Implications of formal security theories on COVID-19 crisis management

The growing "chaotic" potential of modern crises, such as the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, imposes an urgent need to review the existing and find more flexible methodological tools, in order to strengthen preparedness and timely response to the crisis. By analyzing various aspec...

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Autor principal:	Stanković Nevena G.
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	SR
Publicado:	University of Belgrade - Faculty of Security Studies, Belgrade 2020
Materias:	covid-19 deterministic chaos theory multivariate analysis game theory resilience Military Science U Social sciences (General) H1-99
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3b972b7262c64bbaaafad638409d64c4
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3b972b7262c64bbaaafad638409d64c42021-12-05T21:05:36ZImplications of formal security theories on COVID-19 crisis management1821-150X2683-573810.5937/fb_godisnjak0-27991https://doaj.org/article/3b972b7262c64bbaaafad638409d64c42020-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://scindeks-clanci.ceon.rs/data/pdf/1821-150X/2020/1821-150X2001025S.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/1821-150Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2683-5738The growing "chaotic" potential of modern crises, such as the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, imposes an urgent need to review the existing and find more flexible methodological tools, in order to strengthen preparedness and timely response to the crisis. By analyzing various aspects of managing the current crisis situation, it is suggested that the application of different methods of mathematical-operational research would result in potentially new and significant insights into this complex problem situation. The paper, therefore, seeks to point out the implications of formal security theories and different theoretical models of resilience on COVID-19 crisis management. First, the application of deterministic chaos theory as a tool for early warning and, thus, avoiding strategic surprises is suggested. In that way, the threatening "chaotic" potential of the risks that could be seen would be recognized. Furthermore, predictive models, as a "part" of the apparatus of certain versions of game theory, can contribute to more optimal strategic decision-making, in terms of making decisions that would maximize the "usefulness" of the outcome of the actors themselves (primarily towards "nature"), i.e. minimize inevitable negative side effects. Finally, the potential of the application of various multivariate techniques for making the most valid decisions at the tactical and operational level is pointed out. Finally, models of resilience are presented, each of which has the potential to analyze the impact of certain aspects of managing the current crisis situation.Stanković Nevena G.University of Belgrade - Faculty of Security Studies, Belgradearticlecovid-19deterministic chaos theorymultivariate analysisgame theoryresilienceMilitary ScienceUSocial sciences (General)H1-99SRGodišnjak Fakulteta bezbednosti, Vol 2020, Iss 1, Pp 25-40 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	SR
topic	covid-19 deterministic chaos theory multivariate analysis game theory resilience Military Science U Social sciences (General) H1-99
spellingShingle	covid-19 deterministic chaos theory multivariate analysis game theory resilience Military Science U Social sciences (General) H1-99 Stanković Nevena G. Implications of formal security theories on COVID-19 crisis management
description	The growing "chaotic" potential of modern crises, such as the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, imposes an urgent need to review the existing and find more flexible methodological tools, in order to strengthen preparedness and timely response to the crisis. By analyzing various aspects of managing the current crisis situation, it is suggested that the application of different methods of mathematical-operational research would result in potentially new and significant insights into this complex problem situation. The paper, therefore, seeks to point out the implications of formal security theories and different theoretical models of resilience on COVID-19 crisis management. First, the application of deterministic chaos theory as a tool for early warning and, thus, avoiding strategic surprises is suggested. In that way, the threatening "chaotic" potential of the risks that could be seen would be recognized. Furthermore, predictive models, as a "part" of the apparatus of certain versions of game theory, can contribute to more optimal strategic decision-making, in terms of making decisions that would maximize the "usefulness" of the outcome of the actors themselves (primarily towards "nature"), i.e. minimize inevitable negative side effects. Finally, the potential of the application of various multivariate techniques for making the most valid decisions at the tactical and operational level is pointed out. Finally, models of resilience are presented, each of which has the potential to analyze the impact of certain aspects of managing the current crisis situation.
format	article
author	Stanković Nevena G.
author_facet	Stanković Nevena G.
author_sort	Stanković Nevena G.
title	Implications of formal security theories on COVID-19 crisis management
title_short	Implications of formal security theories on COVID-19 crisis management
title_full	Implications of formal security theories on COVID-19 crisis management
title_fullStr	Implications of formal security theories on COVID-19 crisis management
title_full_unstemmed	Implications of formal security theories on COVID-19 crisis management
title_sort	implications of formal security theories on covid-19 crisis management
publisher	University of Belgrade - Faculty of Security Studies, Belgrade
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/3b972b7262c64bbaaafad638409d64c4
work_keys_str_mv	AT stankovicnevenag implicationsofformalsecuritytheoriesoncovid19crisismanagement
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Implications of formal security theories on COVID-19 crisis management

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