Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya
Kenya is highly dependent on precipitation for both food and water security. Farmers and pastoralists rely on rain to provide water for crops and vegetation to feed herds. As such, precipitation forecasts can be useful tools to inform decision makers and potentially allow the preparation for such ev...
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MDPI AG
2021
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oai:doaj.org-article:32569f9d792042038cf88f3c04b0e8f82021-11-25T16:43:50ZAnalysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya10.3390/atmos121113712073-4433https://doaj.org/article/32569f9d792042038cf88f3c04b0e8f82021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/11/1371https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433Kenya is highly dependent on precipitation for both food and water security. Farmers and pastoralists rely on rain to provide water for crops and vegetation to feed herds. As such, precipitation forecasts can be useful tools to inform decision makers and potentially allow the preparation for such events as drought. This study assessed the predictability of a seasonal forecast (CFSv2) and a short-term precipitation forecast (CHIRPS-GEFS) over Kenya. The short-term forecast was assessed on its ability to predict the onset date of the rainy season, and the skill of the seasonal forecast in predicting abnormal precipitation patterns. CHIRPS-GEFS provided a useful starting point to estimate the onset date, but during the long rains in the southwest, where agriculture is concentrated, differences between the predicted and actual onset dates were large (over 20 days). Assessments for CFSv2 generally displayed lower forecast skill over highlands and coastal regions at a seasonal scale. The CFSv2 forecast skill varied widely over individual months and lead times, but over whole rainy seasons, CFSv2 was more skillful than a random forecast at all lead times in the major agricultural areas of Kenya. This research fills a critical research and application gap in understanding the forecast precipitation skill for onset and sub-seasonal prediction.Sara MillerVikalp MishraW. Lee EllenburgEmily AdamsJason RobertsAshutosh LimayeRobert GriffinMDPI AGarticleforecast assessmentKenyaseasonal forecastrainfall onsetMeteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENAtmosphere, Vol 12, Iss 1371, p 1371 (2021) |
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forecast assessment Kenya seasonal forecast rainfall onset Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
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forecast assessment Kenya seasonal forecast rainfall onset Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Sara Miller Vikalp Mishra W. Lee Ellenburg Emily Adams Jason Roberts Ashutosh Limaye Robert Griffin Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya |
description |
Kenya is highly dependent on precipitation for both food and water security. Farmers and pastoralists rely on rain to provide water for crops and vegetation to feed herds. As such, precipitation forecasts can be useful tools to inform decision makers and potentially allow the preparation for such events as drought. This study assessed the predictability of a seasonal forecast (CFSv2) and a short-term precipitation forecast (CHIRPS-GEFS) over Kenya. The short-term forecast was assessed on its ability to predict the onset date of the rainy season, and the skill of the seasonal forecast in predicting abnormal precipitation patterns. CHIRPS-GEFS provided a useful starting point to estimate the onset date, but during the long rains in the southwest, where agriculture is concentrated, differences between the predicted and actual onset dates were large (over 20 days). Assessments for CFSv2 generally displayed lower forecast skill over highlands and coastal regions at a seasonal scale. The CFSv2 forecast skill varied widely over individual months and lead times, but over whole rainy seasons, CFSv2 was more skillful than a random forecast at all lead times in the major agricultural areas of Kenya. This research fills a critical research and application gap in understanding the forecast precipitation skill for onset and sub-seasonal prediction. |
format |
article |
author |
Sara Miller Vikalp Mishra W. Lee Ellenburg Emily Adams Jason Roberts Ashutosh Limaye Robert Griffin |
author_facet |
Sara Miller Vikalp Mishra W. Lee Ellenburg Emily Adams Jason Roberts Ashutosh Limaye Robert Griffin |
author_sort |
Sara Miller |
title |
Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya |
title_short |
Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya |
title_full |
Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya |
title_fullStr |
Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analysis of a Short-Term and a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Kenya |
title_sort |
analysis of a short-term and a seasonal precipitation forecast over kenya |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/32569f9d792042038cf88f3c04b0e8f8 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT saramiller analysisofashorttermandaseasonalprecipitationforecastoverkenya AT vikalpmishra analysisofashorttermandaseasonalprecipitationforecastoverkenya AT wleeellenburg analysisofashorttermandaseasonalprecipitationforecastoverkenya AT emilyadams analysisofashorttermandaseasonalprecipitationforecastoverkenya AT jasonroberts analysisofashorttermandaseasonalprecipitationforecastoverkenya AT ashutoshlimaye analysisofashorttermandaseasonalprecipitationforecastoverkenya AT robertgriffin analysisofashorttermandaseasonalprecipitationforecastoverkenya |
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1718413009943003136 |