El Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time

Abstract The 2014–2015 “Monster”/“Super” El Niño failed to be predicted one year earlier due to the growing importance of a new type of El Niño, El Niño Modoki, which reportedly has much lower forecast skill with the classical models. In this study, we show that, so far as of today, this new El Niño...

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Autores principales:	X. San Liang, Fen Xu, Yineng Rong, Renhe Zhang, Xu Tang, Feng Zhang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/382a56d14b4c4b7c8a28b5c15e4757f1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:382a56d14b4c4b7c8a28b5c15e4757f12021-12-02T14:58:47ZEl Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time10.1038/s41598-021-97111-y2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/382a56d14b4c4b7c8a28b5c15e4757f12021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97111-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The 2014–2015 “Monster”/“Super” El Niño failed to be predicted one year earlier due to the growing importance of a new type of El Niño, El Niño Modoki, which reportedly has much lower forecast skill with the classical models. In this study, we show that, so far as of today, this new El Niño actually can be mostly predicted at a lead time of more than 10 years. This is achieved through tracing the predictability source with an information flow-based causality analysis, which has been rigorously established from first principles during the past 16 years (e.g., Liang in Phys Rev E 94:052201, 2016). We show that the information flowing from the solar activity 45 years ago to the sea surface temperature results in a causal structure resembling the El Niño Modoki mode. Based on this, a multidimensional system is constructed out of the sunspot number series with time delays of 22–50 years. The first 25 principal components are then taken as the predictors to fulfill the prediction, which through causal AI based on the Liang–Kleeman information flow reproduces rather accurately the events thus far 12 years in advance.X. San LiangFen XuYineng RongRenhe ZhangXu TangFeng ZhangNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q X. San Liang Fen Xu Yineng Rong Renhe Zhang Xu Tang Feng Zhang El Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time
description	Abstract The 2014–2015 “Monster”/“Super” El Niño failed to be predicted one year earlier due to the growing importance of a new type of El Niño, El Niño Modoki, which reportedly has much lower forecast skill with the classical models. In this study, we show that, so far as of today, this new El Niño actually can be mostly predicted at a lead time of more than 10 years. This is achieved through tracing the predictability source with an information flow-based causality analysis, which has been rigorously established from first principles during the past 16 years (e.g., Liang in Phys Rev E 94:052201, 2016). We show that the information flowing from the solar activity 45 years ago to the sea surface temperature results in a causal structure resembling the El Niño Modoki mode. Based on this, a multidimensional system is constructed out of the sunspot number series with time delays of 22–50 years. The first 25 principal components are then taken as the predictors to fulfill the prediction, which through causal AI based on the Liang–Kleeman information flow reproduces rather accurately the events thus far 12 years in advance.
format	article
author	X. San Liang Fen Xu Yineng Rong Renhe Zhang Xu Tang Feng Zhang
author_facet	X. San Liang Fen Xu Yineng Rong Renhe Zhang Xu Tang Feng Zhang
author_sort	X. San Liang
title	El Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time
title_short	El Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time
title_full	El Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time
title_fullStr	El Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time
title_full_unstemmed	El Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time
title_sort	el niño modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/382a56d14b4c4b7c8a28b5c15e4757f1
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_version_	1718389258509615104

El Niño Modoki can be mostly predicted more than 10 years ahead of time

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