Integrating System Dynamic and Fuzzy Logic for Economic Assessment of BOT Projects

The selection of the most appropriate project for the investment is one of the most important decisions that should be made by the private investors. This problem is of vital importance in BOT projects, where the total investment as well as the investor's profit should be recovered by the proje...

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Autores principales:	Farnad Nasirzadeh, Mostafa Khanzadi, Majid Alipour
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	FA
Publicado:	Iranian Society of Structrual Engineering (ISSE) 2016
Materias:	simulation economic assessment bot projects system dynamics npv Bridge engineering TG1-470 Building construction TH1-9745
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3a84b3876abf40cfaff65639d3cc3558
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3a84b3876abf40cfaff65639d3cc35582021-11-08T15:45:41ZIntegrating System Dynamic and Fuzzy Logic for Economic Assessment of BOT Projects2476-39772538-2616https://doaj.org/article/3a84b3876abf40cfaff65639d3cc35582016-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.jsce.ir/article_38634_0ac4504ee3338f568554682b6a3edb15.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/2476-3977https://doaj.org/toc/2538-2616The selection of the most appropriate project for the investment is one of the most important decisions that should be made by the private investors. This problem is of vital importance in BOT projects, where the total investment as well as the investor's profit should be recovered by the project's income. There are several approaches proposed by the researchers to determine the best economical project in comparison to other projects. The previous researches, however, faced with some major defects. As an example, the effects of various factors affecting the project evaluation process as well as the existing risks and uncertainties are not taken into account. In this research, economic assessment of BOT projects is performed by integrating system dynamic simulation approach and fuzzy logic. For this purpose, first the project's NPV is modeled considering all the influencing factors qualitatively. The relationships that exist between different factors are then determined and the quantitative model is built. Using the developed model, the value of NPV is simulated considering the effects of all the influencing factors and the existing uncertainties. Finally, the value of project's NPV is determined as a triangular fuzzy number. Finally, the best alternative project is selected by comparing the simulated values of NPV. To evaluate the capabilities and performance of the proposed model, the project economical evaluation is performed for two highway projects and the best project is selected.Farnad NasirzadehMostafa KhanzadiMajid AlipourIranian Society of Structrual Engineering (ISSE)articlesimulationeconomic assessmentbot projectssystem dynamicsnpvBridge engineeringTG1-470Building constructionTH1-9745FAJournal of Structural and Construction Engineering, Vol 2, Iss 4, Pp 90-103 (2016)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	FA
topic	simulation economic assessment bot projects system dynamics npv Bridge engineering TG1-470 Building construction TH1-9745
spellingShingle	simulation economic assessment bot projects system dynamics npv Bridge engineering TG1-470 Building construction TH1-9745 Farnad Nasirzadeh Mostafa Khanzadi Majid Alipour Integrating System Dynamic and Fuzzy Logic for Economic Assessment of BOT Projects
description	The selection of the most appropriate project for the investment is one of the most important decisions that should be made by the private investors. This problem is of vital importance in BOT projects, where the total investment as well as the investor's profit should be recovered by the project's income. There are several approaches proposed by the researchers to determine the best economical project in comparison to other projects. The previous researches, however, faced with some major defects. As an example, the effects of various factors affecting the project evaluation process as well as the existing risks and uncertainties are not taken into account. In this research, economic assessment of BOT projects is performed by integrating system dynamic simulation approach and fuzzy logic. For this purpose, first the project's NPV is modeled considering all the influencing factors qualitatively. The relationships that exist between different factors are then determined and the quantitative model is built. Using the developed model, the value of NPV is simulated considering the effects of all the influencing factors and the existing uncertainties. Finally, the value of project's NPV is determined as a triangular fuzzy number. Finally, the best alternative project is selected by comparing the simulated values of NPV. To evaluate the capabilities and performance of the proposed model, the project economical evaluation is performed for two highway projects and the best project is selected.
format	article
author	Farnad Nasirzadeh Mostafa Khanzadi Majid Alipour
author_facet	Farnad Nasirzadeh Mostafa Khanzadi Majid Alipour
author_sort	Farnad Nasirzadeh
title	Integrating System Dynamic and Fuzzy Logic for Economic Assessment of BOT Projects
title_short	Integrating System Dynamic and Fuzzy Logic for Economic Assessment of BOT Projects
title_full	Integrating System Dynamic and Fuzzy Logic for Economic Assessment of BOT Projects
title_fullStr	Integrating System Dynamic and Fuzzy Logic for Economic Assessment of BOT Projects
title_full_unstemmed	Integrating System Dynamic and Fuzzy Logic for Economic Assessment of BOT Projects
title_sort	integrating system dynamic and fuzzy logic for economic assessment of bot projects
publisher	Iranian Society of Structrual Engineering (ISSE)
publishDate	2016
url	https://doaj.org/article/3a84b3876abf40cfaff65639d3cc3558
work_keys_str_mv	AT farnadnasirzadeh integratingsystemdynamicandfuzzylogicforeconomicassessmentofbotprojects AT mostafakhanzadi integratingsystemdynamicandfuzzylogicforeconomicassessmentofbotprojects AT majidalipour integratingsystemdynamicandfuzzylogicforeconomicassessmentofbotprojects
_version_	1718441741300793344

Integrating System Dynamic and Fuzzy Logic for Economic Assessment of BOT Projects

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