Drought and child mortality: a meta-analysis of small-scale surveys from Ethiopia

Abstract Despite the intuitive connection between drought and mortality, we still lack a sound quantitative synthesis of evidence drawn from the available data. In this study, we estimate the pooled under-five death rates (U5DR) and assess the effect of drought on child death in Ethiopia. Small-scal...

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Autores principales:	Tefera Darge Delbiso, Chiara Altare, Jose Manuel Rodriguez-Llanes, Shannon Doocy, Debarati Guha-Sapir
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/384b1af9369849eaa72ae284633555b2
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:384b1af9369849eaa72ae284633555b22021-12-02T16:07:05ZDrought and child mortality: a meta-analysis of small-scale surveys from Ethiopia10.1038/s41598-017-02271-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/384b1af9369849eaa72ae284633555b22017-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-02271-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Despite the intuitive connection between drought and mortality, we still lack a sound quantitative synthesis of evidence drawn from the available data. In this study, we estimate the pooled under-five death rates (U5DR) and assess the effect of drought on child death in Ethiopia. Small-scale mortality surveys were searched from the Complex Emergency Database and then aggregated spatially and temporally with drought exposure data from the Global Drought Monitor and food insecurity data from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network. A Bayesian Poisson meta-analysis was performed on 88 surveys conducted in Ethiopia between 2009 and 2014, consisting of 55,219 under-five children. The pooled U5DR was estimated at 0.323/10,000/day (95% credible interval, CrI: 0.254–0.397), which is below both the emergency and the baseline death rate thresholds of sub-Saharan Africa. We failed to find a plausible association between drought and U5DR. However, minimal food insecure areas showed elevated U5DR compared to stressed food insecure areas. Furthermore, the U5DR increases as the prevalence of acute malnutrition increases. Targeted interventions to improve the underlying causes of child malnutrition are crucial. Further, revising and updating the existing mortality thresholds, both the baseline and the emergency, is recommended.Tefera Darge DelbisoChiara AltareJose Manuel Rodriguez-LlanesShannon DoocyDebarati Guha-SapirNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Tefera Darge Delbiso Chiara Altare Jose Manuel Rodriguez-Llanes Shannon Doocy Debarati Guha-Sapir Drought and child mortality: a meta-analysis of small-scale surveys from Ethiopia
description	Abstract Despite the intuitive connection between drought and mortality, we still lack a sound quantitative synthesis of evidence drawn from the available data. In this study, we estimate the pooled under-five death rates (U5DR) and assess the effect of drought on child death in Ethiopia. Small-scale mortality surveys were searched from the Complex Emergency Database and then aggregated spatially and temporally with drought exposure data from the Global Drought Monitor and food insecurity data from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network. A Bayesian Poisson meta-analysis was performed on 88 surveys conducted in Ethiopia between 2009 and 2014, consisting of 55,219 under-five children. The pooled U5DR was estimated at 0.323/10,000/day (95% credible interval, CrI: 0.254–0.397), which is below both the emergency and the baseline death rate thresholds of sub-Saharan Africa. We failed to find a plausible association between drought and U5DR. However, minimal food insecure areas showed elevated U5DR compared to stressed food insecure areas. Furthermore, the U5DR increases as the prevalence of acute malnutrition increases. Targeted interventions to improve the underlying causes of child malnutrition are crucial. Further, revising and updating the existing mortality thresholds, both the baseline and the emergency, is recommended.
format	article
author	Tefera Darge Delbiso Chiara Altare Jose Manuel Rodriguez-Llanes Shannon Doocy Debarati Guha-Sapir
author_facet	Tefera Darge Delbiso Chiara Altare Jose Manuel Rodriguez-Llanes Shannon Doocy Debarati Guha-Sapir
author_sort	Tefera Darge Delbiso
title	Drought and child mortality: a meta-analysis of small-scale surveys from Ethiopia
title_short	Drought and child mortality: a meta-analysis of small-scale surveys from Ethiopia
title_full	Drought and child mortality: a meta-analysis of small-scale surveys from Ethiopia
title_fullStr	Drought and child mortality: a meta-analysis of small-scale surveys from Ethiopia
title_full_unstemmed	Drought and child mortality: a meta-analysis of small-scale surveys from Ethiopia
title_sort	drought and child mortality: a meta-analysis of small-scale surveys from ethiopia
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/384b1af9369849eaa72ae284633555b2
work_keys_str_mv	AT teferadargedelbiso droughtandchildmortalityametaanalysisofsmallscalesurveysfromethiopia AT chiaraaltare droughtandchildmortalityametaanalysisofsmallscalesurveysfromethiopia AT josemanuelrodriguezllanes droughtandchildmortalityametaanalysisofsmallscalesurveysfromethiopia AT shannondoocy droughtandchildmortalityametaanalysisofsmallscalesurveysfromethiopia AT debaratiguhasapir droughtandchildmortalityametaanalysisofsmallscalesurveysfromethiopia
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Drought and child mortality: a meta-analysis of small-scale surveys from Ethiopia

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