Determinants of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in China using geographically weighted regression models.

<h4>Background</h4>Over the past two decades, major epidemics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred throughout most of the West-Pacific Region countries, causing thousands of deaths among children. However, few studies have examined potential determinants of the incidence...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Maogui Hu, Zhongjie Li, Jinfeng Wang, Lin Jia, Yilan Liao, Shengjie Lai, Yansha Guo, Dan Zhao, Weizhong Yang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/35184331a0a64358995589df172cefc9
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:35184331a0a64358995589df172cefc9
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:35184331a0a64358995589df172cefc92021-11-18T07:15:12ZDeterminants of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in China using geographically weighted regression models.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0038978https://doaj.org/article/35184331a0a64358995589df172cefc92012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/22723913/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>Over the past two decades, major epidemics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred throughout most of the West-Pacific Region countries, causing thousands of deaths among children. However, few studies have examined potential determinants of the incidence of HFMD.<h4>Methods</h4>Reported HFMD cases from 2912 counties in China were obtained for May 2008. The monthly HFMD cumulative incidence was calculated for children aged 9 years and younger. Child population density (CPD) and six climate factors (average-temperature [AT], average-minimum-temperature [AT(min)], average-maximum-temperature [AT(max)], average-temperature-difference [AT(diff)], average-relative-humidity [ARH], and monthly precipitation [MP]) were selected as potential explanatory variables for the study. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were used to explore the associations between the selected factors and HFMD incidence at county level.<h4>Results</h4>There were 176,111 HFMD cases reported in the studied counties. The adjusted monthly cumulative incidence by county ranged from 0.26 cases per 100,000 children to 2549.00 per 100,000 children. For local univariate GWR models, the percentage of counties with statistical significance (p<0.05) between HFMD incidence and each of the seven factors were: CPD 84.3%, AT(max) 54.9%, AT 57.8%, AT(min) 61.2%, ARH 54.4%, MP 50.3%, and AT(diff) 51.6%. The R(2) for the seven factors' univariate GWR models are CPD 0.56, AT(max) 0.53, AT 0.52, MP 0.51, AT(min) 0.52, ARH 0.51, and AT(diff) 0.51, respectively. CPD, MP, AT, ARH and AT(diff) were further included in the multivariate GWR model, with R(2) 0.62, and all counties show statistically significant relationship.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Child population density and climate factors are potential determinants of the HFMD incidence in most areas in China. The strength and direction of association between these factors and the incidence of HFDM is spatially heterogeneous at the local geographic level, and child population density has a greater influence on the incidence of HFMD than the climate factors.Maogui HuZhongjie LiJinfeng WangLin JiaYilan LiaoShengjie LaiYansha GuoDan ZhaoWeizhong YangPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 6, p e38978 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Maogui Hu Zhongjie Li Jinfeng Wang Lin Jia Yilan Liao Shengjie Lai Yansha Guo Dan Zhao Weizhong Yang Determinants of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in China using geographically weighted regression models.
description	<h4>Background</h4>Over the past two decades, major epidemics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred throughout most of the West-Pacific Region countries, causing thousands of deaths among children. However, few studies have examined potential determinants of the incidence of HFMD.<h4>Methods</h4>Reported HFMD cases from 2912 counties in China were obtained for May 2008. The monthly HFMD cumulative incidence was calculated for children aged 9 years and younger. Child population density (CPD) and six climate factors (average-temperature [AT], average-minimum-temperature [AT(min)], average-maximum-temperature [AT(max)], average-temperature-difference [AT(diff)], average-relative-humidity [ARH], and monthly precipitation [MP]) were selected as potential explanatory variables for the study. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were used to explore the associations between the selected factors and HFMD incidence at county level.<h4>Results</h4>There were 176,111 HFMD cases reported in the studied counties. The adjusted monthly cumulative incidence by county ranged from 0.26 cases per 100,000 children to 2549.00 per 100,000 children. For local univariate GWR models, the percentage of counties with statistical significance (p<0.05) between HFMD incidence and each of the seven factors were: CPD 84.3%, AT(max) 54.9%, AT 57.8%, AT(min) 61.2%, ARH 54.4%, MP 50.3%, and AT(diff) 51.6%. The R(2) for the seven factors' univariate GWR models are CPD 0.56, AT(max) 0.53, AT 0.52, MP 0.51, AT(min) 0.52, ARH 0.51, and AT(diff) 0.51, respectively. CPD, MP, AT, ARH and AT(diff) were further included in the multivariate GWR model, with R(2) 0.62, and all counties show statistically significant relationship.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Child population density and climate factors are potential determinants of the HFMD incidence in most areas in China. The strength and direction of association between these factors and the incidence of HFDM is spatially heterogeneous at the local geographic level, and child population density has a greater influence on the incidence of HFMD than the climate factors.
format	article
author	Maogui Hu Zhongjie Li Jinfeng Wang Lin Jia Yilan Liao Shengjie Lai Yansha Guo Dan Zhao Weizhong Yang
author_facet	Maogui Hu Zhongjie Li Jinfeng Wang Lin Jia Yilan Liao Shengjie Lai Yansha Guo Dan Zhao Weizhong Yang
author_sort	Maogui Hu
title	Determinants of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in China using geographically weighted regression models.
title_short	Determinants of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in China using geographically weighted regression models.
title_full	Determinants of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in China using geographically weighted regression models.
title_fullStr	Determinants of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in China using geographically weighted regression models.
title_full_unstemmed	Determinants of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in China using geographically weighted regression models.
title_sort	determinants of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in china using geographically weighted regression models.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/35184331a0a64358995589df172cefc9
work_keys_str_mv	AT maoguihu determinantsoftheincidenceofhandfootandmouthdiseaseinchinausinggeographicallyweightedregressionmodels AT zhongjieli determinantsoftheincidenceofhandfootandmouthdiseaseinchinausinggeographicallyweightedregressionmodels AT jinfengwang determinantsoftheincidenceofhandfootandmouthdiseaseinchinausinggeographicallyweightedregressionmodels AT linjia determinantsoftheincidenceofhandfootandmouthdiseaseinchinausinggeographicallyweightedregressionmodels AT yilanliao determinantsoftheincidenceofhandfootandmouthdiseaseinchinausinggeographicallyweightedregressionmodels AT shengjielai determinantsoftheincidenceofhandfootandmouthdiseaseinchinausinggeographicallyweightedregressionmodels AT yanshaguo determinantsoftheincidenceofhandfootandmouthdiseaseinchinausinggeographicallyweightedregressionmodels AT danzhao determinantsoftheincidenceofhandfootandmouthdiseaseinchinausinggeographicallyweightedregressionmodels AT weizhongyang determinantsoftheincidenceofhandfootandmouthdiseaseinchinausinggeographicallyweightedregressionmodels
_version_	1718423717838585856

Determinants of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in China using geographically weighted regression models.

Ejemplares similares