Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya

Kenya is highly dependent on precipitation for both food and water security. Farmers and pastoralists rely on rain to provide water for crops and vegetation to feed herds. As such, precipitation forecasts can be useful tools to inform decision makers and potentially allow the preparation for such ev...

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Autores principales:	Sara Miller, Vikalp Mishra, W. Lee Ellenburg, Emily Adams, Jason Roberts, Ashutosh Limaye, Robert Griffin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	forecast assessment Kenya seasonal forecast rainfall onset Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/32569f9d792042038cf88f3c04b0e8f8
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:32569f9d792042038cf88f3c04b0e8f82021-11-25T16:43:50ZAnalysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya10.3390/atmos121113712073-4433https://doaj.org/article/32569f9d792042038cf88f3c04b0e8f82021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/11/1371https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433Kenya is highly dependent on precipitation for both food and water security. Farmers and pastoralists rely on rain to provide water for crops and vegetation to feed herds. As such, precipitation forecasts can be useful tools to inform decision makers and potentially allow the preparation for such events as drought. This study assessed the predictability of a seasonal forecast (CFSv2) and a short-term precipitation forecast (CHIRPS-GEFS) over Kenya. The short-term forecast was assessed on its ability to predict the onset date of the rainy season, and the skill of the seasonal forecast in predicting abnormal precipitation patterns. CHIRPS-GEFS provided a useful starting point to estimate the onset date, but during the long rains in the southwest, where agriculture is concentrated, differences between the predicted and actual onset dates were large (over 20 days). Assessments for CFSv2 generally displayed lower forecast skill over highlands and coastal regions at a seasonal scale. The CFSv2 forecast skill varied widely over individual months and lead times, but over whole rainy seasons, CFSv2 was more skillful than a random forecast at all lead times in the major agricultural areas of Kenya. This research fills a critical research and application gap in understanding the forecast precipitation skill for onset and sub-seasonal prediction.Sara MillerVikalp MishraW. Lee EllenburgEmily AdamsJason RobertsAshutosh LimayeRobert GriffinMDPI AGarticleforecast assessmentKenyaseasonal forecastrainfall onsetMeteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENAtmosphere, Vol 12, Iss 1371, p 1371 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	forecast assessment Kenya seasonal forecast rainfall onset Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	forecast assessment Kenya seasonal forecast rainfall onset Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Sara Miller Vikalp Mishra W. Lee Ellenburg Emily Adams Jason Roberts Ashutosh Limaye Robert Griffin Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya
description	Kenya is highly dependent on precipitation for both food and water security. Farmers and pastoralists rely on rain to provide water for crops and vegetation to feed herds. As such, precipitation forecasts can be useful tools to inform decision makers and potentially allow the preparation for such events as drought. This study assessed the predictability of a seasonal forecast (CFSv2) and a short-term precipitation forecast (CHIRPS-GEFS) over Kenya. The short-term forecast was assessed on its ability to predict the onset date of the rainy season, and the skill of the seasonal forecast in predicting abnormal precipitation patterns. CHIRPS-GEFS provided a useful starting point to estimate the onset date, but during the long rains in the southwest, where agriculture is concentrated, differences between the predicted and actual onset dates were large (over 20 days). Assessments for CFSv2 generally displayed lower forecast skill over highlands and coastal regions at a seasonal scale. The CFSv2 forecast skill varied widely over individual months and lead times, but over whole rainy seasons, CFSv2 was more skillful than a random forecast at all lead times in the major agricultural areas of Kenya. This research fills a critical research and application gap in understanding the forecast precipitation skill for onset and sub-seasonal prediction.
format	article
author	Sara Miller Vikalp Mishra W. Lee Ellenburg Emily Adams Jason Roberts Ashutosh Limaye Robert Griffin
author_facet	Sara Miller Vikalp Mishra W. Lee Ellenburg Emily Adams Jason Roberts Ashutosh Limaye Robert Griffin
author_sort	Sara Miller
title	Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya
title_short	Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya
title_full	Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya
title_fullStr	Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya
title_full_unstemmed	Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya
title_sort	analysis of a short-term and a seasonal precipitation forecast over kenya
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/32569f9d792042038cf88f3c04b0e8f8
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Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya

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