Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.

<h4>Background</h4>Accurate predictions of species distributions are essential for climate change impact assessments. However the standard practice of using long-term climate averages to train species distribution models might mute important temporal patterns of species distribution. The...

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Autores principales:	April E Reside, Jeremy J Vanderwal, Alex S Kutt, Genevieve C Perkins
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2010
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/36e4100bb65140a994ac17790736a84d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:36e4100bb65140a994ac17790736a84d2021-11-18T07:02:59ZWeather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0013569https://doaj.org/article/36e4100bb65140a994ac17790736a84d2010-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/21042575/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>Accurate predictions of species distributions are essential for climate change impact assessments. However the standard practice of using long-term climate averages to train species distribution models might mute important temporal patterns of species distribution. The benefit of using temporally explicit weather and distribution data has not been assessed. We hypothesized that short-term weather associated with the time a species was recorded should be superior to long-term climate measures for predicting distributions of mobile species.<h4>Methodology</h4>We tested our hypothesis by generating distribution models for 157 bird species found in Australian tropical savannas (ATS) using modelling algorithm Maxent. The variable weather of the ATS supports a bird assemblage with variable movement patterns and a high incidence of nomadism. We developed "weather" models by relating climatic variables (mean temperature, rainfall, rainfall seasonality and temperature seasonality) from the three month, six month and one year period preceding each bird record over a 58 year period (1950-2008). These weather models were compared against models built using long-term (30 year) averages of the same climatic variables.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Weather models consistently achieved higher model scores than climate models, particularly for wide-ranging, nomadic and desert species. Climate models predicted larger range areas for species, whereas weather models quantified fluctuations in habitat suitability across months, seasons and years. Models based on long-term climate averages over-estimate availability of suitable habitat and species' climatic tolerances, masking species potential vulnerability to climate change. Our results demonstrate that dynamic approaches to distribution modelling, such as incorporating organism-appropriate temporal scales, improves understanding of species distributions.April E ResideJeremy J VanderwalAlex S KuttGenevieve C PerkinsPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 5, Iss 10, p e13569 (2010)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q April E Reside Jeremy J Vanderwal Alex S Kutt Genevieve C Perkins Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.
description	<h4>Background</h4>Accurate predictions of species distributions are essential for climate change impact assessments. However the standard practice of using long-term climate averages to train species distribution models might mute important temporal patterns of species distribution. The benefit of using temporally explicit weather and distribution data has not been assessed. We hypothesized that short-term weather associated with the time a species was recorded should be superior to long-term climate measures for predicting distributions of mobile species.<h4>Methodology</h4>We tested our hypothesis by generating distribution models for 157 bird species found in Australian tropical savannas (ATS) using modelling algorithm Maxent. The variable weather of the ATS supports a bird assemblage with variable movement patterns and a high incidence of nomadism. We developed "weather" models by relating climatic variables (mean temperature, rainfall, rainfall seasonality and temperature seasonality) from the three month, six month and one year period preceding each bird record over a 58 year period (1950-2008). These weather models were compared against models built using long-term (30 year) averages of the same climatic variables.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Weather models consistently achieved higher model scores than climate models, particularly for wide-ranging, nomadic and desert species. Climate models predicted larger range areas for species, whereas weather models quantified fluctuations in habitat suitability across months, seasons and years. Models based on long-term climate averages over-estimate availability of suitable habitat and species' climatic tolerances, masking species potential vulnerability to climate change. Our results demonstrate that dynamic approaches to distribution modelling, such as incorporating organism-appropriate temporal scales, improves understanding of species distributions.
format	article
author	April E Reside Jeremy J Vanderwal Alex S Kutt Genevieve C Perkins
author_facet	April E Reside Jeremy J Vanderwal Alex S Kutt Genevieve C Perkins
author_sort	April E Reside
title	Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.
title_short	Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.
title_full	Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.
title_fullStr	Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.
title_full_unstemmed	Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.
title_sort	weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2010
url	https://doaj.org/article/36e4100bb65140a994ac17790736a84d
work_keys_str_mv	AT aprilereside weathernotclimatedefinesdistributionsofvagilebirdspecies AT jeremyjvanderwal weathernotclimatedefinesdistributionsofvagilebirdspecies AT alexskutt weathernotclimatedefinesdistributionsofvagilebirdspecies AT genevievecperkins weathernotclimatedefinesdistributionsofvagilebirdspecies
_version_	1718423970916597760

Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.

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