Using 3PG to assess climate change impacts on management plan optimization of Eucalyptus plantations. A case study in Southern Brazil

Abstract Eucalyptus plantations around the world have been largely used by the paper industry. Optimizing the management of resources is a common practice in this highly competitive industry and new forest growth models may help to understand the impact of climate change on the decisions of the opti...

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Autores principales:	João HN Palma, Rodrigo Hakamada, Gabriela Gonçalves Moreira, Silvana Nobre, Luiz Carlos Estraviz Rodriguez
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3790896ee3fb422cb05b137bf280ce44
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3790896ee3fb422cb05b137bf280ce442021-12-02T14:06:50ZUsing 3PG to assess climate change impacts on management plan optimization of Eucalyptus plantations. A case study in Southern Brazil10.1038/s41598-021-81907-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/3790896ee3fb422cb05b137bf280ce442021-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81907-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Eucalyptus plantations around the world have been largely used by the paper industry. Optimizing the management of resources is a common practice in this highly competitive industry and new forest growth models may help to understand the impact of climate change on the decisions of the optimization processes. Current optimized management plans use empirical equations to predict future forest stands growth, and it is currently impractical to replace these empirical equations with physiological models due to data input requirements. In this paper, we present a different approach, by first carrying out a preliminary assessment with the process-based physiological model 3PG to evaluate the growth of Eucalyptus stands under climate change predictions. The information supplied by 3PG was then injected as a modifier in the projected yield that feeds the management plan optimizer allowing the interpretation of climate change impacts on the management plan. Modelling results show that although a general increase of rain with climate change is predicted, the distribution throughout the year will not favor the tree growth. On the contrary, rain will increase when it is less needed (summer) and decrease when it is most needed (winter), decreasing forest stand productivity between 3 and 5%, depending on the region and soil. Evaluation of the current optimized plan that kept constant the relation between wood price/cellulose ton shows a variation in different strategic management options and an overall increase of costs in owned areas between 2 and 4%, and a decrease of cumulated net present value, initially at 15% with later stabilization at 6–8%. This is a basic comparison to observe climate change effects; nevertheless, it provides insights into how the entire decision-making process may change due to a reduction in biomass production under future climate scenarios. This work demonstrates the use of physiological models to extract information that could be merged with existing and already implemented empirical models. The methodology may also be considered a preliminary alternative to the complete replacement of empirical models by physiological models. Our approach allows some insight into forest responses to different future climate conditions, something which empirical models are not designed for.João HN PalmaRodrigo HakamadaGabriela Gonçalves MoreiraSilvana NobreLuiz Carlos Estraviz RodriguezNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q João HN Palma Rodrigo Hakamada Gabriela Gonçalves Moreira Silvana Nobre Luiz Carlos Estraviz Rodriguez Using 3PG to assess climate change impacts on management plan optimization of Eucalyptus plantations. A case study in Southern Brazil
description	Abstract Eucalyptus plantations around the world have been largely used by the paper industry. Optimizing the management of resources is a common practice in this highly competitive industry and new forest growth models may help to understand the impact of climate change on the decisions of the optimization processes. Current optimized management plans use empirical equations to predict future forest stands growth, and it is currently impractical to replace these empirical equations with physiological models due to data input requirements. In this paper, we present a different approach, by first carrying out a preliminary assessment with the process-based physiological model 3PG to evaluate the growth of Eucalyptus stands under climate change predictions. The information supplied by 3PG was then injected as a modifier in the projected yield that feeds the management plan optimizer allowing the interpretation of climate change impacts on the management plan. Modelling results show that although a general increase of rain with climate change is predicted, the distribution throughout the year will not favor the tree growth. On the contrary, rain will increase when it is less needed (summer) and decrease when it is most needed (winter), decreasing forest stand productivity between 3 and 5%, depending on the region and soil. Evaluation of the current optimized plan that kept constant the relation between wood price/cellulose ton shows a variation in different strategic management options and an overall increase of costs in owned areas between 2 and 4%, and a decrease of cumulated net present value, initially at 15% with later stabilization at 6–8%. This is a basic comparison to observe climate change effects; nevertheless, it provides insights into how the entire decision-making process may change due to a reduction in biomass production under future climate scenarios. This work demonstrates the use of physiological models to extract information that could be merged with existing and already implemented empirical models. The methodology may also be considered a preliminary alternative to the complete replacement of empirical models by physiological models. Our approach allows some insight into forest responses to different future climate conditions, something which empirical models are not designed for.
format	article
author	João HN Palma Rodrigo Hakamada Gabriela Gonçalves Moreira Silvana Nobre Luiz Carlos Estraviz Rodriguez
author_facet	João HN Palma Rodrigo Hakamada Gabriela Gonçalves Moreira Silvana Nobre Luiz Carlos Estraviz Rodriguez
author_sort	João HN Palma
title	Using 3PG to assess climate change impacts on management plan optimization of Eucalyptus plantations. A case study in Southern Brazil
title_short	Using 3PG to assess climate change impacts on management plan optimization of Eucalyptus plantations. A case study in Southern Brazil
title_full	Using 3PG to assess climate change impacts on management plan optimization of Eucalyptus plantations. A case study in Southern Brazil
title_fullStr	Using 3PG to assess climate change impacts on management plan optimization of Eucalyptus plantations. A case study in Southern Brazil
title_full_unstemmed	Using 3PG to assess climate change impacts on management plan optimization of Eucalyptus plantations. A case study in Southern Brazil
title_sort	using 3pg to assess climate change impacts on management plan optimization of eucalyptus plantations. a case study in southern brazil
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/3790896ee3fb422cb05b137bf280ce44
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Using 3PG to assess climate change impacts on management plan optimization of Eucalyptus plantations. A case study in Southern Brazil

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