Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya

Kenya is highly dependent on precipitation for both food and water security. Farmers and pastoralists rely on rain to provide water for crops and vegetation to feed herds. As such, precipitation forecasts can be useful tools to inform decision makers and potentially allow the preparation for such ev...

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Autores principales: Sara Miller, Vikalp Mishra, W. Lee Ellenburg, Emily Adams, Jason Roberts, Ashutosh Limaye, Robert Griffin
Formato: article
Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: MDPI AG 2021
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Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/32569f9d792042038cf88f3c04b0e8f8
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:32569f9d792042038cf88f3c04b0e8f82021-11-25T16:43:50ZAnalysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya10.3390/atmos121113712073-4433https://doaj.org/article/32569f9d792042038cf88f3c04b0e8f82021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/11/1371https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433Kenya is highly dependent on precipitation for both food and water security. Farmers and pastoralists rely on rain to provide water for crops and vegetation to feed herds. As such, precipitation forecasts can be useful tools to inform decision makers and potentially allow the preparation for such events as drought. This study assessed the predictability of a seasonal forecast (CFSv2) and a short-term precipitation forecast (CHIRPS-GEFS) over Kenya. The short-term forecast was assessed on its ability to predict the onset date of the rainy season, and the skill of the seasonal forecast in predicting abnormal precipitation patterns. CHIRPS-GEFS provided a useful starting point to estimate the onset date, but during the long rains in the southwest, where agriculture is concentrated, differences between the predicted and actual onset dates were large (over 20 days). Assessments for CFSv2 generally displayed lower forecast skill over highlands and coastal regions at a seasonal scale. The CFSv2 forecast skill varied widely over individual months and lead times, but over whole rainy seasons, CFSv2 was more skillful than a random forecast at all lead times in the major agricultural areas of Kenya. This research fills a critical research and application gap in understanding the forecast precipitation skill for onset and sub-seasonal prediction.Sara MillerVikalp MishraW. Lee EllenburgEmily AdamsJason RobertsAshutosh LimayeRobert GriffinMDPI AGarticleforecast assessmentKenyaseasonal forecastrainfall onsetMeteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENAtmosphere, Vol 12, Iss 1371, p 1371 (2021)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic forecast assessment
Kenya
seasonal forecast
rainfall onset
Meteorology. Climatology
QC851-999
spellingShingle forecast assessment
Kenya
seasonal forecast
rainfall onset
Meteorology. Climatology
QC851-999
Sara Miller
Vikalp Mishra
W. Lee Ellenburg
Emily Adams
Jason Roberts
Ashutosh Limaye
Robert Griffin
Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya
description Kenya is highly dependent on precipitation for both food and water security. Farmers and pastoralists rely on rain to provide water for crops and vegetation to feed herds. As such, precipitation forecasts can be useful tools to inform decision makers and potentially allow the preparation for such events as drought. This study assessed the predictability of a seasonal forecast (CFSv2) and a short-term precipitation forecast (CHIRPS-GEFS) over Kenya. The short-term forecast was assessed on its ability to predict the onset date of the rainy season, and the skill of the seasonal forecast in predicting abnormal precipitation patterns. CHIRPS-GEFS provided a useful starting point to estimate the onset date, but during the long rains in the southwest, where agriculture is concentrated, differences between the predicted and actual onset dates were large (over 20 days). Assessments for CFSv2 generally displayed lower forecast skill over highlands and coastal regions at a seasonal scale. The CFSv2 forecast skill varied widely over individual months and lead times, but over whole rainy seasons, CFSv2 was more skillful than a random forecast at all lead times in the major agricultural areas of Kenya. This research fills a critical research and application gap in understanding the forecast precipitation skill for onset and sub-seasonal prediction.
format article
author Sara Miller
Vikalp Mishra
W. Lee Ellenburg
Emily Adams
Jason Roberts
Ashutosh Limaye
Robert Griffin
author_facet Sara Miller
Vikalp Mishra
W. Lee Ellenburg
Emily Adams
Jason Roberts
Ashutosh Limaye
Robert Griffin
author_sort Sara Miller
title Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya
title_short Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya
title_full Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya
title_fullStr Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya
title_sort analysis of a short-term and a seasonal precipitation forecast over kenya
publisher MDPI AG
publishDate 2021
url https://doaj.org/article/32569f9d792042038cf88f3c04b0e8f8
work_keys_str_mv AT saramiller analysisofashorttermandaseasonalprecipitationforecastoverkenya
AT vikalpmishra analysisofashorttermandaseasonalprecipitationforecastoverkenya
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AT emilyadams analysisofashorttermandaseasonalprecipitationforecastoverkenya
AT jasonroberts analysisofashorttermandaseasonalprecipitationforecastoverkenya
AT ashutoshlimaye analysisofashorttermandaseasonalprecipitationforecastoverkenya
AT robertgriffin analysisofashorttermandaseasonalprecipitationforecastoverkenya
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