Estimating the Epicenter of an Impending Strong Earthquake by Combining the Seismicity Order Parameter Variability Analysis with Earthquake Networks and Nowcasting: Application in the Eastern Mediterranean

The variance <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mi>κ</mi><mn>1</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> of the natural time analysis of...

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Autores principales:	Panayiotis K. Varotsos, Jennifer Perez-Oregon, Efthimios S. Skordas, Nicholas V. Sarlis
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	earthquake physics earthquake networks natural time analysis order parameter fluctuations earthquake nowcasting eastern Mediterranean Technology T Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3cb4a8053bf1447190e6434ab6951b50
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3cb4a8053bf1447190e6434ab6951b502021-11-11T15:10:01ZEstimating the Epicenter of an Impending Strong Earthquake by Combining the Seismicity Order Parameter Variability Analysis with Earthquake Networks and Nowcasting: Application in the Eastern Mediterranean10.3390/app1121100932076-3417https://doaj.org/article/3cb4a8053bf1447190e6434ab6951b502021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/21/10093https://doaj.org/toc/2076-3417The variance <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mi>κ</mi><mn>1</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> of the natural time analysis of earthquake catalogs was proposed in 2005 as an order parameter for seismicity, whose fluctuations proved, in 2011, to be minimized a few months before the strongest mainshock when studying the earthquakes in a given area. After the introduction of earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns, in 2012, the study of their higher order cores revealed, in 2019, the selection of appropriate areas in which the precursory minima <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mi>β</mi><mrow><mi>m</mi><mi>i</mi><mi>n</mi></mrow></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> of the fluctuations <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mi>β</mi></semantics></math></inline-formula> of the seismicity order parameter <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mi>κ</mi><mn>1</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> could be observed up to six months before all strong earthquakes above a certain threshold. The eastern Mediterranean region was studied in 2019, where all earthquakes of magnitude <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>M</mi><mo>≥</mo><mn>7.1</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> were found to be preceded by <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mi>β</mi><mrow><mi>m</mi><mi>i</mi><mi>n</mi></mrow></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> without any false alarm. Combining these results with the method of nowcasting earthquakes, introduced in 2016, for seismic risk estimation, here, we show that the epicenter of an impending strong earthquake can be estimated. This is achieved by employing—at the time of observing the <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mi>β</mi><mrow><mi>m</mi><mi>i</mi><mi>n</mi></mrow></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula>—nowcasting earthquakes in a square lattice grid in the study area and by averaging, self-consistently, the results obtained for the earthquake potential score. This is understood in the following context: The minimum <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mi>β</mi><mrow><mi>m</mi><mi>i</mi><mi>n</mi></mrow></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> is ascertained to almost coincide with the onset of Seismic Electric Signals activity, which is accompanied by the development of long range correlations between earthquake magnitudes in the area that is a candidate for a mainshock.Panayiotis K. VarotsosJennifer Perez-OregonEfthimios S. SkordasNicholas V. SarlisMDPI AGarticleearthquake physicsearthquake networksnatural time analysisorder parameter fluctuationsearthquake nowcastingeastern MediterraneanTechnologyTEngineering (General). Civil engineering (General)TA1-2040Biology (General)QH301-705.5PhysicsQC1-999ChemistryQD1-999ENApplied Sciences, Vol 11, Iss 10093, p 10093 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	earthquake physics earthquake networks natural time analysis order parameter fluctuations earthquake nowcasting eastern Mediterranean Technology T Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999
spellingShingle	earthquake physics earthquake networks natural time analysis order parameter fluctuations earthquake nowcasting eastern Mediterranean Technology T Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 Panayiotis K. Varotsos Jennifer Perez-Oregon Efthimios S. Skordas Nicholas V. Sarlis Estimating the Epicenter of an Impending Strong Earthquake by Combining the Seismicity Order Parameter Variability Analysis with Earthquake Networks and Nowcasting: Application in the Eastern Mediterranean
description	The variance <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mi>κ</mi><mn>1</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> of the natural time analysis of earthquake catalogs was proposed in 2005 as an order parameter for seismicity, whose fluctuations proved, in 2011, to be minimized a few months before the strongest mainshock when studying the earthquakes in a given area. After the introduction of earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns, in 2012, the study of their higher order cores revealed, in 2019, the selection of appropriate areas in which the precursory minima <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mi>β</mi><mrow><mi>m</mi><mi>i</mi><mi>n</mi></mrow></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> of the fluctuations <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mi>β</mi></semantics></math></inline-formula> of the seismicity order parameter <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mi>κ</mi><mn>1</mn></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> could be observed up to six months before all strong earthquakes above a certain threshold. The eastern Mediterranean region was studied in 2019, where all earthquakes of magnitude <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>M</mi><mo>≥</mo><mn>7.1</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> were found to be preceded by <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mi>β</mi><mrow><mi>m</mi><mi>i</mi><mi>n</mi></mrow></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> without any false alarm. Combining these results with the method of nowcasting earthquakes, introduced in 2016, for seismic risk estimation, here, we show that the epicenter of an impending strong earthquake can be estimated. This is achieved by employing—at the time of observing the <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mi>β</mi><mrow><mi>m</mi><mi>i</mi><mi>n</mi></mrow></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula>—nowcasting earthquakes in a square lattice grid in the study area and by averaging, self-consistently, the results obtained for the earthquake potential score. This is understood in the following context: The minimum <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msub><mi>β</mi><mrow><mi>m</mi><mi>i</mi><mi>n</mi></mrow></msub></semantics></math></inline-formula> is ascertained to almost coincide with the onset of Seismic Electric Signals activity, which is accompanied by the development of long range correlations between earthquake magnitudes in the area that is a candidate for a mainshock.
format	article
author	Panayiotis K. Varotsos Jennifer Perez-Oregon Efthimios S. Skordas Nicholas V. Sarlis
author_facet	Panayiotis K. Varotsos Jennifer Perez-Oregon Efthimios S. Skordas Nicholas V. Sarlis
author_sort	Panayiotis K. Varotsos
title	Estimating the Epicenter of an Impending Strong Earthquake by Combining the Seismicity Order Parameter Variability Analysis with Earthquake Networks and Nowcasting: Application in the Eastern Mediterranean
title_short	Estimating the Epicenter of an Impending Strong Earthquake by Combining the Seismicity Order Parameter Variability Analysis with Earthquake Networks and Nowcasting: Application in the Eastern Mediterranean
title_full	Estimating the Epicenter of an Impending Strong Earthquake by Combining the Seismicity Order Parameter Variability Analysis with Earthquake Networks and Nowcasting: Application in the Eastern Mediterranean
title_fullStr	Estimating the Epicenter of an Impending Strong Earthquake by Combining the Seismicity Order Parameter Variability Analysis with Earthquake Networks and Nowcasting: Application in the Eastern Mediterranean
title_full_unstemmed	Estimating the Epicenter of an Impending Strong Earthquake by Combining the Seismicity Order Parameter Variability Analysis with Earthquake Networks and Nowcasting: Application in the Eastern Mediterranean
title_sort	estimating the epicenter of an impending strong earthquake by combining the seismicity order parameter variability analysis with earthquake networks and nowcasting: application in the eastern mediterranean
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/3cb4a8053bf1447190e6434ab6951b50
work_keys_str_mv	AT panayiotiskvarotsos estimatingtheepicenterofanimpendingstrongearthquakebycombiningtheseismicityorderparametervariabilityanalysiswithearthquakenetworksandnowcastingapplicationintheeasternmediterranean AT jenniferperezoregon estimatingtheepicenterofanimpendingstrongearthquakebycombiningtheseismicityorderparametervariabilityanalysiswithearthquakenetworksandnowcastingapplicationintheeasternmediterranean AT efthimiossskordas estimatingtheepicenterofanimpendingstrongearthquakebycombiningtheseismicityorderparametervariabilityanalysiswithearthquakenetworksandnowcastingapplicationintheeasternmediterranean AT nicholasvsarlis estimatingtheepicenterofanimpendingstrongearthquakebycombiningtheseismicityorderparametervariabilityanalysiswithearthquakenetworksandnowcastingapplicationintheeasternmediterranean
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Estimating the Epicenter of an Impending Strong Earthquake by Combining the Seismicity Order Parameter Variability Analysis with Earthquake Networks and Nowcasting: Application in the Eastern Mediterranean

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