Volcanic hazard assessment for tephra fallout in Martinique

Abstract Mount Pelée (Martinique) is one of the most active volcanoes in the Lesser Antilles arc with more than 34 magmatic events in the last 24,000 years, including the deadliest eruption of the 20th century. The current volcanic hazard map used in the civil security plan puts the emphasis on the...

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Autores principales:	Audrey Michaud-Dubuy, Guillaume Carazzo, Edouard Kaminski
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	BMC 2021
Materias:	Mount Pelée Tephra dispersal Tephrostratigraphy HAZMAP Wind variability Volcanic hazard assessment Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Disasters and engineering TA495
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/37a8f84210d14152b7bfa9993a159c73
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:37a8f84210d14152b7bfa9993a159c732021-11-14T12:15:45ZVolcanic hazard assessment for tephra fallout in Martinique10.1186/s13617-021-00106-72191-5040https://doaj.org/article/37a8f84210d14152b7bfa9993a159c732021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-021-00106-7https://doaj.org/toc/2191-5040Abstract Mount Pelée (Martinique) is one of the most active volcanoes in the Lesser Antilles arc with more than 34 magmatic events in the last 24,000 years, including the deadliest eruption of the 20th century. The current volcanic hazard map used in the civil security plan puts the emphasis on the volcanic hazard close to the volcano. This map is however based on an incomplete eruptive history and does not take into account the variability of the expected source conditions (mass eruption rate, total erupted mass, and grain-size distribution) or the wind effect on ash dispersal. We propose here to refine the volcanic hazard map for tephra fallout by using the 2-D model of ash dispersal HAZMAP. We first simulate the maximum expected eruptive scenario at Mount Pelée (i.e., the P3 eruption) using a seasonal wind profile. Building upon the good agreement with field data, we compute probability maps based on this maximum expected scenario, which show that tephra fallout hazard could threaten not only areas close to the volcano but also the southern part of Martinique. We then use a comprehensive approach based on 16 eruptive scenarios that include new field constraints obtained in the recent years on the past Plinian eruptions of Mount Pelée volcano. Each eruptive scenario considers different values of total erupted mass and mass eruption rate, and is characterized by a given probability of occurrence estimated from the refined eruptive history of the volcano. The 1979-2019 meteorological ERA-5 database is used to further take into account the daily variability of winds. These new probability maps show that the area of probable total destruction is wider when considering the 16 scenarios compared to the maximum expected scenario. The southern part of Martinique, although less threatened than when considering the maximum expected scenario, would still be impacted both by tephra fallout and by its high dependence on the water and electrical network carried from the northern part of the island. Finally, we show that key infrastructures in Martinique (such as the international airport) have a non-negligible probability of being impacted by a future Plinian eruption of the Mount Pelée. These results provide strong arguments for and will support significant and timely reconceiving of the emergency procedures as the local authorities have now placed Mount Pelée volcano on alert level yellow (vigilance) based on increased seismicity and tremor-type signals.Audrey Michaud-DubuyGuillaume CarazzoEdouard KaminskiBMCarticleMount PeléeTephra dispersalTephrostratigraphyHAZMAPWind variabilityVolcanic hazard assessmentEnvironmental protectionTD169-171.8Disasters and engineeringTA495ENJournal of Applied Volcanology, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-20 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Mount Pelée Tephra dispersal Tephrostratigraphy HAZMAP Wind variability Volcanic hazard assessment Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Disasters and engineering TA495
spellingShingle	Mount Pelée Tephra dispersal Tephrostratigraphy HAZMAP Wind variability Volcanic hazard assessment Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Disasters and engineering TA495 Audrey Michaud-Dubuy Guillaume Carazzo Edouard Kaminski Volcanic hazard assessment for tephra fallout in Martinique
description	Abstract Mount Pelée (Martinique) is one of the most active volcanoes in the Lesser Antilles arc with more than 34 magmatic events in the last 24,000 years, including the deadliest eruption of the 20th century. The current volcanic hazard map used in the civil security plan puts the emphasis on the volcanic hazard close to the volcano. This map is however based on an incomplete eruptive history and does not take into account the variability of the expected source conditions (mass eruption rate, total erupted mass, and grain-size distribution) or the wind effect on ash dispersal. We propose here to refine the volcanic hazard map for tephra fallout by using the 2-D model of ash dispersal HAZMAP. We first simulate the maximum expected eruptive scenario at Mount Pelée (i.e., the P3 eruption) using a seasonal wind profile. Building upon the good agreement with field data, we compute probability maps based on this maximum expected scenario, which show that tephra fallout hazard could threaten not only areas close to the volcano but also the southern part of Martinique. We then use a comprehensive approach based on 16 eruptive scenarios that include new field constraints obtained in the recent years on the past Plinian eruptions of Mount Pelée volcano. Each eruptive scenario considers different values of total erupted mass and mass eruption rate, and is characterized by a given probability of occurrence estimated from the refined eruptive history of the volcano. The 1979-2019 meteorological ERA-5 database is used to further take into account the daily variability of winds. These new probability maps show that the area of probable total destruction is wider when considering the 16 scenarios compared to the maximum expected scenario. The southern part of Martinique, although less threatened than when considering the maximum expected scenario, would still be impacted both by tephra fallout and by its high dependence on the water and electrical network carried from the northern part of the island. Finally, we show that key infrastructures in Martinique (such as the international airport) have a non-negligible probability of being impacted by a future Plinian eruption of the Mount Pelée. These results provide strong arguments for and will support significant and timely reconceiving of the emergency procedures as the local authorities have now placed Mount Pelée volcano on alert level yellow (vigilance) based on increased seismicity and tremor-type signals.
format	article
author	Audrey Michaud-Dubuy Guillaume Carazzo Edouard Kaminski
author_facet	Audrey Michaud-Dubuy Guillaume Carazzo Edouard Kaminski
author_sort	Audrey Michaud-Dubuy
title	Volcanic hazard assessment for tephra fallout in Martinique
title_short	Volcanic hazard assessment for tephra fallout in Martinique
title_full	Volcanic hazard assessment for tephra fallout in Martinique
title_fullStr	Volcanic hazard assessment for tephra fallout in Martinique
title_full_unstemmed	Volcanic hazard assessment for tephra fallout in Martinique
title_sort	volcanic hazard assessment for tephra fallout in martinique
publisher	BMC
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/37a8f84210d14152b7bfa9993a159c73
work_keys_str_mv	AT audreymichauddubuy volcanichazardassessmentfortephrafalloutinmartinique AT guillaumecarazzo volcanichazardassessmentfortephrafalloutinmartinique AT edouardkaminski volcanichazardassessmentfortephrafalloutinmartinique
_version_	1718429339865841664

Volcanic hazard assessment for tephra fallout in Martinique

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