Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review

Abstract Background How best to prioritise COVID-19 vaccination within and between countries has been a public health and an ethical challenge for decision-makers globally. We reviewed epidemiological and economic modelling evidence on population priority groups to minimise COVID-19 mortality, trans...

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Autores principales:	Nuru Saadi, Y-Ling Chi, Srobana Ghosh, Rosalind M. Eggo, Ciara V. McCarthy, Matthew Quaife, Jeanette Dawa, Mark Jit, Anna Vassall
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	BMC 2021
Materias:	COVID-19, Vaccination, Mathematical modelling Medicine R
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/37345c643f8b4c038ab387eb799316e3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:37345c643f8b4c038ab387eb799316e32021-12-05T12:11:17ZModels of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review10.1186/s12916-021-02190-31741-7015https://doaj.org/article/37345c643f8b4c038ab387eb799316e32021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-02190-3https://doaj.org/toc/1741-7015Abstract Background How best to prioritise COVID-19 vaccination within and between countries has been a public health and an ethical challenge for decision-makers globally. We reviewed epidemiological and economic modelling evidence on population priority groups to minimise COVID-19 mortality, transmission, and morbidity outcomes. Methods We searched the National Institute of Health iSearch COVID-19 Portfolio (a database of peer-reviewed and pre-print articles), Econlit, the Centre for Economic Policy Research, and the National Bureau of Economic Research for mathematical modelling studies evaluating the impact of prioritising COVID-19 vaccination to population target groups. The first search was conducted on March 3, 2021, and an updated search on the LMIC literature was conducted from March 3, 2021, to September 24, 2021. We narratively synthesised the main study conclusions on prioritisation and the conditions under which the conclusions changed. Results The initial search identified 1820 studies and 36 studies met the inclusion criteria. The updated search on LMIC literature identified 7 more studies. 43 studies in total were narratively synthesised. 74% of studies described outcomes in high-income countries (single and multi-country). We found that for countries seeking to minimise deaths, prioritising vaccination of senior adults was the optimal strategy and for countries seeking to minimise cases the young were prioritised. There were several exceptions to the main conclusion, notably that reductions in deaths could be increased if groups at high risk of both transmission and death could be further identified. Findings were also sensitive to the level of vaccine coverage. Conclusion The evidence supports WHO SAGE recommendations on COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation. There is, however, an evidence gap on optimal prioritisation for low- and middle-income countries, studies that included an economic evaluation, and studies that explore prioritisation strategies if the aim is to reduce overall health burden including morbidity.Nuru SaadiY-Ling ChiSrobana GhoshRosalind M. EggoCiara V. McCarthyMatthew QuaifeJeanette DawaMark JitAnna VassallBMCarticleCOVID-19, Vaccination, Mathematical modellingMedicineRENBMC Medicine, Vol 19, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	COVID-19, Vaccination, Mathematical modelling Medicine R
spellingShingle	COVID-19, Vaccination, Mathematical modelling Medicine R Nuru Saadi Y-Ling Chi Srobana Ghosh Rosalind M. Eggo Ciara V. McCarthy Matthew Quaife Jeanette Dawa Mark Jit Anna Vassall Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review
description	Abstract Background How best to prioritise COVID-19 vaccination within and between countries has been a public health and an ethical challenge for decision-makers globally. We reviewed epidemiological and economic modelling evidence on population priority groups to minimise COVID-19 mortality, transmission, and morbidity outcomes. Methods We searched the National Institute of Health iSearch COVID-19 Portfolio (a database of peer-reviewed and pre-print articles), Econlit, the Centre for Economic Policy Research, and the National Bureau of Economic Research for mathematical modelling studies evaluating the impact of prioritising COVID-19 vaccination to population target groups. The first search was conducted on March 3, 2021, and an updated search on the LMIC literature was conducted from March 3, 2021, to September 24, 2021. We narratively synthesised the main study conclusions on prioritisation and the conditions under which the conclusions changed. Results The initial search identified 1820 studies and 36 studies met the inclusion criteria. The updated search on LMIC literature identified 7 more studies. 43 studies in total were narratively synthesised. 74% of studies described outcomes in high-income countries (single and multi-country). We found that for countries seeking to minimise deaths, prioritising vaccination of senior adults was the optimal strategy and for countries seeking to minimise cases the young were prioritised. There were several exceptions to the main conclusion, notably that reductions in deaths could be increased if groups at high risk of both transmission and death could be further identified. Findings were also sensitive to the level of vaccine coverage. Conclusion The evidence supports WHO SAGE recommendations on COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation. There is, however, an evidence gap on optimal prioritisation for low- and middle-income countries, studies that included an economic evaluation, and studies that explore prioritisation strategies if the aim is to reduce overall health burden including morbidity.
format	article
author	Nuru Saadi Y-Ling Chi Srobana Ghosh Rosalind M. Eggo Ciara V. McCarthy Matthew Quaife Jeanette Dawa Mark Jit Anna Vassall
author_facet	Nuru Saadi Y-Ling Chi Srobana Ghosh Rosalind M. Eggo Ciara V. McCarthy Matthew Quaife Jeanette Dawa Mark Jit Anna Vassall
author_sort	Nuru Saadi
title	Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review
title_short	Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review
title_full	Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review
title_fullStr	Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review
title_full_unstemmed	Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review
title_sort	models of covid-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review
publisher	BMC
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/37345c643f8b4c038ab387eb799316e3
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Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review

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