Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers

Abstract Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall response to climate warming. Precipitation extremes are historically associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Sixteen global climate...

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Autores principales:	Alexander Gershunov, Tamara Shulgina, Rachel E. S. Clemesha, Kristen Guirguis, David W. Pierce, Michael D. Dettinger, David A. Lavers, Daniel R. Cayan, Suraj D. Polade, Julie Kalansky, F. Martin Ralph
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2019
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3571e88f4ef54062915df33a5d8ca555
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3571e88f4ef54062915df33a5d8ca5552021-12-02T15:09:58ZPrecipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers10.1038/s41598-019-46169-w2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/3571e88f4ef54062915df33a5d8ca5552019-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46169-whttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall response to climate warming. Precipitation extremes are historically associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Sixteen global climate models are evaluated for realism in modeled historical AR behavior and contribution of the resulting daily precipitation to annual total precipitation over Western North America. The five most realistic models display consistent changes in future AR behavior, constraining the spread of the full ensemble. They, moreover, project increasing year-to-year variability of total annual precipitation, particularly over California, where change in total annual precipitation is not projected with confidence. Focusing on three representative river basins along the West Coast, we show that, while the decrease in precipitation frequency is mostly due to non-AR events, the increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is almost entirely due to ARs. This research demonstrates that examining meteorological causes of precipitation regime change can lead to better and more nuanced understanding of climate projections. It highlights the critical role of future changes in ARs to Western water resources, especially over California.Alexander GershunovTamara ShulginaRachel E. S. ClemeshaKristen GuirguisDavid W. PierceMichael D. DettingerDavid A. LaversDaniel R. CayanSuraj D. PoladeJulie KalanskyF. Martin RalphNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2019)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Alexander Gershunov Tamara Shulgina Rachel E. S. Clemesha Kristen Guirguis David W. Pierce Michael D. Dettinger David A. Lavers Daniel R. Cayan Suraj D. Polade Julie Kalansky F. Martin Ralph Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers
description	Abstract Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall response to climate warming. Precipitation extremes are historically associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Sixteen global climate models are evaluated for realism in modeled historical AR behavior and contribution of the resulting daily precipitation to annual total precipitation over Western North America. The five most realistic models display consistent changes in future AR behavior, constraining the spread of the full ensemble. They, moreover, project increasing year-to-year variability of total annual precipitation, particularly over California, where change in total annual precipitation is not projected with confidence. Focusing on three representative river basins along the West Coast, we show that, while the decrease in precipitation frequency is mostly due to non-AR events, the increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is almost entirely due to ARs. This research demonstrates that examining meteorological causes of precipitation regime change can lead to better and more nuanced understanding of climate projections. It highlights the critical role of future changes in ARs to Western water resources, especially over California.
format	article
author	Alexander Gershunov Tamara Shulgina Rachel E. S. Clemesha Kristen Guirguis David W. Pierce Michael D. Dettinger David A. Lavers Daniel R. Cayan Suraj D. Polade Julie Kalansky F. Martin Ralph
author_facet	Alexander Gershunov Tamara Shulgina Rachel E. S. Clemesha Kristen Guirguis David W. Pierce Michael D. Dettinger David A. Lavers Daniel R. Cayan Suraj D. Polade Julie Kalansky F. Martin Ralph
author_sort	Alexander Gershunov
title	Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers
title_short	Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers
title_full	Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers
title_fullStr	Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers
title_full_unstemmed	Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers
title_sort	precipitation regime change in western north america: the role of atmospheric rivers
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2019
url	https://doaj.org/article/3571e88f4ef54062915df33a5d8ca555
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Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers

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