Health impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden

Abstract Raising tobacco prices effectively reduces smoking, the main risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Using the Health Impact Assessment tool “DYNAMO-HIA”, this study quantified the reduction in COPD burden that would occur in Italy, England and Sweden over 40 years if...

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Autores principales:	Elaine Fuertes, Alessandro Marcon, Laura Potts, Giancarlo Pesce, Stefan K. Lhachimi, Virjal Jani, Lucia Calciano, Alex Adamson, Jennifer K. Quint, Debbie Jarvis, Christer Janson, Simone Accordini, Cosetta Minelli
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/31e76db0d25f44d3af7c0a327b135bd7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:31e76db0d25f44d3af7c0a327b135bd72021-12-02T13:27:32ZHealth impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden10.1038/s41598-021-81876-32045-2322https://doaj.org/article/31e76db0d25f44d3af7c0a327b135bd72021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81876-3https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Raising tobacco prices effectively reduces smoking, the main risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Using the Health Impact Assessment tool “DYNAMO-HIA”, this study quantified the reduction in COPD burden that would occur in Italy, England and Sweden over 40 years if tobacco prices were increased by 5%, 10% and 20% over current local prices, with larger increases considered in secondary analyses. A dynamic Markov-based multi-state simulation modelling approach estimated the effect of changes in smoking prevalence states and probabilities of transitioning between smoking states on future smoking prevalence, COPD burden and life expectancy in each country. Data inputs included demographics, smoking prevalences and behaviour and COPD burden from national data resources, large observational cohorts and datasets within DYNAMO-HIA. In the 20% price increase scenario, the cumulative number of COPD incident cases saved over 40 years was 479,059 and 479,302 in Italy and England (populous countries with higher smoking prevalences) and 83,694 in Sweden (smaller country with lower smoking prevalence). Gains in overall life expectancy ranged from 0.25 to 0.45 years for a 20 year-old. Increasing tobacco prices would reduce COPD burden and increase life expectancy through smoking behavior changes, with modest but important public health benefits observed in all three countries.Elaine FuertesAlessandro MarconLaura PottsGiancarlo PesceStefan K. LhachimiVirjal JaniLucia CalcianoAlex AdamsonJennifer K. QuintDebbie JarvisChrister JansonSimone AccordiniCosetta MinelliNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Elaine Fuertes Alessandro Marcon Laura Potts Giancarlo Pesce Stefan K. Lhachimi Virjal Jani Lucia Calciano Alex Adamson Jennifer K. Quint Debbie Jarvis Christer Janson Simone Accordini Cosetta Minelli Health impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden
description	Abstract Raising tobacco prices effectively reduces smoking, the main risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Using the Health Impact Assessment tool “DYNAMO-HIA”, this study quantified the reduction in COPD burden that would occur in Italy, England and Sweden over 40 years if tobacco prices were increased by 5%, 10% and 20% over current local prices, with larger increases considered in secondary analyses. A dynamic Markov-based multi-state simulation modelling approach estimated the effect of changes in smoking prevalence states and probabilities of transitioning between smoking states on future smoking prevalence, COPD burden and life expectancy in each country. Data inputs included demographics, smoking prevalences and behaviour and COPD burden from national data resources, large observational cohorts and datasets within DYNAMO-HIA. In the 20% price increase scenario, the cumulative number of COPD incident cases saved over 40 years was 479,059 and 479,302 in Italy and England (populous countries with higher smoking prevalences) and 83,694 in Sweden (smaller country with lower smoking prevalence). Gains in overall life expectancy ranged from 0.25 to 0.45 years for a 20 year-old. Increasing tobacco prices would reduce COPD burden and increase life expectancy through smoking behavior changes, with modest but important public health benefits observed in all three countries.
format	article
author	Elaine Fuertes Alessandro Marcon Laura Potts Giancarlo Pesce Stefan K. Lhachimi Virjal Jani Lucia Calciano Alex Adamson Jennifer K. Quint Debbie Jarvis Christer Janson Simone Accordini Cosetta Minelli
author_facet	Elaine Fuertes Alessandro Marcon Laura Potts Giancarlo Pesce Stefan K. Lhachimi Virjal Jani Lucia Calciano Alex Adamson Jennifer K. Quint Debbie Jarvis Christer Janson Simone Accordini Cosetta Minelli
author_sort	Elaine Fuertes
title	Health impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden
title_short	Health impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden
title_full	Health impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden
title_fullStr	Health impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden
title_full_unstemmed	Health impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden
title_sort	health impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on copd burden in italy, england and sweden
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/31e76db0d25f44d3af7c0a327b135bd7
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Health impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden

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