Study of China's Optimal Concentrated Solar Power Development Path to 2050

As an important form of clean energy generation that provides continuous and stable power generation and is grid-friendly, concentrated solar power (CSP) has been developing rapidly in recent years. It is expected that CSP, together with wind and solar photovoltaic, will constitute a stable, high pe...

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Autores principales:	Xin Zhang, Xiaojia Dong, Xinyu Li
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	concentrated solar power development path learning curve innovation diffusion model genetic algorithm dynamic programming General Works A
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3980034efa294b658e23a515cc8e6123
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3980034efa294b658e23a515cc8e61232021-11-16T13:34:57ZStudy of China's Optimal Concentrated Solar Power Development Path to 20502296-598X10.3389/fenrg.2021.724021https://doaj.org/article/3980034efa294b658e23a515cc8e61232021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2021.724021/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-598XAs an important form of clean energy generation that provides continuous and stable power generation and is grid-friendly, concentrated solar power (CSP) has been developing rapidly in recent years. It is expected that CSP, together with wind and solar photovoltaic, will constitute a stable, high percentage of renewable energy generation system that will be price-competitive with conventional energy sources. In this study, a dynamic programming approach based on minimum cost was used to explore the optimal development path of CSP generation in China by 2050. A learning curve model and a technology diffusion model were used as constraints. The impact of factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, incentive policies, technological advances, grid absorptive capacity, and emission regulation schemes on the development of CSP generation was discussed in the context of sensitivity analysis and scenario comparison. This study has reached the following conclusions: 1) the government cannot achieve the target for cumulative installed capacity in 2050. Considering the interaction of relevant factors, the target would be hard to achieve even under favorable conditions; 2) as a key factor affecting the development of CSP, the incentive policy is closely related to construction cost. It is noteworthy that although the target can be achieved with a higher investment ratio, the CSP industry has failed to create a good ecological environment in the early stage of development; 3) GDP growth and learning rate are important factors influencing the development path in later stages; and 4) although they operate as potential factors affecting construction costs, grid absorptive capacity and carbon permit prices have limited impact on the development of CSP generation.Xin ZhangXiaojia DongXinyu LiFrontiers Media S.A.articleconcentrated solar powerdevelopment pathlearning curveinnovation diffusion modelgenetic algorithmdynamic programmingGeneral WorksAENFrontiers in Energy Research, Vol 9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	concentrated solar power development path learning curve innovation diffusion model genetic algorithm dynamic programming General Works A
spellingShingle	concentrated solar power development path learning curve innovation diffusion model genetic algorithm dynamic programming General Works A Xin Zhang Xiaojia Dong Xinyu Li Study of China's Optimal Concentrated Solar Power Development Path to 2050
description	As an important form of clean energy generation that provides continuous and stable power generation and is grid-friendly, concentrated solar power (CSP) has been developing rapidly in recent years. It is expected that CSP, together with wind and solar photovoltaic, will constitute a stable, high percentage of renewable energy generation system that will be price-competitive with conventional energy sources. In this study, a dynamic programming approach based on minimum cost was used to explore the optimal development path of CSP generation in China by 2050. A learning curve model and a technology diffusion model were used as constraints. The impact of factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, incentive policies, technological advances, grid absorptive capacity, and emission regulation schemes on the development of CSP generation was discussed in the context of sensitivity analysis and scenario comparison. This study has reached the following conclusions: 1) the government cannot achieve the target for cumulative installed capacity in 2050. Considering the interaction of relevant factors, the target would be hard to achieve even under favorable conditions; 2) as a key factor affecting the development of CSP, the incentive policy is closely related to construction cost. It is noteworthy that although the target can be achieved with a higher investment ratio, the CSP industry has failed to create a good ecological environment in the early stage of development; 3) GDP growth and learning rate are important factors influencing the development path in later stages; and 4) although they operate as potential factors affecting construction costs, grid absorptive capacity and carbon permit prices have limited impact on the development of CSP generation.
format	article
author	Xin Zhang Xiaojia Dong Xinyu Li
author_facet	Xin Zhang Xiaojia Dong Xinyu Li
author_sort	Xin Zhang
title	Study of China's Optimal Concentrated Solar Power Development Path to 2050
title_short	Study of China's Optimal Concentrated Solar Power Development Path to 2050
title_full	Study of China's Optimal Concentrated Solar Power Development Path to 2050
title_fullStr	Study of China's Optimal Concentrated Solar Power Development Path to 2050
title_full_unstemmed	Study of China's Optimal Concentrated Solar Power Development Path to 2050
title_sort	study of china's optimal concentrated solar power development path to 2050
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/3980034efa294b658e23a515cc8e6123
work_keys_str_mv	AT xinzhang studyofchinasoptimalconcentratedsolarpowerdevelopmentpathto2050 AT xiaojiadong studyofchinasoptimalconcentratedsolarpowerdevelopmentpathto2050 AT xinyuli studyofchinasoptimalconcentratedsolarpowerdevelopmentpathto2050
_version_	1718426475269455872

Study of China's Optimal Concentrated Solar Power Development Path to 2050

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