Power law behaviour in the saturation regime of fatality curves of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract We apply a versatile growth model, whose growth rate is given by a generalised beta distribution, to describe the complex behaviour of the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease for several countries in Europe and North America. We show that the COVID-19 epidemic curves not only may presen...

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Autores principales:	Giovani L. Vasconcelos, Antônio M. S. Macêdo, Gerson C. Duarte-Filho, Arthur A. Brum, Raydonal Ospina, Francisco A. G. Almeida
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3487cb081c8b40758796c59ee7f6cde7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3487cb081c8b40758796c59ee7f6cde72021-12-02T13:34:47ZPower law behaviour in the saturation regime of fatality curves of the COVID-19 pandemic10.1038/s41598-021-84165-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/3487cb081c8b40758796c59ee7f6cde72021-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84165-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract We apply a versatile growth model, whose growth rate is given by a generalised beta distribution, to describe the complex behaviour of the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease for several countries in Europe and North America. We show that the COVID-19 epidemic curves not only may present a subexponential early growth but can also exhibit a similar subexponential (power-law) behaviour in the saturation regime. We argue that the power-law exponent of the latter regime, which measures how quickly the curve approaches the plateau, is directly related to control measures, in the sense that the less strict the control, the smaller the exponent and hence the slower the diseases progresses to its end. The power-law saturation uncovered here is an important result, because it signals to policymakers and health authorities that it is important to keep control measures for as long as possible, so as to avoid a slow, power-law ending of the disease. The slower the approach to the plateau, the longer the virus lingers on in the population, and the greater not only the final death toll but also the risk of a resurgence of infections.Giovani L. VasconcelosAntônio M. S. MacêdoGerson C. Duarte-FilhoArthur A. BrumRaydonal OspinaFrancisco A. G. AlmeidaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Giovani L. Vasconcelos Antônio M. S. Macêdo Gerson C. Duarte-Filho Arthur A. Brum Raydonal Ospina Francisco A. G. Almeida Power law behaviour in the saturation regime of fatality curves of the COVID-19 pandemic
description	Abstract We apply a versatile growth model, whose growth rate is given by a generalised beta distribution, to describe the complex behaviour of the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease for several countries in Europe and North America. We show that the COVID-19 epidemic curves not only may present a subexponential early growth but can also exhibit a similar subexponential (power-law) behaviour in the saturation regime. We argue that the power-law exponent of the latter regime, which measures how quickly the curve approaches the plateau, is directly related to control measures, in the sense that the less strict the control, the smaller the exponent and hence the slower the diseases progresses to its end. The power-law saturation uncovered here is an important result, because it signals to policymakers and health authorities that it is important to keep control measures for as long as possible, so as to avoid a slow, power-law ending of the disease. The slower the approach to the plateau, the longer the virus lingers on in the population, and the greater not only the final death toll but also the risk of a resurgence of infections.
format	article
author	Giovani L. Vasconcelos Antônio M. S. Macêdo Gerson C. Duarte-Filho Arthur A. Brum Raydonal Ospina Francisco A. G. Almeida
author_facet	Giovani L. Vasconcelos Antônio M. S. Macêdo Gerson C. Duarte-Filho Arthur A. Brum Raydonal Ospina Francisco A. G. Almeida
author_sort	Giovani L. Vasconcelos
title	Power law behaviour in the saturation regime of fatality curves of the COVID-19 pandemic
title_short	Power law behaviour in the saturation regime of fatality curves of the COVID-19 pandemic
title_full	Power law behaviour in the saturation regime of fatality curves of the COVID-19 pandemic
title_fullStr	Power law behaviour in the saturation regime of fatality curves of the COVID-19 pandemic
title_full_unstemmed	Power law behaviour in the saturation regime of fatality curves of the COVID-19 pandemic
title_sort	power law behaviour in the saturation regime of fatality curves of the covid-19 pandemic
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/3487cb081c8b40758796c59ee7f6cde7
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Power law behaviour in the saturation regime of fatality curves of the COVID-19 pandemic

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