On the use of aggregated human mobility data to estimate the reproduction number

Abstract The reproduction number of an infectious disease, such as CoViD-19, can be described through a modified version of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with time-dependent contact rate, where mobility data are used as proxy of average movement trends and interpersonal distances. W...

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Autores principales:	Fabio Vanni, David Lambert, Luigi Palatella, Paolo Grigolini
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/329e30d2cf8842e095d5c9beff2bdf42
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:329e30d2cf8842e095d5c9beff2bdf422021-12-05T12:15:39ZOn the use of aggregated human mobility data to estimate the reproduction number10.1038/s41598-021-02760-82045-2322https://doaj.org/article/329e30d2cf8842e095d5c9beff2bdf422021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-02760-8https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The reproduction number of an infectious disease, such as CoViD-19, can be described through a modified version of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with time-dependent contact rate, where mobility data are used as proxy of average movement trends and interpersonal distances. We introduce a theoretical framework to explain and predict changes in the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in terms of aggregated individual mobility and interpersonal proximity (alongside other epidemiological and environmental variables) during and after the lockdown period. We use an infection-age structured model described by a renewal equation. The model predicts the evolution of the reproduction number up to a week ahead of well-established estimates used in the literature. We show how lockdown policies, via reduction of proximity and mobility, reduce the impact of CoViD-19 and mitigate the risk of disease resurgence. We validate our theoretical framework using data from Google, Voxel51, Unacast, The CoViD-19 Mobility Data Network, and Analisi Distribuzione Aiuti.Fabio VanniDavid LambertLuigi PalatellaPaolo GrigoliniNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Fabio Vanni David Lambert Luigi Palatella Paolo Grigolini On the use of aggregated human mobility data to estimate the reproduction number
description	Abstract The reproduction number of an infectious disease, such as CoViD-19, can be described through a modified version of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with time-dependent contact rate, where mobility data are used as proxy of average movement trends and interpersonal distances. We introduce a theoretical framework to explain and predict changes in the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in terms of aggregated individual mobility and interpersonal proximity (alongside other epidemiological and environmental variables) during and after the lockdown period. We use an infection-age structured model described by a renewal equation. The model predicts the evolution of the reproduction number up to a week ahead of well-established estimates used in the literature. We show how lockdown policies, via reduction of proximity and mobility, reduce the impact of CoViD-19 and mitigate the risk of disease resurgence. We validate our theoretical framework using data from Google, Voxel51, Unacast, The CoViD-19 Mobility Data Network, and Analisi Distribuzione Aiuti.
format	article
author	Fabio Vanni David Lambert Luigi Palatella Paolo Grigolini
author_facet	Fabio Vanni David Lambert Luigi Palatella Paolo Grigolini
author_sort	Fabio Vanni
title	On the use of aggregated human mobility data to estimate the reproduction number
title_short	On the use of aggregated human mobility data to estimate the reproduction number
title_full	On the use of aggregated human mobility data to estimate the reproduction number
title_fullStr	On the use of aggregated human mobility data to estimate the reproduction number
title_full_unstemmed	On the use of aggregated human mobility data to estimate the reproduction number
title_sort	on the use of aggregated human mobility data to estimate the reproduction number
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/329e30d2cf8842e095d5c9beff2bdf42
work_keys_str_mv	AT fabiovanni ontheuseofaggregatedhumanmobilitydatatoestimatethereproductionnumber AT davidlambert ontheuseofaggregatedhumanmobilitydatatoestimatethereproductionnumber AT luigipalatella ontheuseofaggregatedhumanmobilitydatatoestimatethereproductionnumber AT paologrigolini ontheuseofaggregatedhumanmobilitydatatoestimatethereproductionnumber
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On the use of aggregated human mobility data to estimate the reproduction number

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