Contact tracing evaluation for COVID-19 transmission in the different movement levels of a rural college town in the USA

Abstract Contact tracing can play a key role in controlling human-to-human transmission of a highly contagious disease such as COVID-19. We investigate the benefits and costs of contact tracing in the COVID-19 transmission. We estimate two unknown epidemic model parameters (basic reproductive number...

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Autores principales:	Sifat A. Moon, Caterina M. Scoglio
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3493f7acefa74f1b8d86a0d03979bdf2
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3493f7acefa74f1b8d86a0d03979bdf22021-12-02T13:19:21ZContact tracing evaluation for COVID-19 transmission in the different movement levels of a rural college town in the USA10.1038/s41598-021-83722-y2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/3493f7acefa74f1b8d86a0d03979bdf22021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-83722-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Contact tracing can play a key role in controlling human-to-human transmission of a highly contagious disease such as COVID-19. We investigate the benefits and costs of contact tracing in the COVID-19 transmission. We estimate two unknown epidemic model parameters (basic reproductive number $$R_0$$ R 0 and confirmed rate $$\delta _2$$ δ 2 ) by using confirmed case data. We model contact tracing in a two-layer network model. The two-layer network is composed by the contact network in the first layer and the tracing network in the second layer. In terms of benefits, simulation results show that increasing the fraction of traced contacts decreases the size of the epidemic. For example, tracing $$25\%$$ 25 % of the contacts is enough for any reopening scenario to reduce the number of confirmed cases by half. Considering the act of quarantining susceptible households as the contact tracing cost, we have observed an interesting phenomenon. The number of quarantined susceptible people increases with the increase of tracing because each individual confirmed case is mentioning more contacts. However, after reaching a maximum point, the number of quarantined susceptible people starts to decrease with the increase of tracing because the increment of the mentioned contacts is balanced by a reduced number of confirmed cases. The goal of this research is to assess the effectiveness of contact tracing for the containment of COVID-19 spreading in the different movement levels of a rural college town in the USA. Our research model is designed to be flexible and therefore, can be used to other geographic locations.Sifat A. MoonCaterina M. ScoglioNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Sifat A. Moon Caterina M. Scoglio Contact tracing evaluation for COVID-19 transmission in the different movement levels of a rural college town in the USA
description	Abstract Contact tracing can play a key role in controlling human-to-human transmission of a highly contagious disease such as COVID-19. We investigate the benefits and costs of contact tracing in the COVID-19 transmission. We estimate two unknown epidemic model parameters (basic reproductive number $$R_0$$ R 0 and confirmed rate $$\delta _2$$ δ 2 ) by using confirmed case data. We model contact tracing in a two-layer network model. The two-layer network is composed by the contact network in the first layer and the tracing network in the second layer. In terms of benefits, simulation results show that increasing the fraction of traced contacts decreases the size of the epidemic. For example, tracing $$25\%$$ 25 % of the contacts is enough for any reopening scenario to reduce the number of confirmed cases by half. Considering the act of quarantining susceptible households as the contact tracing cost, we have observed an interesting phenomenon. The number of quarantined susceptible people increases with the increase of tracing because each individual confirmed case is mentioning more contacts. However, after reaching a maximum point, the number of quarantined susceptible people starts to decrease with the increase of tracing because the increment of the mentioned contacts is balanced by a reduced number of confirmed cases. The goal of this research is to assess the effectiveness of contact tracing for the containment of COVID-19 spreading in the different movement levels of a rural college town in the USA. Our research model is designed to be flexible and therefore, can be used to other geographic locations.
format	article
author	Sifat A. Moon Caterina M. Scoglio
author_facet	Sifat A. Moon Caterina M. Scoglio
author_sort	Sifat A. Moon
title	Contact tracing evaluation for COVID-19 transmission in the different movement levels of a rural college town in the USA
title_short	Contact tracing evaluation for COVID-19 transmission in the different movement levels of a rural college town in the USA
title_full	Contact tracing evaluation for COVID-19 transmission in the different movement levels of a rural college town in the USA
title_fullStr	Contact tracing evaluation for COVID-19 transmission in the different movement levels of a rural college town in the USA
title_full_unstemmed	Contact tracing evaluation for COVID-19 transmission in the different movement levels of a rural college town in the USA
title_sort	contact tracing evaluation for covid-19 transmission in the different movement levels of a rural college town in the usa
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/3493f7acefa74f1b8d86a0d03979bdf2
work_keys_str_mv	AT sifatamoon contacttracingevaluationforcovid19transmissioninthedifferentmovementlevelsofaruralcollegetownintheusa AT caterinamscoglio contacttracingevaluationforcovid19transmissioninthedifferentmovementlevelsofaruralcollegetownintheusa
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Contact tracing evaluation for COVID-19 transmission in the different movement levels of a rural college town in the USA

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