The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics.

<h4>Background</h4>The 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics in Italy was characterized by a notable pattern: as it emerged from the analysis of influenza-like illness data, after an initial period (September-mid-October 2009) characterized by a slow exponential increase in the weekly in...

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Autores principales:	Piero Poletti, Marco Ajelli, Stefano Merler
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2011
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/337173046583495b98545c8c87aaf512
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:337173046583495b98545c8c87aaf5122021-11-18T06:59:10ZThe effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0016460https://doaj.org/article/337173046583495b98545c8c87aaf5122011-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/21326878/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>The 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics in Italy was characterized by a notable pattern: as it emerged from the analysis of influenza-like illness data, after an initial period (September-mid-October 2009) characterized by a slow exponential increase in the weekly incidence, a sudden and sharp increase of the growth rate was observed by mid-October. The aim here is to understand whether spontaneous behavioral changes in the population could be responsible for such a pattern of epidemic spread.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>In order to face this issue, a mathematical model of influenza transmission, accounting for spontaneous behavioral changes driven by cost/benefit considerations on the perceived risk of infection, is proposed and validated against empirical epidemiological data. The performed investigation revealed that an initial overestimation of the risk of infection in the general population, possibly induced by the high concern for the emergence of a new influenza pandemic, results in a pattern of spread compliant with the observed one. This finding is also supported by the analysis of antiviral drugs purchase over the epidemic period. Moreover, by assuming a generation time of 2.5 days, the initially diffuse misperception of the risk of infection led to a relatively low value of the reproductive number , which increased to in the subsequent phase of the pandemic.<h4>Conclusions/significance</h4>This study highlights that spontaneous behavioral changes in the population, not accounted by the large majority of influenza transmission models, can not be neglected to correctly inform public health decisions. In fact, individual choices can drastically affect the epidemic spread, by altering timing, dynamics and overall number of cases.Piero PolettiMarco AjelliStefano MerlerPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 6, Iss 2, p e16460 (2011)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Piero Poletti Marco Ajelli Stefano Merler The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics.
description	<h4>Background</h4>The 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics in Italy was characterized by a notable pattern: as it emerged from the analysis of influenza-like illness data, after an initial period (September-mid-October 2009) characterized by a slow exponential increase in the weekly incidence, a sudden and sharp increase of the growth rate was observed by mid-October. The aim here is to understand whether spontaneous behavioral changes in the population could be responsible for such a pattern of epidemic spread.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>In order to face this issue, a mathematical model of influenza transmission, accounting for spontaneous behavioral changes driven by cost/benefit considerations on the perceived risk of infection, is proposed and validated against empirical epidemiological data. The performed investigation revealed that an initial overestimation of the risk of infection in the general population, possibly induced by the high concern for the emergence of a new influenza pandemic, results in a pattern of spread compliant with the observed one. This finding is also supported by the analysis of antiviral drugs purchase over the epidemic period. Moreover, by assuming a generation time of 2.5 days, the initially diffuse misperception of the risk of infection led to a relatively low value of the reproductive number , which increased to in the subsequent phase of the pandemic.<h4>Conclusions/significance</h4>This study highlights that spontaneous behavioral changes in the population, not accounted by the large majority of influenza transmission models, can not be neglected to correctly inform public health decisions. In fact, individual choices can drastically affect the epidemic spread, by altering timing, dynamics and overall number of cases.
format	article
author	Piero Poletti Marco Ajelli Stefano Merler
author_facet	Piero Poletti Marco Ajelli Stefano Merler
author_sort	Piero Poletti
title	The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics.
title_short	The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics.
title_full	The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics.
title_fullStr	The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics.
title_full_unstemmed	The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics.
title_sort	effect of risk perception on the 2009 h1n1 pandemic influenza dynamics.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2011
url	https://doaj.org/article/337173046583495b98545c8c87aaf512
work_keys_str_mv	AT pieropoletti theeffectofriskperceptiononthe2009h1n1pandemicinfluenzadynamics AT marcoajelli theeffectofriskperceptiononthe2009h1n1pandemicinfluenzadynamics AT stefanomerler theeffectofriskperceptiononthe2009h1n1pandemicinfluenzadynamics AT pieropoletti effectofriskperceptiononthe2009h1n1pandemicinfluenzadynamics AT marcoajelli effectofriskperceptiononthe2009h1n1pandemicinfluenzadynamics AT stefanomerler effectofriskperceptiononthe2009h1n1pandemicinfluenzadynamics
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The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics.

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