Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate condition

Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Nursamsi I, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Sunarto, Pradan P, Budiharta S, Pitoyo A, Suhardono S, Setyono P, Indrawan M. 2021. Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate conditions. Biodiversitas 22:...

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Autores principales:	AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN, JATNA SUPRIATNA, NISYAWATI NISYAWATI, ILYAS NURSAMSI, SUTARNO SUTARNO, SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO, SUNARTO SUNARTO, PRAKASH PRADAN, SUGENG BUDIHARTA, ARI PITOYO, SAPTA SUHARDONO, PRABANG SETYONO, MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MBI & UNS Solo 2021
Materias:	climate change, endemic plant, indonesia, selaginella zollingeriana Biology (General) QH301-705.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3b19c23e99db4ed7893233770b9124c8
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3b19c23e99db4ed7893233770b9124c82021-11-22T00:57:38ZProjecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate condition1412-033X2085-472210.13057/biodiv/d220458https://doaj.org/article/3b19c23e99db4ed7893233770b9124c82021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://smujo.id/biodiv/article/view/7010https://doaj.org/toc/1412-033Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2085-4722Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Nursamsi I, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Sunarto, Pradan P, Budiharta S, Pitoyo A, Suhardono S, Setyono P, Indrawan M. 2021. Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate conditions. Biodiversitas 22: 2088-2103. The expansion of plant species to outside areas of its original localities has attracted great interest in theoretical ecology. The scientific curiosity of such phenomenon is even deeper when the geographical expansion is confined by natural boundaries and affected by environmental changes, including climates. This study aimed to predict the current suitable habitat niche of Selaginella zollingeriana Spring, a species with original distribution in Java Island, and to project its potential suitable niche in the Indonesian archipelago accounting for future climate conditions. In doing so, we applied the Ecological Niche Modelings (ENMs) using MaxEnt algorithm by employing 30 presence data of S. zollingeriana and twelve enviro-climatic variables. The model predicted around 17.22% (22,095 km2) of the Java Island area is potentially suitable for current habitat niche of S. zollingeriana, consisting of 10.93% (14,028 km2), 4.75% (6,097 km2), and 1.54% (1,970 km2) of low, medium, and high suitability areas, respectively. Under future scenarios, the model predicted the possibility of species expansion into the other four big islands (i.e., Sumatera, Borneo, Sulawesi, and Papua). Nonetheless, the model also predicted a declining trend of the availability of suitable niches wherein from 2030 to 2080 the modeled niche declined about 58% and 59% under the most optimistic and most pessimistic climate change projections, respectively. While this study provides a primary example in predicting species expansion in tropical archipelago, similar studies in a range of contexts (e.g., species, region) are recommended to add more evidence to strengthen the theoretical ground of expansion ecology under climate changes.AHMAD DWI SETYAWANJATNA SUPRIATNANISYAWATI NISYAWATIILYAS NURSAMSISUTARNO SUTARNOSUGIYARTO SUGIYARTOSUNARTO SUNARTOPRAKASH PRADANSUGENG BUDIHARTAARI PITOYOSAPTA SUHARDONOPRABANG SETYONOMUHAMMAD INDRAWANMBI & UNS Soloarticleclimate change, endemic plant, indonesia, selaginella zollingerianaBiology (General)QH301-705.5ENBiodiversitas, Vol 22, Iss 4 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change, endemic plant, indonesia, selaginella zollingeriana Biology (General) QH301-705.5
spellingShingle	climate change, endemic plant, indonesia, selaginella zollingeriana Biology (General) QH301-705.5 AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN JATNA SUPRIATNA NISYAWATI NISYAWATI ILYAS NURSAMSI SUTARNO SUTARNO SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO SUNARTO SUNARTO PRAKASH PRADAN SUGENG BUDIHARTA ARI PITOYO SAPTA SUHARDONO PRABANG SETYONO MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate condition
description	Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Nursamsi I, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Sunarto, Pradan P, Budiharta S, Pitoyo A, Suhardono S, Setyono P, Indrawan M. 2021. Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate conditions. Biodiversitas 22: 2088-2103. The expansion of plant species to outside areas of its original localities has attracted great interest in theoretical ecology. The scientific curiosity of such phenomenon is even deeper when the geographical expansion is confined by natural boundaries and affected by environmental changes, including climates. This study aimed to predict the current suitable habitat niche of Selaginella zollingeriana Spring, a species with original distribution in Java Island, and to project its potential suitable niche in the Indonesian archipelago accounting for future climate conditions. In doing so, we applied the Ecological Niche Modelings (ENMs) using MaxEnt algorithm by employing 30 presence data of S. zollingeriana and twelve enviro-climatic variables. The model predicted around 17.22% (22,095 km2) of the Java Island area is potentially suitable for current habitat niche of S. zollingeriana, consisting of 10.93% (14,028 km2), 4.75% (6,097 km2), and 1.54% (1,970 km2) of low, medium, and high suitability areas, respectively. Under future scenarios, the model predicted the possibility of species expansion into the other four big islands (i.e., Sumatera, Borneo, Sulawesi, and Papua). Nonetheless, the model also predicted a declining trend of the availability of suitable niches wherein from 2030 to 2080 the modeled niche declined about 58% and 59% under the most optimistic and most pessimistic climate change projections, respectively. While this study provides a primary example in predicting species expansion in tropical archipelago, similar studies in a range of contexts (e.g., species, region) are recommended to add more evidence to strengthen the theoretical ground of expansion ecology under climate changes.
format	article
author	AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN JATNA SUPRIATNA NISYAWATI NISYAWATI ILYAS NURSAMSI SUTARNO SUTARNO SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO SUNARTO SUNARTO PRAKASH PRADAN SUGENG BUDIHARTA ARI PITOYO SAPTA SUHARDONO PRABANG SETYONO MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN
author_facet	AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN JATNA SUPRIATNA NISYAWATI NISYAWATI ILYAS NURSAMSI SUTARNO SUTARNO SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO SUNARTO SUNARTO PRAKASH PRADAN SUGENG BUDIHARTA ARI PITOYO SAPTA SUHARDONO PRABANG SETYONO MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN
author_sort	AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN
title	Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate condition
title_short	Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate condition
title_full	Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate condition
title_fullStr	Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate condition
title_full_unstemmed	Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate condition
title_sort	projecting expansion range of selaginella zollingeriana in the indonesian archipelago under future climate condition
publisher	MBI & UNS Solo
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/3b19c23e99db4ed7893233770b9124c8
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Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate condition

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