An OGI model for personalized estimation of glucose and insulin concentration in plasma

Plasma glucose concentration (PGC) and plasma insulin concentration (PIC) are two essential metrics for diabetic regulation, but difficult to be measured directly. Often, PGC and PIC are estimated from continuous glucose monitoring and insulin delivery data. Nevertheless, the inter-individual variab...

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Autores principales: Weijie Wang, Shaoping Wang, Yixuan Geng, Yajing Qiao, Teresa Wu
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Publicado: AIMS Press 2021
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:3544190b425a4dcd932a7e684f9474262021-11-24T01:35:05ZAn OGI model for personalized estimation of glucose and insulin concentration in plasma10.3934/mbe.20214201551-0018https://doaj.org/article/3544190b425a4dcd932a7e684f9474262021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2021420?viewType=HTMLhttps://doaj.org/toc/1551-0018Plasma glucose concentration (PGC) and plasma insulin concentration (PIC) are two essential metrics for diabetic regulation, but difficult to be measured directly. Often, PGC and PIC are estimated from continuous glucose monitoring and insulin delivery data. Nevertheless, the inter-individual variability and external disturbance (e.g. carbohydrate intake) bring challenges for accurate estimations. This study is to estimate PGC and PIC adaptively by identifying personalized parameters and external disturbances. An observable glucose-insulin (OGI) dynamic model is established to describe insulin absorption, glucose regulation, and glucose transport. The model parameters and disturbances can be extended to observable state variables and be identified dynamically by Bayesian filtering estimators. Two basic Gaussian noise based Bayesian filtering estimators, extended Kalman filtering (EKF) and unscented Kalman filtering (UKF), are implemented. Recognizing the prevalence of non-Gaussian noise, in this study, two new filtering estimators: particle filtering with Gaussian noise (PFG), and particle filtering with mixed non-Gaussian noise (PFM) are designed and implemented. The proposed OGI model in conjunction with the estimators is evaluated using the data from 30 in-silico subjects and 10 human participants. For in-silico subjects, the OGI with PFM estimator has the ability to estimate PIC and PGC adaptively, achieving RMSE of PIC 9.49±3.81 mU/L, and PGC 0.89±0.19 mmol/L. For human, the OGI with PFM has the promise to identify disturbances (95.46%±0.65% accurate rate of meal identification). OGI model provides a way to fully personalize the parameters and external disturbances in real time, and has potential clinical utility for artificial pancreas.Weijie Wang Shaoping WangYixuan GengYajing QiaoTeresa WuAIMS Pressarticleartificial pancreasmodel personalizationbayesian filterplasma glucose concentrationplasma insulin concentrationBiotechnologyTP248.13-248.65MathematicsQA1-939ENMathematical Biosciences and Engineering, Vol 18, Iss 6, Pp 8499-8523 (2021)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic artificial pancreas
model personalization
bayesian filter
plasma glucose concentration
plasma insulin concentration
Biotechnology
TP248.13-248.65
Mathematics
QA1-939
spellingShingle artificial pancreas
model personalization
bayesian filter
plasma glucose concentration
plasma insulin concentration
Biotechnology
TP248.13-248.65
Mathematics
QA1-939
Weijie Wang
Shaoping Wang
Yixuan Geng
Yajing Qiao
Teresa Wu
An OGI model for personalized estimation of glucose and insulin concentration in plasma
description Plasma glucose concentration (PGC) and plasma insulin concentration (PIC) are two essential metrics for diabetic regulation, but difficult to be measured directly. Often, PGC and PIC are estimated from continuous glucose monitoring and insulin delivery data. Nevertheless, the inter-individual variability and external disturbance (e.g. carbohydrate intake) bring challenges for accurate estimations. This study is to estimate PGC and PIC adaptively by identifying personalized parameters and external disturbances. An observable glucose-insulin (OGI) dynamic model is established to describe insulin absorption, glucose regulation, and glucose transport. The model parameters and disturbances can be extended to observable state variables and be identified dynamically by Bayesian filtering estimators. Two basic Gaussian noise based Bayesian filtering estimators, extended Kalman filtering (EKF) and unscented Kalman filtering (UKF), are implemented. Recognizing the prevalence of non-Gaussian noise, in this study, two new filtering estimators: particle filtering with Gaussian noise (PFG), and particle filtering with mixed non-Gaussian noise (PFM) are designed and implemented. The proposed OGI model in conjunction with the estimators is evaluated using the data from 30 in-silico subjects and 10 human participants. For in-silico subjects, the OGI with PFM estimator has the ability to estimate PIC and PGC adaptively, achieving RMSE of PIC 9.49±3.81 mU/L, and PGC 0.89±0.19 mmol/L. For human, the OGI with PFM has the promise to identify disturbances (95.46%±0.65% accurate rate of meal identification). OGI model provides a way to fully personalize the parameters and external disturbances in real time, and has potential clinical utility for artificial pancreas.
format article
author Weijie Wang
Shaoping Wang
Yixuan Geng
Yajing Qiao
Teresa Wu
author_facet Weijie Wang
Shaoping Wang
Yixuan Geng
Yajing Qiao
Teresa Wu
author_sort Weijie Wang
title An OGI model for personalized estimation of glucose and insulin concentration in plasma
title_short An OGI model for personalized estimation of glucose and insulin concentration in plasma
title_full An OGI model for personalized estimation of glucose and insulin concentration in plasma
title_fullStr An OGI model for personalized estimation of glucose and insulin concentration in plasma
title_full_unstemmed An OGI model for personalized estimation of glucose and insulin concentration in plasma
title_sort ogi model for personalized estimation of glucose and insulin concentration in plasma
publisher AIMS Press
publishDate 2021
url https://doaj.org/article/3544190b425a4dcd932a7e684f947426
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