Impact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions

Abstract As we enter a chronic phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with uncontrolled infection rates in many places, relative regional susceptibilities are a critical unknown for policy planning. Tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection or antibodies are indicative but unreliable measures of exposure. Here inst...

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Autores principales:	Thomas J. Barrett, Karen C. Patterson, Timothy M. James, Peter Krüger
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/39946f8e7c634315b5e381bb76fa6f12
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:39946f8e7c634315b5e381bb76fa6f122021-12-02T17:48:00ZImpact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions10.1038/s41598-021-91247-72045-2322https://doaj.org/article/39946f8e7c634315b5e381bb76fa6f122021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91247-7https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract As we enter a chronic phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with uncontrolled infection rates in many places, relative regional susceptibilities are a critical unknown for policy planning. Tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection or antibodies are indicative but unreliable measures of exposure. Here instead, for four highly-affected countries, we determine population susceptibilities by directly comparing country-wide observed epidemic dynamics data with that of their main metropolitan regions. We find significant susceptibility reductions in the metropolitan regions as a result of earlier seeding, with a relatively longer phase of exponential growth before the introduction of public health interventions. During the post-growth phase, the lower susceptibility of these regions contributed to the decline in cases, independent of intervention effects. Forward projections indicate that non-metropolitan regions will be more affected during recurrent epidemic waves compared with the initially heavier-hit metropolitan regions. Our findings have consequences for disease forecasts and resource utilisation.Thomas J. BarrettKaren C. PattersonTimothy M. JamesPeter KrügerNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Thomas J. Barrett Karen C. Patterson Timothy M. James Peter Krüger Impact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions
description	Abstract As we enter a chronic phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with uncontrolled infection rates in many places, relative regional susceptibilities are a critical unknown for policy planning. Tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection or antibodies are indicative but unreliable measures of exposure. Here instead, for four highly-affected countries, we determine population susceptibilities by directly comparing country-wide observed epidemic dynamics data with that of their main metropolitan regions. We find significant susceptibility reductions in the metropolitan regions as a result of earlier seeding, with a relatively longer phase of exponential growth before the introduction of public health interventions. During the post-growth phase, the lower susceptibility of these regions contributed to the decline in cases, independent of intervention effects. Forward projections indicate that non-metropolitan regions will be more affected during recurrent epidemic waves compared with the initially heavier-hit metropolitan regions. Our findings have consequences for disease forecasts and resource utilisation.
format	article
author	Thomas J. Barrett Karen C. Patterson Timothy M. James Peter Krüger
author_facet	Thomas J. Barrett Karen C. Patterson Timothy M. James Peter Krüger
author_sort	Thomas J. Barrett
title	Impact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions
title_short	Impact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions
title_full	Impact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions
title_fullStr	Impact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions
title_full_unstemmed	Impact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions
title_sort	impact of reduction of susceptibility to sars-cov-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/39946f8e7c634315b5e381bb76fa6f12
work_keys_str_mv	AT thomasjbarrett impactofreductionofsusceptibilitytosarscov2onepidemicdynamicsinfourearlyseededmetropolitanregions AT karencpatterson impactofreductionofsusceptibilitytosarscov2onepidemicdynamicsinfourearlyseededmetropolitanregions AT timothymjames impactofreductionofsusceptibilitytosarscov2onepidemicdynamicsinfourearlyseededmetropolitanregions AT peterkruger impactofreductionofsusceptibilitytosarscov2onepidemicdynamicsinfourearlyseededmetropolitanregions
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Impact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions

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