On the next generation (NextGen) seasonal prediction system to enhance climate services over Ethiopia

In their recent seasonal forecast guidance, the World Meteorological Organization recommended using an objective seasonal forecast system that includes a traceable, reproducible, and well-documented set of steps. Such a forecast system is the backbone of any successful climate service, which should...

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Autores principales:	Nachiketa Acharya, Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Adrajow Admasu, Asaminew Teshome, Kyle Joseph Chen Hall
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Ethiopian rainfall season NextGen Seasonal forecast Calibrated multi-model ensemble Climate services Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/33b1d6b178b24e93ae4870a67a00d13f
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:33b1d6b178b24e93ae4870a67a00d13f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:33b1d6b178b24e93ae4870a67a00d13f2021-11-22T04:27:55ZOn the next generation (NextGen) seasonal prediction system to enhance climate services over Ethiopia2405-880710.1016/j.cliser.2021.100272https://doaj.org/article/33b1d6b178b24e93ae4870a67a00d13f2021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880721000601https://doaj.org/toc/2405-8807In their recent seasonal forecast guidance, the World Meteorological Organization recommended using an objective seasonal forecast system that includes a traceable, reproducible, and well-documented set of steps. Such a forecast system is the backbone of any successful climate service, which should provide advanced warning to government, industry, and communities, and thereby help reduce the impacts of adverse climatic conditions. In this study, we present the Next Generation (NextGen) seasonal forecast system which was recently adopted by the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia. NextGen is based on a calibrated multi-model ensemble (CMME) approach that uses state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCM) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble project. A canonical correlation analysis-based regression is used to calibrate the predictions from the GCMs against observations. The calibrated GCMs are then combined with equal weight to make final CMME predictions. A hindcast skill assessment of the CMME predictions has been depicted in this study for three rainy seasons in Ethiopia, namely Belg: Feb to May, Kiremt: Jun to Sep, and Bega: Oct to Jan. Over the region, the resulting forecasts are characterized by moderate skill at lead-1 for all three seasons. NextGen forecasting system shows that Bega rain-benefiting areas demonstrate the highest deterministic and probabilistic skill when compared to Kiremt and Belg rainy areas. The real-time experimental forecast of Kiremt2020 was conducted using NextGen by NMA and proved quite successful in capturing precipitation anomalies comparable to observations.Nachiketa AcharyaMuhammad Azhar EhsanAdrajow AdmasuAsaminew TeshomeKyle Joseph Chen HallElsevierarticleEthiopian rainfall seasonNextGen Seasonal forecastCalibrated multi-model ensembleClimate servicesMeteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999Social sciences (General)H1-99ENClimate Services, Vol 24, Iss , Pp 100272- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Ethiopian rainfall season NextGen Seasonal forecast Calibrated multi-model ensemble Climate services Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99
spellingShingle	Ethiopian rainfall season NextGen Seasonal forecast Calibrated multi-model ensemble Climate services Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 Nachiketa Acharya Muhammad Azhar Ehsan Adrajow Admasu Asaminew Teshome Kyle Joseph Chen Hall On the next generation (NextGen) seasonal prediction system to enhance climate services over Ethiopia
description	In their recent seasonal forecast guidance, the World Meteorological Organization recommended using an objective seasonal forecast system that includes a traceable, reproducible, and well-documented set of steps. Such a forecast system is the backbone of any successful climate service, which should provide advanced warning to government, industry, and communities, and thereby help reduce the impacts of adverse climatic conditions. In this study, we present the Next Generation (NextGen) seasonal forecast system which was recently adopted by the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia. NextGen is based on a calibrated multi-model ensemble (CMME) approach that uses state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCM) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble project. A canonical correlation analysis-based regression is used to calibrate the predictions from the GCMs against observations. The calibrated GCMs are then combined with equal weight to make final CMME predictions. A hindcast skill assessment of the CMME predictions has been depicted in this study for three rainy seasons in Ethiopia, namely Belg: Feb to May, Kiremt: Jun to Sep, and Bega: Oct to Jan. Over the region, the resulting forecasts are characterized by moderate skill at lead-1 for all three seasons. NextGen forecasting system shows that Bega rain-benefiting areas demonstrate the highest deterministic and probabilistic skill when compared to Kiremt and Belg rainy areas. The real-time experimental forecast of Kiremt2020 was conducted using NextGen by NMA and proved quite successful in capturing precipitation anomalies comparable to observations.
format	article
author	Nachiketa Acharya Muhammad Azhar Ehsan Adrajow Admasu Asaminew Teshome Kyle Joseph Chen Hall
author_facet	Nachiketa Acharya Muhammad Azhar Ehsan Adrajow Admasu Asaminew Teshome Kyle Joseph Chen Hall
author_sort	Nachiketa Acharya
title	On the next generation (NextGen) seasonal prediction system to enhance climate services over Ethiopia
title_short	On the next generation (NextGen) seasonal prediction system to enhance climate services over Ethiopia
title_full	On the next generation (NextGen) seasonal prediction system to enhance climate services over Ethiopia
title_fullStr	On the next generation (NextGen) seasonal prediction system to enhance climate services over Ethiopia
title_full_unstemmed	On the next generation (NextGen) seasonal prediction system to enhance climate services over Ethiopia
title_sort	on the next generation (nextgen) seasonal prediction system to enhance climate services over ethiopia
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/33b1d6b178b24e93ae4870a67a00d13f
work_keys_str_mv	AT nachiketaacharya onthenextgenerationnextgenseasonalpredictionsystemtoenhanceclimateservicesoverethiopia AT muhammadazharehsan onthenextgenerationnextgenseasonalpredictionsystemtoenhanceclimateservicesoverethiopia AT adrajowadmasu onthenextgenerationnextgenseasonalpredictionsystemtoenhanceclimateservicesoverethiopia AT asaminewteshome onthenextgenerationnextgenseasonalpredictionsystemtoenhanceclimateservicesoverethiopia AT kylejosephchenhall onthenextgenerationnextgenseasonalpredictionsystemtoenhanceclimateservicesoverethiopia
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On the next generation (NextGen) seasonal prediction system to enhance climate services over Ethiopia

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