Comparative Analysis of Load Forecasting Models for Varying Time Horizons and Load Aggregation Levels

Power system operators are confronted with a multitude of new forecasting tasks to ensure a constant supply security despite the decreasing number of fully controllable energy producers. With this paper, we aim to facilitate the selection of suitable forecasting approaches for the load forecasting p...

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Autores principales:	Leonard Burg, Gonca Gürses-Tran, Reinhard Madlener, Antonello Monti
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	load forecasting time series energy flexibility day-ahead market supply security Technology T
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3bb8d1ee5b564894b64352fcace08d99
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3bb8d1ee5b564894b64352fcace08d992021-11-11T15:54:58ZComparative Analysis of Load Forecasting Models for Varying Time Horizons and Load Aggregation Levels10.3390/en142171281996-1073https://doaj.org/article/3bb8d1ee5b564894b64352fcace08d992021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/21/7128https://doaj.org/toc/1996-1073Power system operators are confronted with a multitude of new forecasting tasks to ensure a constant supply security despite the decreasing number of fully controllable energy producers. With this paper, we aim to facilitate the selection of suitable forecasting approaches for the load forecasting problem. First, we provide a classification of load forecasting cases in two dimensions: temporal and hierarchical. Then, we identify typical features and models for forecasting and compare their applicability in a structured manner depending on six previously defined cases. These models are compared against real data in terms of their computational effort and accuracy during development and testing. From this comparative analysis, we derive a generic guide for the selection of the best prediction models and features per case.Leonard BurgGonca Gürses-TranReinhard MadlenerAntonello MontiMDPI AGarticleload forecastingtime seriesenergy flexibilityday-ahead marketsupply securityTechnologyTENEnergies, Vol 14, Iss 7128, p 7128 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	load forecasting time series energy flexibility day-ahead market supply security Technology T
spellingShingle	load forecasting time series energy flexibility day-ahead market supply security Technology T Leonard Burg Gonca Gürses-Tran Reinhard Madlener Antonello Monti Comparative Analysis of Load Forecasting Models for Varying Time Horizons and Load Aggregation Levels
description	Power system operators are confronted with a multitude of new forecasting tasks to ensure a constant supply security despite the decreasing number of fully controllable energy producers. With this paper, we aim to facilitate the selection of suitable forecasting approaches for the load forecasting problem. First, we provide a classification of load forecasting cases in two dimensions: temporal and hierarchical. Then, we identify typical features and models for forecasting and compare their applicability in a structured manner depending on six previously defined cases. These models are compared against real data in terms of their computational effort and accuracy during development and testing. From this comparative analysis, we derive a generic guide for the selection of the best prediction models and features per case.
format	article
author	Leonard Burg Gonca Gürses-Tran Reinhard Madlener Antonello Monti
author_facet	Leonard Burg Gonca Gürses-Tran Reinhard Madlener Antonello Monti
author_sort	Leonard Burg
title	Comparative Analysis of Load Forecasting Models for Varying Time Horizons and Load Aggregation Levels
title_short	Comparative Analysis of Load Forecasting Models for Varying Time Horizons and Load Aggregation Levels
title_full	Comparative Analysis of Load Forecasting Models for Varying Time Horizons and Load Aggregation Levels
title_fullStr	Comparative Analysis of Load Forecasting Models for Varying Time Horizons and Load Aggregation Levels
title_full_unstemmed	Comparative Analysis of Load Forecasting Models for Varying Time Horizons and Load Aggregation Levels
title_sort	comparative analysis of load forecasting models for varying time horizons and load aggregation levels
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/3bb8d1ee5b564894b64352fcace08d99
work_keys_str_mv	AT leonardburg comparativeanalysisofloadforecastingmodelsforvaryingtimehorizonsandloadaggregationlevels AT goncagursestran comparativeanalysisofloadforecastingmodelsforvaryingtimehorizonsandloadaggregationlevels AT reinhardmadlener comparativeanalysisofloadforecastingmodelsforvaryingtimehorizonsandloadaggregationlevels AT antonellomonti comparativeanalysisofloadforecastingmodelsforvaryingtimehorizonsandloadaggregationlevels
_version_	1718432853178449920

Comparative Analysis of Load Forecasting Models for Varying Time Horizons and Load Aggregation Levels

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