Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java

Predicting the effect of climate change on rice yield is crucial as global food demand rapidly increases with the human population. This study combined simulated daily weather data (MarkSim) and the CERES-Rice crop model from the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software t...

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Autores principales:	Andrianto Ansari, Yu-Pin Lin, Huu-Sheng Lur
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	MarkSim DSSAT climate change adaptation rice production Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3c4c8ccecfeb4c308048b8bbad5652f7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3c4c8ccecfeb4c308048b8bbad5652f72021-11-25T17:31:02ZEvaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java10.3390/environments81101172076-3298https://doaj.org/article/3c4c8ccecfeb4c308048b8bbad5652f72021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2076-3298/8/11/117https://doaj.org/toc/2076-3298Predicting the effect of climate change on rice yield is crucial as global food demand rapidly increases with the human population. This study combined simulated daily weather data (MarkSim) and the CERES-Rice crop model from the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software to predict rice production for three planting seasons under four climate change scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for the years 2021 to 2050 in the Keduang subwatershed, Wonogiri Regency, Central Java, Indonesia. The CERES-Rice model was calibrated and validated for the local rice cultivar (Ciherang) with historical data using GenCalc software. The model evaluation indicated good performance with both calibration (coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>) = 0.89, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) = 0.88) and validation (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.87, NSE = 0.76). Our results suggest that the predicted changing rainfall patterns, rising temperature, and intensifying solar radiation under climate change can reduce the rice yield in all three growing seasons. Under RCP 8.5, the impact on rice yield in the second dry season may decrease by up to 11.77% in the 2050s. Relevant strategies associated with policies based on the results were provided for decision makers. Furthermore, to adapt the impact of climate change on rice production, a dynamic cropping calendar, modernization of irrigation systems, and integrated plant nutrient management should be developed for farming practices based on our results in the study area. Our study is not only the first assessment of the impact of climate change on the study site but also provides solutions under projected rice shortages that threaten regional food security.Andrianto AnsariYu-Pin LinHuu-Sheng LurMDPI AGarticleMarkSimDSSATclimate changeadaptationrice productionEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066ENEnvironments, Vol 8, Iss 117, p 117 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	MarkSim DSSAT climate change adaptation rice production Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066
spellingShingle	MarkSim DSSAT climate change adaptation rice production Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Andrianto Ansari Yu-Pin Lin Huu-Sheng Lur Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java
description	Predicting the effect of climate change on rice yield is crucial as global food demand rapidly increases with the human population. This study combined simulated daily weather data (MarkSim) and the CERES-Rice crop model from the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software to predict rice production for three planting seasons under four climate change scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for the years 2021 to 2050 in the Keduang subwatershed, Wonogiri Regency, Central Java, Indonesia. The CERES-Rice model was calibrated and validated for the local rice cultivar (Ciherang) with historical data using GenCalc software. The model evaluation indicated good performance with both calibration (coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>) = 0.89, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) = 0.88) and validation (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.87, NSE = 0.76). Our results suggest that the predicted changing rainfall patterns, rising temperature, and intensifying solar radiation under climate change can reduce the rice yield in all three growing seasons. Under RCP 8.5, the impact on rice yield in the second dry season may decrease by up to 11.77% in the 2050s. Relevant strategies associated with policies based on the results were provided for decision makers. Furthermore, to adapt the impact of climate change on rice production, a dynamic cropping calendar, modernization of irrigation systems, and integrated plant nutrient management should be developed for farming practices based on our results in the study area. Our study is not only the first assessment of the impact of climate change on the study site but also provides solutions under projected rice shortages that threaten regional food security.
format	article
author	Andrianto Ansari Yu-Pin Lin Huu-Sheng Lur
author_facet	Andrianto Ansari Yu-Pin Lin Huu-Sheng Lur
author_sort	Andrianto Ansari
title	Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java
title_short	Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java
title_full	Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java
title_fullStr	Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java
title_full_unstemmed	Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java
title_sort	evaluating and adapting climate change impacts on rice production in indonesia: a case study of the keduang subwatershed, central java
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/3c4c8ccecfeb4c308048b8bbad5652f7
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Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java

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