Development of a prediction model for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in older adults taking into account AZGP1

Abstract Zinc-alpha 2-glycoprotein (AZGP1) is a serum protein with postulated functions in metabolism, cancer and cardiovascular disease. We developed new prediction models for mortality or cardiovascular events investigating the predictive potential of serum AZGP1 in a community-based cohort of old...

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Autores principales:	Dörte Huscher, Natalie Ebert, Inga Soerensen-Zender, Nina Mielke, Elke Schaeffner, Roland Schmitt
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3bbf06fba1db47b1b8f24bccca647aa9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3bbf06fba1db47b1b8f24bccca647aa92021-12-02T15:02:23ZDevelopment of a prediction model for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in older adults taking into account AZGP110.1038/s41598-021-91169-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/3bbf06fba1db47b1b8f24bccca647aa92021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91169-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Zinc-alpha 2-glycoprotein (AZGP1) is a serum protein with postulated functions in metabolism, cancer and cardiovascular disease. We developed new prediction models for mortality or cardiovascular events investigating the predictive potential of serum AZGP1 in a community-based cohort of older adults. We measured AZGP1 (μg/ml) in stored serum samples of 930 individuals of the Berlin Initiative Study, a prospective, population-based cohort of adults aged ≥ 70. We determined the prognostic potential of 20 knowledge-based predictors including AZGP1 for the outcomes of mortality or the composite endpoint of death and cardiovascular events (stroke, myocardial infarction (MI)) using Cox models; their model fit was evaluated with calibration plots, goodness-of-fit tests and c-indices. During median follow-up of 48.3 months, 70 incident strokes, 38 incident MI and 234 deaths occurred. We found no associations or correlations between AZGP1 and other candidate variables. After multivariable Cox regression with backward-selection AZGP1 remained in both models for mortality (HR = 0.44, 95%CI: 0.24–0.80) and for the composite endpoint (HR = 0.43, 95%CI: 0.23–0.82). Within newly built prediction models, we found that increased AZGP1 levels were predictive for lower risk of mortality and the composite endpoint in older adults. AZGP1 as a predictor warrants further validation in older adults.Dörte HuscherNatalie EbertInga Soerensen-ZenderNina MielkeElke SchaeffnerRoland SchmittNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Dörte Huscher Natalie Ebert Inga Soerensen-Zender Nina Mielke Elke Schaeffner Roland Schmitt Development of a prediction model for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in older adults taking into account AZGP1
description	Abstract Zinc-alpha 2-glycoprotein (AZGP1) is a serum protein with postulated functions in metabolism, cancer and cardiovascular disease. We developed new prediction models for mortality or cardiovascular events investigating the predictive potential of serum AZGP1 in a community-based cohort of older adults. We measured AZGP1 (μg/ml) in stored serum samples of 930 individuals of the Berlin Initiative Study, a prospective, population-based cohort of adults aged ≥ 70. We determined the prognostic potential of 20 knowledge-based predictors including AZGP1 for the outcomes of mortality or the composite endpoint of death and cardiovascular events (stroke, myocardial infarction (MI)) using Cox models; their model fit was evaluated with calibration plots, goodness-of-fit tests and c-indices. During median follow-up of 48.3 months, 70 incident strokes, 38 incident MI and 234 deaths occurred. We found no associations or correlations between AZGP1 and other candidate variables. After multivariable Cox regression with backward-selection AZGP1 remained in both models for mortality (HR = 0.44, 95%CI: 0.24–0.80) and for the composite endpoint (HR = 0.43, 95%CI: 0.23–0.82). Within newly built prediction models, we found that increased AZGP1 levels were predictive for lower risk of mortality and the composite endpoint in older adults. AZGP1 as a predictor warrants further validation in older adults.
format	article
author	Dörte Huscher Natalie Ebert Inga Soerensen-Zender Nina Mielke Elke Schaeffner Roland Schmitt
author_facet	Dörte Huscher Natalie Ebert Inga Soerensen-Zender Nina Mielke Elke Schaeffner Roland Schmitt
author_sort	Dörte Huscher
title	Development of a prediction model for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in older adults taking into account AZGP1
title_short	Development of a prediction model for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in older adults taking into account AZGP1
title_full	Development of a prediction model for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in older adults taking into account AZGP1
title_fullStr	Development of a prediction model for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in older adults taking into account AZGP1
title_full_unstemmed	Development of a prediction model for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in older adults taking into account AZGP1
title_sort	development of a prediction model for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in older adults taking into account azgp1
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/3bbf06fba1db47b1b8f24bccca647aa9
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Development of a prediction model for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in older adults taking into account AZGP1

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