Development of an Integrated Model to Assess the Impact of Agricultural Practices and Land Use on Agricultural Production in Morocco under Climate Stress over the Next Twenty Years

Climate change is one of the major risks facing developing countries in Africa for which agriculture is a predominant part in the economy. Alterations in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) could lead to a decline in agricul...

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Autores principales:	Nassima Amiri, Rachid Lahlali, Said Amiri, Moussa EL Jarroudi, Mohammed Yacoubi Khebiza, Mohammed Messouli
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	land use demography climate change technological indicators human development Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/31f923c6e8b4406d880ee0add0611594
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:31f923c6e8b4406d880ee0add06115942021-11-11T19:37:26ZDevelopment of an Integrated Model to Assess the Impact of Agricultural Practices and Land Use on Agricultural Production in Morocco under Climate Stress over the Next Twenty Years10.3390/su1321119432071-1050https://doaj.org/article/31f923c6e8b4406d880ee0add06115942021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/21/11943https://doaj.org/toc/2071-1050Climate change is one of the major risks facing developing countries in Africa for which agriculture is a predominant part in the economy. Alterations in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) could lead to a decline in agricultural production in many areas requiring significant changes in agricultural practices and land distribution. The study provided estimates of the economic impacts of climate change, compared these with historical impacts of drought spells, and estimated the extent to which the current Moroccan agricultural development and investment strategy, the Plan Maroc Vert, helps in agricultural adaptation to climate change and uncertainty. The aim of this study was to quantify the effects of climate change on the overall economy by using an integrated framework incorporating a computable general equilibrium model. A concomitant factor to climate change will be the increase in population and its distribution and level of consumption, which will also influence agricultural production strategies, the conversion of agricultural land, the type of irrigation, and technological development. We demonstrated how changes in cereal production and area, affluence, and climate (rainfall and temperature) can be acquired for 12 regions of Morocco and used to develop and validate an earth system model in relation to the environment and socio-economic level, which projects their impact on current and potential land use over the next 20 years. We used different mathematical equations based on cereal area and production, population, consumption (kg/person), and change in climate (temperature and rainfall) in <i>bour</i> and irrigated areas for the growing season of 2014 in 12 regions to project agricultural land use over the next 20 years. Therefore, several possible scenarios were investigated to explore how variations in climate change, socio-economic level, and technological development will affect the future of agricultural land use over the next 20 years, which in turn could have important implications for human well-being. Among the 12 Moroccan regions, only 4 had a surplus of cereal production compared to their local consumption. The increase in population will generate a cereal deficit in 2024 and 2034, thus lowering the average annual quantity available per capita of cereals from 204.75 to 160.61 kg/p in 2014 and 2034, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the amount of cereals per person by 5 kg/p and 25 kg/p so that the 2014 production could satisfy the population projected in 2024 and 2034. We found that cereal production will decrease with increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation according to the simulated scenarios, which might not satisfy the growing population in 2024 and 2034. This study provides a practical tool that can be used to provide policy makers with advice on food security assurance policy based on our current knowledge of the impending onset of climate change, including socio-economic statistics and the agricultural constraints of cereals in the 12 regions of Morocco.Nassima AmiriRachid LahlaliSaid AmiriMoussa EL JarroudiMohammed Yacoubi KhebizaMohammed MessouliMDPI AGarticleland usedemographyclimate changetechnological indicatorshuman developmentEnvironmental effects of industries and plantsTD194-195Renewable energy sourcesTJ807-830Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENSustainability, Vol 13, Iss 11943, p 11943 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	land use demography climate change technological indicators human development Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	land use demography climate change technological indicators human development Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Nassima Amiri Rachid Lahlali Said Amiri Moussa EL Jarroudi Mohammed Yacoubi Khebiza Mohammed Messouli Development of an Integrated Model to Assess the Impact of Agricultural Practices and Land Use on Agricultural Production in Morocco under Climate Stress over the Next Twenty Years
description	Climate change is one of the major risks facing developing countries in Africa for which agriculture is a predominant part in the economy. Alterations in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) could lead to a decline in agricultural production in many areas requiring significant changes in agricultural practices and land distribution. The study provided estimates of the economic impacts of climate change, compared these with historical impacts of drought spells, and estimated the extent to which the current Moroccan agricultural development and investment strategy, the Plan Maroc Vert, helps in agricultural adaptation to climate change and uncertainty. The aim of this study was to quantify the effects of climate change on the overall economy by using an integrated framework incorporating a computable general equilibrium model. A concomitant factor to climate change will be the increase in population and its distribution and level of consumption, which will also influence agricultural production strategies, the conversion of agricultural land, the type of irrigation, and technological development. We demonstrated how changes in cereal production and area, affluence, and climate (rainfall and temperature) can be acquired for 12 regions of Morocco and used to develop and validate an earth system model in relation to the environment and socio-economic level, which projects their impact on current and potential land use over the next 20 years. We used different mathematical equations based on cereal area and production, population, consumption (kg/person), and change in climate (temperature and rainfall) in <i>bour</i> and irrigated areas for the growing season of 2014 in 12 regions to project agricultural land use over the next 20 years. Therefore, several possible scenarios were investigated to explore how variations in climate change, socio-economic level, and technological development will affect the future of agricultural land use over the next 20 years, which in turn could have important implications for human well-being. Among the 12 Moroccan regions, only 4 had a surplus of cereal production compared to their local consumption. The increase in population will generate a cereal deficit in 2024 and 2034, thus lowering the average annual quantity available per capita of cereals from 204.75 to 160.61 kg/p in 2014 and 2034, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the amount of cereals per person by 5 kg/p and 25 kg/p so that the 2014 production could satisfy the population projected in 2024 and 2034. We found that cereal production will decrease with increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation according to the simulated scenarios, which might not satisfy the growing population in 2024 and 2034. This study provides a practical tool that can be used to provide policy makers with advice on food security assurance policy based on our current knowledge of the impending onset of climate change, including socio-economic statistics and the agricultural constraints of cereals in the 12 regions of Morocco.
format	article
author	Nassima Amiri Rachid Lahlali Said Amiri Moussa EL Jarroudi Mohammed Yacoubi Khebiza Mohammed Messouli
author_facet	Nassima Amiri Rachid Lahlali Said Amiri Moussa EL Jarroudi Mohammed Yacoubi Khebiza Mohammed Messouli
author_sort	Nassima Amiri
title	Development of an Integrated Model to Assess the Impact of Agricultural Practices and Land Use on Agricultural Production in Morocco under Climate Stress over the Next Twenty Years
title_short	Development of an Integrated Model to Assess the Impact of Agricultural Practices and Land Use on Agricultural Production in Morocco under Climate Stress over the Next Twenty Years
title_full	Development of an Integrated Model to Assess the Impact of Agricultural Practices and Land Use on Agricultural Production in Morocco under Climate Stress over the Next Twenty Years
title_fullStr	Development of an Integrated Model to Assess the Impact of Agricultural Practices and Land Use on Agricultural Production in Morocco under Climate Stress over the Next Twenty Years
title_full_unstemmed	Development of an Integrated Model to Assess the Impact of Agricultural Practices and Land Use on Agricultural Production in Morocco under Climate Stress over the Next Twenty Years
title_sort	development of an integrated model to assess the impact of agricultural practices and land use on agricultural production in morocco under climate stress over the next twenty years
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/31f923c6e8b4406d880ee0add0611594
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Development of an Integrated Model to Assess the Impact of Agricultural Practices and Land Use on Agricultural Production in Morocco under Climate Stress over the Next Twenty Years

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