Prediction of 8-year risk of cardiovascular diseases in Korean adult population

Abstract Although many prediction models for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have been developed and validated for Western populations, the development of CVD prediction models for Asians has been slow. Our cohort study retrospectively analyzed the incidence of CVD that occurred between January 1, 20...

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Autores principales:	Sung Hyouk Choi, Seung Min Lee, Su Hwan Kim, Minseon Park, Hyung-Jin Yoon
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/39f7318ea8a44b7da954a5b61ef37438
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:39f7318ea8a44b7da954a5b61ef374382021-12-02T15:33:12ZPrediction of 8-year risk of cardiovascular diseases in Korean adult population10.1038/s41598-021-93840-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/39f7318ea8a44b7da954a5b61ef374382021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93840-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Although many prediction models for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have been developed and validated for Western populations, the development of CVD prediction models for Asians has been slow. Our cohort study retrospectively analyzed the incidence of CVD that occurred between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2016, in all Koreans who underwent national health screening. This dataset included 21,581,796 adults between the ages of 40 and 79 years (10,412,947 men, 11,168,849 women) without CVD at baseline. The primary outcome, CVD, was defined as the development of any of the following: acute coronary syndrome, cerebral infarction, and cerebral hemorrhage, as defined with health insurance claims data. The prediction model was constructed by Cox proportional hazard regression and validated with tenfold cross-validation. The performance of the models was evaluated through Harrell’s C-index and Brier score. The discrimination of the models was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Our model showed an AUROC of 0.762 in men and 0.811 in women. The Brier score of our model was 0.018 in men and 0.010 in women, which was better than the pooled cohort equation (PCE). Our novel model performed better than the FRS and PCE for Koreans.Sung Hyouk ChoiSeung Min LeeSu Hwan KimMinseon ParkHyung-Jin YoonNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Sung Hyouk Choi Seung Min Lee Su Hwan Kim Minseon Park Hyung-Jin Yoon Prediction of 8-year risk of cardiovascular diseases in Korean adult population
description	Abstract Although many prediction models for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have been developed and validated for Western populations, the development of CVD prediction models for Asians has been slow. Our cohort study retrospectively analyzed the incidence of CVD that occurred between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2016, in all Koreans who underwent national health screening. This dataset included 21,581,796 adults between the ages of 40 and 79 years (10,412,947 men, 11,168,849 women) without CVD at baseline. The primary outcome, CVD, was defined as the development of any of the following: acute coronary syndrome, cerebral infarction, and cerebral hemorrhage, as defined with health insurance claims data. The prediction model was constructed by Cox proportional hazard regression and validated with tenfold cross-validation. The performance of the models was evaluated through Harrell’s C-index and Brier score. The discrimination of the models was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Our model showed an AUROC of 0.762 in men and 0.811 in women. The Brier score of our model was 0.018 in men and 0.010 in women, which was better than the pooled cohort equation (PCE). Our novel model performed better than the FRS and PCE for Koreans.
format	article
author	Sung Hyouk Choi Seung Min Lee Su Hwan Kim Minseon Park Hyung-Jin Yoon
author_facet	Sung Hyouk Choi Seung Min Lee Su Hwan Kim Minseon Park Hyung-Jin Yoon
author_sort	Sung Hyouk Choi
title	Prediction of 8-year risk of cardiovascular diseases in Korean adult population
title_short	Prediction of 8-year risk of cardiovascular diseases in Korean adult population
title_full	Prediction of 8-year risk of cardiovascular diseases in Korean adult population
title_fullStr	Prediction of 8-year risk of cardiovascular diseases in Korean adult population
title_full_unstemmed	Prediction of 8-year risk of cardiovascular diseases in Korean adult population
title_sort	prediction of 8-year risk of cardiovascular diseases in korean adult population
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/39f7318ea8a44b7da954a5b61ef37438
work_keys_str_mv	AT sunghyoukchoi predictionof8yearriskofcardiovasculardiseasesinkoreanadultpopulation AT seungminlee predictionof8yearriskofcardiovasculardiseasesinkoreanadultpopulation AT suhwankim predictionof8yearriskofcardiovasculardiseasesinkoreanadultpopulation AT minseonpark predictionof8yearriskofcardiovasculardiseasesinkoreanadultpopulation AT hyungjinyoon predictionof8yearriskofcardiovasculardiseasesinkoreanadultpopulation
_version_	1718387075924885504

Prediction of 8-year risk of cardiovascular diseases in Korean adult population

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