Recognizing duration effects in multistate population models

Abstract The risk of many demographic events varies by both current state and duration in that state. However, the use of such semi-Markov models has been substantially constrained by data limitations. Here, a new specification of the semi-Markov transition probability matrix in terms of the underly...

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Autor principal:	Robert Schoen
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	SpringerOpen 2021
Materias:	Multistate models Semi-Markov Remarriage by duration since divorce Divorce by duration of marriage Semi-Markov transition probability matrix Cross-product ratios Demography. Population. Vital events HB848-3697
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/332a7f89acd74403b04c78747b0c8d74
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:332a7f89acd74403b04c78747b0c8d742021-11-07T12:15:59ZRecognizing duration effects in multistate population models10.1186/s41118-021-00120-y2035-5556https://doaj.org/article/332a7f89acd74403b04c78747b0c8d742021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-021-00120-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/2035-5556Abstract The risk of many demographic events varies by both current state and duration in that state. However, the use of such semi-Markov models has been substantially constrained by data limitations. Here, a new specification of the semi-Markov transition probability matrix in terms of the underlying rates is provided, and a general procedure is developed to estimate semi-Markov probabilities and rates from adjacent population data. Multistate models recognizing marriage and divorce by duration in state are constructed for United States Females, 1995. The results show that recognizing duration in the married and divorced states adds significantly to the model’s analytical value. Extending the constant-α method to semi-Markov models, 2000–2005 U.S. population data and 1995 cross-product ratios are employed to estimate 2000–2005 duration-dependent transfer probabilities and rates. The present analyses provide new relationships between probabilities and rates in semi-Markov models. Extending the constant cross-product ratio estimation approach opens new sources of data and expands the range of data susceptible to state-duration analyses.Robert SchoenSpringerOpenarticleMultistate modelsSemi-MarkovRemarriage by duration since divorceDivorce by duration of marriageSemi-Markov transition probability matrixCross-product ratiosDemography. Population. Vital eventsHB848-3697ENGenus, Vol 77, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Multistate models Semi-Markov Remarriage by duration since divorce Divorce by duration of marriage Semi-Markov transition probability matrix Cross-product ratios Demography. Population. Vital events HB848-3697
spellingShingle	Multistate models Semi-Markov Remarriage by duration since divorce Divorce by duration of marriage Semi-Markov transition probability matrix Cross-product ratios Demography. Population. Vital events HB848-3697 Robert Schoen Recognizing duration effects in multistate population models
description	Abstract The risk of many demographic events varies by both current state and duration in that state. However, the use of such semi-Markov models has been substantially constrained by data limitations. Here, a new specification of the semi-Markov transition probability matrix in terms of the underlying rates is provided, and a general procedure is developed to estimate semi-Markov probabilities and rates from adjacent population data. Multistate models recognizing marriage and divorce by duration in state are constructed for United States Females, 1995. The results show that recognizing duration in the married and divorced states adds significantly to the model’s analytical value. Extending the constant-α method to semi-Markov models, 2000–2005 U.S. population data and 1995 cross-product ratios are employed to estimate 2000–2005 duration-dependent transfer probabilities and rates. The present analyses provide new relationships between probabilities and rates in semi-Markov models. Extending the constant cross-product ratio estimation approach opens new sources of data and expands the range of data susceptible to state-duration analyses.
format	article
author	Robert Schoen
author_facet	Robert Schoen
author_sort	Robert Schoen
title	Recognizing duration effects in multistate population models
title_short	Recognizing duration effects in multistate population models
title_full	Recognizing duration effects in multistate population models
title_fullStr	Recognizing duration effects in multistate population models
title_full_unstemmed	Recognizing duration effects in multistate population models
title_sort	recognizing duration effects in multistate population models
publisher	SpringerOpen
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/332a7f89acd74403b04c78747b0c8d74
work_keys_str_mv	AT robertschoen recognizingdurationeffectsinmultistatepopulationmodels
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Recognizing duration effects in multistate population models

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