Some coral diseases track climate oscillations in the Caribbean

Abstract Disease outbreaks continue to reduce coral populations worldwide. Understanding coral diseases and their relationships with environmental drivers is necessary to forecast disease outbreaks, and to predict future changes in coral populations. Yet, the temporal dynamics of coral diseases are...

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Autores principales:	C. J. Randall, R. van Woesik
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3805d2c4c2864ac3af447c6e78c7a733
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:3805d2c4c2864ac3af447c6e78c7a733
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3805d2c4c2864ac3af447c6e78c7a7332021-12-02T16:06:25ZSome coral diseases track climate oscillations in the Caribbean10.1038/s41598-017-05763-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/3805d2c4c2864ac3af447c6e78c7a7332017-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05763-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Disease outbreaks continue to reduce coral populations worldwide. Understanding coral diseases and their relationships with environmental drivers is necessary to forecast disease outbreaks, and to predict future changes in coral populations. Yet, the temporal dynamics of coral diseases are rarely reported. Here we evaluate trends and periodicities in the records of three common coral diseases (white-band disease, yellow-band disease, and dark-spot syndrome) that were surveyed between 1997 and 2014 at 2082 sites throughout the Caribbean. The relationship between the periodicities of disease prevalence and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles was examined using cross-wavelet analyses and convergent cross mapping (CCM). The prevalence of the diseases peaked every two to four years, and matched periodicities in ENSO conditions. CCM models suggested that environmental conditions associated with recent ENSO cycles may have influenced the patterns in disease prevalence. We also found no increasing trends in disease prevalence through time. Instead, our work suggests that the prevalence of coral diseases is dynamic and complex. The gradual increase in sea-surface temperature, a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions, progressively raises the modal temperature threshold of each ENSO cycle. These dynamic cycles and the increasing modal temperatures appear to influence the dynamics of coral diseases.C. J. RandallR. van WoesikNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q C. J. Randall R. van Woesik Some coral diseases track climate oscillations in the Caribbean
description	Abstract Disease outbreaks continue to reduce coral populations worldwide. Understanding coral diseases and their relationships with environmental drivers is necessary to forecast disease outbreaks, and to predict future changes in coral populations. Yet, the temporal dynamics of coral diseases are rarely reported. Here we evaluate trends and periodicities in the records of three common coral diseases (white-band disease, yellow-band disease, and dark-spot syndrome) that were surveyed between 1997 and 2014 at 2082 sites throughout the Caribbean. The relationship between the periodicities of disease prevalence and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles was examined using cross-wavelet analyses and convergent cross mapping (CCM). The prevalence of the diseases peaked every two to four years, and matched periodicities in ENSO conditions. CCM models suggested that environmental conditions associated with recent ENSO cycles may have influenced the patterns in disease prevalence. We also found no increasing trends in disease prevalence through time. Instead, our work suggests that the prevalence of coral diseases is dynamic and complex. The gradual increase in sea-surface temperature, a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions, progressively raises the modal temperature threshold of each ENSO cycle. These dynamic cycles and the increasing modal temperatures appear to influence the dynamics of coral diseases.
format	article
author	C. J. Randall R. van Woesik
author_facet	C. J. Randall R. van Woesik
author_sort	C. J. Randall
title	Some coral diseases track climate oscillations in the Caribbean
title_short	Some coral diseases track climate oscillations in the Caribbean
title_full	Some coral diseases track climate oscillations in the Caribbean
title_fullStr	Some coral diseases track climate oscillations in the Caribbean
title_full_unstemmed	Some coral diseases track climate oscillations in the Caribbean
title_sort	some coral diseases track climate oscillations in the caribbean
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/3805d2c4c2864ac3af447c6e78c7a733
work_keys_str_mv	AT cjrandall somecoraldiseasestrackclimateoscillationsinthecaribbean AT rvanwoesik somecoraldiseasestrackclimateoscillationsinthecaribbean
_version_	1718385016334974976

Some coral diseases track climate oscillations in the Caribbean

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