Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method

Abstract Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of...

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Autores principales:	Xian-Zhong Mu, Guo-Hao Li, Guang-Wen Hu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2018
Materias:	Natural gas demand system System dynamics Scenario prediction Consumption structure Science Q Petrology QE420-499
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3a0af054a1424c4ca65cba11af25fa63
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3a0af054a1424c4ca65cba11af25fa632021-12-02T11:35:15ZModeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method10.1007/s12182-018-0269-31672-51071995-8226https://doaj.org/article/3a0af054a1424c4ca65cba11af25fa632018-10-01T00:00:00Zhttp://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12182-018-0269-3https://doaj.org/toc/1672-5107https://doaj.org/toc/1995-8226Abstract Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of the parameters of the model. The results showed that the total demand of natural gas would increase steadily year by year and reach in the range from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. Furthermore, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas consumption would still be the largest term, followed by the gas consumption as industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the natural gas demand growth, the impact of urbanization on urban gas consumption is significant, and the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.Xian-Zhong MuGuo-Hao LiGuang-Wen HuKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.articleNatural gas demand systemSystem dynamicsScenario predictionConsumption structureScienceQPetrologyQE420-499ENPetroleum Science, Vol 15, Iss 4, Pp 912-924 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Natural gas demand system System dynamics Scenario prediction Consumption structure Science Q Petrology QE420-499
spellingShingle	Natural gas demand system System dynamics Scenario prediction Consumption structure Science Q Petrology QE420-499 Xian-Zhong Mu Guo-Hao Li Guang-Wen Hu Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method
description	Abstract Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of the parameters of the model. The results showed that the total demand of natural gas would increase steadily year by year and reach in the range from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. Furthermore, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas consumption would still be the largest term, followed by the gas consumption as industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the natural gas demand growth, the impact of urbanization on urban gas consumption is significant, and the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.
format	article
author	Xian-Zhong Mu Guo-Hao Li Guang-Wen Hu
author_facet	Xian-Zhong Mu Guo-Hao Li Guang-Wen Hu
author_sort	Xian-Zhong Mu
title	Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method
title_short	Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method
title_full	Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method
title_fullStr	Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method
title_full_unstemmed	Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method
title_sort	modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method
publisher	KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
publishDate	2018
url	https://doaj.org/article/3a0af054a1424c4ca65cba11af25fa63
work_keys_str_mv	AT xianzhongmu modelingandscenariopredictionofanaturalgasdemandsystembasedonasystemdynamicsmethod AT guohaoli modelingandscenariopredictionofanaturalgasdemandsystembasedonasystemdynamicsmethod AT guangwenhu modelingandscenariopredictionofanaturalgasdemandsystembasedonasystemdynamicsmethod
_version_	1718395814599983104

Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method

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