Modelling of Vegetation Dynamics from Satellite Time Series to Determine Proglacial Primary Succession in the Course of Global Warming—A Case Study in the Upper Martell Valley (Eastern Italian Alps)

Satellite-based long-term observations of vegetation cover development in combination with recent in-situ observations provide a basis to better understand the spatio-temporal changes of vegetation patterns, their sensitivity to climate drivers and thus climatic impact on proglacial landscape develo...

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Autores principales:	Bettina Knoflach, Katharina Ramskogler, Matthew Talluto, Florentin Hofmeister, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Madlene Pfeiffer, Livia Piermattei, Camillo Ressl, Michael H. Wimmer, Clemens Geitner, Brigitta Erschbamer, Johann Stötter
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	vegetation cover 1 <i>NDVI</i> 2 glacier foreland 3 Bayesian beta regression model 4 European Alps 5 Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/39b84dae8fd54d3789b289fdf437d4fc
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:39b84dae8fd54d3789b289fdf437d4fc2021-11-11T18:57:18ZModelling of Vegetation Dynamics from Satellite Time Series to Determine Proglacial Primary Succession in the Course of Global Warming—A Case Study in the Upper Martell Valley (Eastern Italian Alps)10.3390/rs132144502072-4292https://doaj.org/article/39b84dae8fd54d3789b289fdf437d4fc2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/13/21/4450https://doaj.org/toc/2072-4292Satellite-based long-term observations of vegetation cover development in combination with recent in-situ observations provide a basis to better understand the spatio-temporal changes of vegetation patterns, their sensitivity to climate drivers and thus climatic impact on proglacial landscape development. In this study we combined field investigations in the glacier forelands of Fürkele-, Zufall- and Langenferner (Ortles-Cevedale group/Eastern Italian Alps) with four different Vegetation Indices (<i>VI</i>) from Landsat scenes in order to test the suitability for modelling an area-wide vegetation cover map by using a Bayesian beta regression model (RStan). Since the model with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (<i>NDVI</i>) as predictor showed the best results, it was used to calculate a vegetation cover time series (1986–2019). The alteration of the proglacial areas since the end of the Little Ice Age (<i>LIA</i>) was analyzed from digital elevation models based on Airborne Laser Scanning (<i>ALS</i>) data and areal images, orthophotos, historical maps and field mapping campaigns. Our results show that a massive glacier retreat with an area loss of 8.1 km<sup>2</sup> (56.9%; <i>LIA</i>–2019) resulted in a constant enlargement of the glacier forelands, which has a statistically significant impact on the degree of vegetation cover. The area covered by vegetation increased from 0.25 km<sup>2</sup> (5.6%) in 1986 to 0.90 km<sup>2</sup> (11.2%) in 2019 with a significant acceleration of the mean annual changing rate. As patterns of both densification processes and plant colonization at higher elevations can be reflected by the model results, we consider in-situ observations combined with <i>NDVI</i> time series to be powerful tools for monitoring vegetation cover changes in alpine proglacial areas.Bettina KnoflachKatharina RamskoglerMatthew TallutoFlorentin HofmeisterFlorian HaasTobias HeckmannMadlene PfeifferLivia PiermatteiCamillo ResslMichael H. WimmerClemens GeitnerBrigitta ErschbamerJohann StötterMDPI AGarticlevegetation cover 1<i>NDVI</i> 2glacier foreland 3Bayesian beta regression model 4European Alps 5ScienceQENRemote Sensing, Vol 13, Iss 4450, p 4450 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	vegetation cover 1 <i>NDVI</i> 2 glacier foreland 3 Bayesian beta regression model 4 European Alps 5 Science Q
spellingShingle	vegetation cover 1 <i>NDVI</i> 2 glacier foreland 3 Bayesian beta regression model 4 European Alps 5 Science Q Bettina Knoflach Katharina Ramskogler Matthew Talluto Florentin Hofmeister Florian Haas Tobias Heckmann Madlene Pfeiffer Livia Piermattei Camillo Ressl Michael H. Wimmer Clemens Geitner Brigitta Erschbamer Johann Stötter Modelling of Vegetation Dynamics from Satellite Time Series to Determine Proglacial Primary Succession in the Course of Global Warming—A Case Study in the Upper Martell Valley (Eastern Italian Alps)
description	Satellite-based long-term observations of vegetation cover development in combination with recent in-situ observations provide a basis to better understand the spatio-temporal changes of vegetation patterns, their sensitivity to climate drivers and thus climatic impact on proglacial landscape development. In this study we combined field investigations in the glacier forelands of Fürkele-, Zufall- and Langenferner (Ortles-Cevedale group/Eastern Italian Alps) with four different Vegetation Indices (<i>VI</i>) from Landsat scenes in order to test the suitability for modelling an area-wide vegetation cover map by using a Bayesian beta regression model (RStan). Since the model with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (<i>NDVI</i>) as predictor showed the best results, it was used to calculate a vegetation cover time series (1986–2019). The alteration of the proglacial areas since the end of the Little Ice Age (<i>LIA</i>) was analyzed from digital elevation models based on Airborne Laser Scanning (<i>ALS</i>) data and areal images, orthophotos, historical maps and field mapping campaigns. Our results show that a massive glacier retreat with an area loss of 8.1 km<sup>2</sup> (56.9%; <i>LIA</i>–2019) resulted in a constant enlargement of the glacier forelands, which has a statistically significant impact on the degree of vegetation cover. The area covered by vegetation increased from 0.25 km<sup>2</sup> (5.6%) in 1986 to 0.90 km<sup>2</sup> (11.2%) in 2019 with a significant acceleration of the mean annual changing rate. As patterns of both densification processes and plant colonization at higher elevations can be reflected by the model results, we consider in-situ observations combined with <i>NDVI</i> time series to be powerful tools for monitoring vegetation cover changes in alpine proglacial areas.
format	article
author	Bettina Knoflach Katharina Ramskogler Matthew Talluto Florentin Hofmeister Florian Haas Tobias Heckmann Madlene Pfeiffer Livia Piermattei Camillo Ressl Michael H. Wimmer Clemens Geitner Brigitta Erschbamer Johann Stötter
author_facet	Bettina Knoflach Katharina Ramskogler Matthew Talluto Florentin Hofmeister Florian Haas Tobias Heckmann Madlene Pfeiffer Livia Piermattei Camillo Ressl Michael H. Wimmer Clemens Geitner Brigitta Erschbamer Johann Stötter
author_sort	Bettina Knoflach
title	Modelling of Vegetation Dynamics from Satellite Time Series to Determine Proglacial Primary Succession in the Course of Global Warming—A Case Study in the Upper Martell Valley (Eastern Italian Alps)
title_short	Modelling of Vegetation Dynamics from Satellite Time Series to Determine Proglacial Primary Succession in the Course of Global Warming—A Case Study in the Upper Martell Valley (Eastern Italian Alps)
title_full	Modelling of Vegetation Dynamics from Satellite Time Series to Determine Proglacial Primary Succession in the Course of Global Warming—A Case Study in the Upper Martell Valley (Eastern Italian Alps)
title_fullStr	Modelling of Vegetation Dynamics from Satellite Time Series to Determine Proglacial Primary Succession in the Course of Global Warming—A Case Study in the Upper Martell Valley (Eastern Italian Alps)
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling of Vegetation Dynamics from Satellite Time Series to Determine Proglacial Primary Succession in the Course of Global Warming—A Case Study in the Upper Martell Valley (Eastern Italian Alps)
title_sort	modelling of vegetation dynamics from satellite time series to determine proglacial primary succession in the course of global warming—a case study in the upper martell valley (eastern italian alps)
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/39b84dae8fd54d3789b289fdf437d4fc
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Modelling of Vegetation Dynamics from Satellite Time Series to Determine Proglacial Primary Succession in the Course of Global Warming—A Case Study in the Upper Martell Valley (Eastern Italian Alps)

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