Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST

Abstract Tropical and sub-tropical South America are highly susceptible to extreme droughts. Recent events include two droughts (2005 and 2010) exceeding the 100-year return value in the Amazon and recurrent extreme droughts in the Nordeste region, with profound eco-hydrological and socioeconomic im...

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Autores principales:	Amir Erfanian, Guiling Wang, Lori Fomenko
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/343bad82fb384ff29dc24d62fc9ea6a9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:343bad82fb384ff29dc24d62fc9ea6a92021-12-02T16:06:50ZUnprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST10.1038/s41598-017-05373-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/343bad82fb384ff29dc24d62fc9ea6a92017-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05373-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Tropical and sub-tropical South America are highly susceptible to extreme droughts. Recent events include two droughts (2005 and 2010) exceeding the 100-year return value in the Amazon and recurrent extreme droughts in the Nordeste region, with profound eco-hydrological and socioeconomic impacts. In 2015–2016, both regions were hit by another drought. Here, we show that the severity of the 2015–2016 drought ("2016 drought" hereafter) is unprecedented based on multiple precipitation products (since 1900), satellite-derived data on terrestrial water storage (since 2002) and two vegetation indices (since 2004). The ecohydrological consequences from the 2016 drought are more severe and extensive than the 2005 and 2010 droughts. Empirical relationships between rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic are used to assess the role of tropical oceanic variability in the observed precipitation anomalies. Our results indicate that warmer-than-usual SSTs in the Tropical Pacific (including El Niño events) and Atlantic were the main drivers of extreme droughts in South America, but are unable to explain the severity of the 2016 observed rainfall deficits for a substantial portion of the Amazonia and Nordeste regions. This strongly suggests potential contribution of non-oceanic factors (e.g., land cover change and CO2-induced warming) to the 2016 drought.Amir ErfanianGuiling WangLori FomenkoNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Amir Erfanian Guiling Wang Lori Fomenko Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST
description	Abstract Tropical and sub-tropical South America are highly susceptible to extreme droughts. Recent events include two droughts (2005 and 2010) exceeding the 100-year return value in the Amazon and recurrent extreme droughts in the Nordeste region, with profound eco-hydrological and socioeconomic impacts. In 2015–2016, both regions were hit by another drought. Here, we show that the severity of the 2015–2016 drought ("2016 drought" hereafter) is unprecedented based on multiple precipitation products (since 1900), satellite-derived data on terrestrial water storage (since 2002) and two vegetation indices (since 2004). The ecohydrological consequences from the 2016 drought are more severe and extensive than the 2005 and 2010 droughts. Empirical relationships between rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic are used to assess the role of tropical oceanic variability in the observed precipitation anomalies. Our results indicate that warmer-than-usual SSTs in the Tropical Pacific (including El Niño events) and Atlantic were the main drivers of extreme droughts in South America, but are unable to explain the severity of the 2016 observed rainfall deficits for a substantial portion of the Amazonia and Nordeste regions. This strongly suggests potential contribution of non-oceanic factors (e.g., land cover change and CO2-induced warming) to the 2016 drought.
format	article
author	Amir Erfanian Guiling Wang Lori Fomenko
author_facet	Amir Erfanian Guiling Wang Lori Fomenko
author_sort	Amir Erfanian
title	Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST
title_short	Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST
title_full	Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST
title_fullStr	Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST
title_full_unstemmed	Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST
title_sort	unprecedented drought over tropical south america in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical sst
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/343bad82fb384ff29dc24d62fc9ea6a9
work_keys_str_mv	AT amirerfanian unprecedenteddroughtovertropicalsouthamericain2016significantlyunderpredictedbytropicalsst AT guilingwang unprecedenteddroughtovertropicalsouthamericain2016significantlyunderpredictedbytropicalsst AT lorifomenko unprecedenteddroughtovertropicalsouthamericain2016significantlyunderpredictedbytropicalsst
_version_	1718384835116924928

Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST

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