SOCIAL FORECASTING: A literature review of research promoted by the United States National Security System to model human behavior

The development of new information and communication technologies increased the volume of information flows within society. For the security forces, this phenomenon presents new opportunities for collecting, processing and analyzing information linked with the opportunity to collect a vast and diver...

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Autores principales:	Rodrigo Fileto Cuerci Maciel, Marta Macedo Kerr Pinheiro, Petra Saskia Bayerl
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN ES FR IT PT
Publicado:	Academia Nacional de Polícia 2021
Materias:	intelligence analysis human behavior social network complex network game theory Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology HV1-9960
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/313a7ca8e9b847968fcd77da3d22e2ad
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:313a7ca8e9b847968fcd77da3d22e2ad2021-12-02T19:41:39ZSOCIAL FORECASTING: A literature review of research promoted by the United States National Security System to model human behavior2178-00132318-691710.31412/rbcp.v12i4.612https://doaj.org/article/313a7ca8e9b847968fcd77da3d22e2ad2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://periodicos.pf.gov.br/index.php/RBCP/article/view/612https://doaj.org/toc/2178-0013https://doaj.org/toc/2318-6917The development of new information and communication technologies increased the volume of information flows within society. For the security forces, this phenomenon presents new opportunities for collecting, processing and analyzing information linked with the opportunity to collect a vast and diverse amount data, and at the same time it requires new organizational and individual competences to deal with the new forms and huge volumes of information. Our study aimed to outline the research areas funded by the US defense and intelligence agencies with respect to social forecasting. Based on bibliometric techniques, we clustered 2688 articles funded by US defense or intelligence agencies in five research areas: a) Complex networks, b) Social networks, c) Human reasoning, d) Optimization algorithms, and e) Neuroscience. After that, we analyzed qualitatively the most cited papers in each area. Our analysis identified that the research areas are compatible with the US intelligence doctrine. Besides that, we considered that the research areas could be incorporated in the work of security forces provided that basic training be offered. The basic training would not only enhance capabilities of law enforcement agencies but also help safeguard against (unwitting) biases and mistakes in the analysis of data.Rodrigo Fileto Cuerci MacielMarta Macedo Kerr PinheiroPetra Saskia BayerlAcademia Nacional de Políciaarticleintelligence analysishuman behaviorsocial networkcomplex networkgame theorySocial pathology. Social and public welfare. CriminologyHV1-9960ENESFRITPTRevista Brasileira de Ciências Policiais, Vol 12, Iss 4, Pp 23-52 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN ES FR IT PT
topic	intelligence analysis human behavior social network complex network game theory Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology HV1-9960
spellingShingle	intelligence analysis human behavior social network complex network game theory Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology HV1-9960 Rodrigo Fileto Cuerci Maciel Marta Macedo Kerr Pinheiro Petra Saskia Bayerl SOCIAL FORECASTING: A literature review of research promoted by the United States National Security System to model human behavior
description	The development of new information and communication technologies increased the volume of information flows within society. For the security forces, this phenomenon presents new opportunities for collecting, processing and analyzing information linked with the opportunity to collect a vast and diverse amount data, and at the same time it requires new organizational and individual competences to deal with the new forms and huge volumes of information. Our study aimed to outline the research areas funded by the US defense and intelligence agencies with respect to social forecasting. Based on bibliometric techniques, we clustered 2688 articles funded by US defense or intelligence agencies in five research areas: a) Complex networks, b) Social networks, c) Human reasoning, d) Optimization algorithms, and e) Neuroscience. After that, we analyzed qualitatively the most cited papers in each area. Our analysis identified that the research areas are compatible with the US intelligence doctrine. Besides that, we considered that the research areas could be incorporated in the work of security forces provided that basic training be offered. The basic training would not only enhance capabilities of law enforcement agencies but also help safeguard against (unwitting) biases and mistakes in the analysis of data.
format	article
author	Rodrigo Fileto Cuerci Maciel Marta Macedo Kerr Pinheiro Petra Saskia Bayerl
author_facet	Rodrigo Fileto Cuerci Maciel Marta Macedo Kerr Pinheiro Petra Saskia Bayerl
author_sort	Rodrigo Fileto Cuerci Maciel
title	SOCIAL FORECASTING: A literature review of research promoted by the United States National Security System to model human behavior
title_short	SOCIAL FORECASTING: A literature review of research promoted by the United States National Security System to model human behavior
title_full	SOCIAL FORECASTING: A literature review of research promoted by the United States National Security System to model human behavior
title_fullStr	SOCIAL FORECASTING: A literature review of research promoted by the United States National Security System to model human behavior
title_full_unstemmed	SOCIAL FORECASTING: A literature review of research promoted by the United States National Security System to model human behavior
title_sort	social forecasting: a literature review of research promoted by the united states national security system to model human behavior
publisher	Academia Nacional de Polícia
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/313a7ca8e9b847968fcd77da3d22e2ad
work_keys_str_mv	AT rodrigofiletocuercimaciel socialforecastingaliteraturereviewofresearchpromotedbytheunitedstatesnationalsecuritysystemtomodelhumanbehavior AT martamacedokerrpinheiro socialforecastingaliteraturereviewofresearchpromotedbytheunitedstatesnationalsecuritysystemtomodelhumanbehavior AT petrasaskiabayerl socialforecastingaliteraturereviewofresearchpromotedbytheunitedstatesnationalsecuritysystemtomodelhumanbehavior
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SOCIAL FORECASTING: A literature review of research promoted by the United States National Security System to model human behavior

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