Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2

Abstract An estimation of the impact of climatic conditions—measured with an index that combines temperature and humidity, the IPTCC—on the hospitalizations and deaths attributed to SARS-CoV-2 is proposed. The present paper uses weekly data from 54 French administrative regions between March 23, 202...

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Autores principales:	Hippolyte d’Albis, Dramane Coulibaly, Alix Roumagnac, Eurico de Carvalho Filho, Raphaël Bertrand
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3af81638fa1f4092b432286da9ada8b6
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3af81638fa1f4092b432286da9ada8b62021-11-14T12:20:21ZQuantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-210.1038/s41598-021-01392-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/3af81638fa1f4092b432286da9ada8b62021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01392-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract An estimation of the impact of climatic conditions—measured with an index that combines temperature and humidity, the IPTCC—on the hospitalizations and deaths attributed to SARS-CoV-2 is proposed. The present paper uses weekly data from 54 French administrative regions between March 23, 2020 and January 10, 2021. Firstly, a Granger causal analysis is developed and reveals that past values of the IPTCC contain information that allow for a better prediction of hospitalizations or deaths than that obtained without the IPTCC. Finally, a vector autoregressive model is estimated to evaluate the dynamic response of hospitalizations and deaths after an increase in the IPTCC. It is estimated that a 10-point increase in the IPTCC causes hospitalizations to rise by 2.9% (90% CI 0.7–5.0) one week after the increase, and by 4.1% (90% CI 2.1–6.4) and 4.4% (90% CI 2.5–6.3) in the two following weeks. Over ten weeks, the cumulative effect is estimated to reach 20.1%. Two weeks after the increase in the IPTCC, deaths are estimated to rise by 3.7% (90% CI 1.6–5.8). The cumulative effect from the second to the tenth weeks reaches 15.8%. The results are robust to the inclusion of air pollution indicators.Hippolyte d’AlbisDramane CoulibalyAlix RoumagnacEurico de Carvalho FilhoRaphaël BertrandNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Hippolyte d’Albis Dramane Coulibaly Alix Roumagnac Eurico de Carvalho Filho Raphaël Bertrand Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2
description	Abstract An estimation of the impact of climatic conditions—measured with an index that combines temperature and humidity, the IPTCC—on the hospitalizations and deaths attributed to SARS-CoV-2 is proposed. The present paper uses weekly data from 54 French administrative regions between March 23, 2020 and January 10, 2021. Firstly, a Granger causal analysis is developed and reveals that past values of the IPTCC contain information that allow for a better prediction of hospitalizations or deaths than that obtained without the IPTCC. Finally, a vector autoregressive model is estimated to evaluate the dynamic response of hospitalizations and deaths after an increase in the IPTCC. It is estimated that a 10-point increase in the IPTCC causes hospitalizations to rise by 2.9% (90% CI 0.7–5.0) one week after the increase, and by 4.1% (90% CI 2.1–6.4) and 4.4% (90% CI 2.5–6.3) in the two following weeks. Over ten weeks, the cumulative effect is estimated to reach 20.1%. Two weeks after the increase in the IPTCC, deaths are estimated to rise by 3.7% (90% CI 1.6–5.8). The cumulative effect from the second to the tenth weeks reaches 15.8%. The results are robust to the inclusion of air pollution indicators.
format	article
author	Hippolyte d’Albis Dramane Coulibaly Alix Roumagnac Eurico de Carvalho Filho Raphaël Bertrand
author_facet	Hippolyte d’Albis Dramane Coulibaly Alix Roumagnac Eurico de Carvalho Filho Raphaël Bertrand
author_sort	Hippolyte d’Albis
title	Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2
title_short	Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2
title_full	Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2
title_fullStr	Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2
title_full_unstemmed	Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2
title_sort	quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on french hospital admissions and deaths induced by sars-cov-2
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/3af81638fa1f4092b432286da9ada8b6
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Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2

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