Spatial variations in the warming trend and the transition to more severe weather in midlatitudes

Abstract Due to various feedback processes called Arctic amplification, the high-latitudes’ response to increases in radiative forcing is much larger than elsewhere in the world, with a warming more than twice the global average. Since the 1990’s, this rapid warming of the Arctic was accompanied by...

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Autores principales:	Francisco Estrada, Dukpa Kim, Pierre Perron
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/31b68012184047a89b25d76c422d6796
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:31b68012184047a89b25d76c422d67962021-12-02T15:13:59ZSpatial variations in the warming trend and the transition to more severe weather in midlatitudes10.1038/s41598-020-80701-72045-2322https://doaj.org/article/31b68012184047a89b25d76c422d67962021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80701-7https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Due to various feedback processes called Arctic amplification, the high-latitudes’ response to increases in radiative forcing is much larger than elsewhere in the world, with a warming more than twice the global average. Since the 1990’s, this rapid warming of the Arctic was accompanied by no-warming or cooling over midlatitudes in the Northern Hemisphere in winter (the hiatus). The decrease in the thermal contrast between Arctic and midlatitudes has been connected to extreme weather events in midlatitudes via, e.g., shifts in the jet stream towards the equator and increases in the probability of high-latitude atmospheric blocking. Here we present an observational attribution study showing the spatial structure of the response to changes in radiative forcing. The results also connect the hiatus with diminished contrast between temperatures over regions in the Arctic and midlatitudes. Recent changes in these regional warming trends are linked to international actions such as the Montreal Protocol, and illustrate how changes in radiative forcing can trigger unexpected responses from the climate system. The lesson for climate policy is that human intervention with the climate is already large enough that even if stabilization was attained, impacts from an adjusting climate are to be expected.Francisco EstradaDukpa KimPierre PerronNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Francisco Estrada Dukpa Kim Pierre Perron Spatial variations in the warming trend and the transition to more severe weather in midlatitudes
description	Abstract Due to various feedback processes called Arctic amplification, the high-latitudes’ response to increases in radiative forcing is much larger than elsewhere in the world, with a warming more than twice the global average. Since the 1990’s, this rapid warming of the Arctic was accompanied by no-warming or cooling over midlatitudes in the Northern Hemisphere in winter (the hiatus). The decrease in the thermal contrast between Arctic and midlatitudes has been connected to extreme weather events in midlatitudes via, e.g., shifts in the jet stream towards the equator and increases in the probability of high-latitude atmospheric blocking. Here we present an observational attribution study showing the spatial structure of the response to changes in radiative forcing. The results also connect the hiatus with diminished contrast between temperatures over regions in the Arctic and midlatitudes. Recent changes in these regional warming trends are linked to international actions such as the Montreal Protocol, and illustrate how changes in radiative forcing can trigger unexpected responses from the climate system. The lesson for climate policy is that human intervention with the climate is already large enough that even if stabilization was attained, impacts from an adjusting climate are to be expected.
format	article
author	Francisco Estrada Dukpa Kim Pierre Perron
author_facet	Francisco Estrada Dukpa Kim Pierre Perron
author_sort	Francisco Estrada
title	Spatial variations in the warming trend and the transition to more severe weather in midlatitudes
title_short	Spatial variations in the warming trend and the transition to more severe weather in midlatitudes
title_full	Spatial variations in the warming trend and the transition to more severe weather in midlatitudes
title_fullStr	Spatial variations in the warming trend and the transition to more severe weather in midlatitudes
title_full_unstemmed	Spatial variations in the warming trend and the transition to more severe weather in midlatitudes
title_sort	spatial variations in the warming trend and the transition to more severe weather in midlatitudes
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/31b68012184047a89b25d76c422d6796
work_keys_str_mv	AT franciscoestrada spatialvariationsinthewarmingtrendandthetransitiontomoresevereweatherinmidlatitudes AT dukpakim spatialvariationsinthewarmingtrendandthetransitiontomoresevereweatherinmidlatitudes AT pierreperron spatialvariationsinthewarmingtrendandthetransitiontomoresevereweatherinmidlatitudes
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Spatial variations in the warming trend and the transition to more severe weather in midlatitudes

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