Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis

Deserts have been predicted to be one of the most responsive ecosystems to global climate change. In this study, we examine the spatial and demographic response of a keystone endemic plant of the Namib Desert (Welwitschia mirabilis), for which displacement and reduction of suitable climate has been...

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Autores principales:	Pierluigi Bombi, Daniele Salvi, Titus Shuuya, Leonardo Vignoli, Theo Wassenaar
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/37cb499152144212a226bf403addb1d9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:37cb499152144212a226bf403addb1d92021-11-18T06:34:27ZClimate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis1932-6203https://doaj.org/article/37cb499152144212a226bf403addb1d92021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8575257/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Deserts have been predicted to be one of the most responsive ecosystems to global climate change. In this study, we examine the spatial and demographic response of a keystone endemic plant of the Namib Desert (Welwitschia mirabilis), for which displacement and reduction of suitable climate has been foreseen under future conditions. The main aim is to assess the association between ongoing climate change and geographical patterns of welwitschia health, reproductive status, and size. We collected data on welwitschia distribution, health condition, reproductive status, and plant size in northern Namibia. We used ecological niche models to predict the expected geographic shift of suitability under climate change scenarios. For each variable, we compared our field measurements with the expected ongoing change in climate suitability. Finally, we tested the presence of simple geographical gradients in the observed patterns. The historically realized thermal niche of welwitschia will be almost completely unavailable in the next 30 years in northern Namibia. Expected reductions of climatic suitability in our study sites were strongly associated with indicators of negative population conditions, namely lower plant health, reduced recruitment and increased adult mortality. Population condition does not follow simple latitudinal or altitudinal gradients. The observed pattern of population traits is consistent with climate change trends and projections. This makes welwitschia a suitable bioindicator (i.e. a ‘sentinel’) for climate change effect in the Namib Desert ecosystems. Our spatially explicit approach, combining suitability modeling with geographic combinations of population conditions measured in the field, could be extensively adopted to identify sentinel species, and detect population responses to climate change in other regions and ecosystems.Pierluigi BombiDaniele SalviTitus ShuuyaLeonardo VignoliTheo WassenaarPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Pierluigi Bombi Daniele Salvi Titus Shuuya Leonardo Vignoli Theo Wassenaar Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis
description	Deserts have been predicted to be one of the most responsive ecosystems to global climate change. In this study, we examine the spatial and demographic response of a keystone endemic plant of the Namib Desert (Welwitschia mirabilis), for which displacement and reduction of suitable climate has been foreseen under future conditions. The main aim is to assess the association between ongoing climate change and geographical patterns of welwitschia health, reproductive status, and size. We collected data on welwitschia distribution, health condition, reproductive status, and plant size in northern Namibia. We used ecological niche models to predict the expected geographic shift of suitability under climate change scenarios. For each variable, we compared our field measurements with the expected ongoing change in climate suitability. Finally, we tested the presence of simple geographical gradients in the observed patterns. The historically realized thermal niche of welwitschia will be almost completely unavailable in the next 30 years in northern Namibia. Expected reductions of climatic suitability in our study sites were strongly associated with indicators of negative population conditions, namely lower plant health, reduced recruitment and increased adult mortality. Population condition does not follow simple latitudinal or altitudinal gradients. The observed pattern of population traits is consistent with climate change trends and projections. This makes welwitschia a suitable bioindicator (i.e. a ‘sentinel’) for climate change effect in the Namib Desert ecosystems. Our spatially explicit approach, combining suitability modeling with geographic combinations of population conditions measured in the field, could be extensively adopted to identify sentinel species, and detect population responses to climate change in other regions and ecosystems.
format	article
author	Pierluigi Bombi Daniele Salvi Titus Shuuya Leonardo Vignoli Theo Wassenaar
author_facet	Pierluigi Bombi Daniele Salvi Titus Shuuya Leonardo Vignoli Theo Wassenaar
author_sort	Pierluigi Bombi
title	Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis
title_short	Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis
title_full	Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis
title_fullStr	Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis
title_full_unstemmed	Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis
title_sort	climate change effects on desert ecosystems: a case study on the keystone species of the namib desert welwitschia mirabilis
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/37cb499152144212a226bf403addb1d9
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Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis

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