Development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in Chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study

Abstract Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death among patients receiving peritoneal dialysis. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for cardiovascular death within 2 years after the initiation of peritoneal dialysis (PD). A cohort including all patients registered wi...

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Autores principales:	Dahai Yu, Yamei Cai, Ying Chen, Tao Chen, Rui Qin, Zhanzheng Zhao, David Simmons
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2018
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3cc380b3103340889b4d4b90e6a8306d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3cc380b3103340889b4d4b90e6a8306d2021-12-02T15:08:54ZDevelopment and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in Chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study10.1038/s41598-018-20160-32045-2322https://doaj.org/article/3cc380b3103340889b4d4b90e6a8306d2018-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-20160-3https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death among patients receiving peritoneal dialysis. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for cardiovascular death within 2 years after the initiation of peritoneal dialysis (PD). A cohort including all patients registered with the Henan Peritoneal Dialysis Registry (HPDR) between 2007 and 2014. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the risk prediction model. The HPDR data was randomly divided into two cohorts with 60% (1,835 patients) for model derivation, and 40% (1,219 patients) for model validation. The absolute rate of cardiovascular mortality was 14.2% and 14.4 in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. Age, body mass index, blood pressure, serum lipids, fasting glucose, sodium, albumin, total protein, and phosphorus were the strongest predictors of cardiovascular mortality in the final model. Discrimination of the model was similar in both cohorts, with a C statistic above 0.70, with good calibration of observed and predicted risks. The new prediction model that has been developed and validated with clinical measurements that are available at the point of initiation of PD and could serve as a tool to screen for patients at high risk of cardiovascular death and tailor more intensive cardio-protective care.Dahai YuYamei CaiYing ChenTao ChenRui QinZhanzheng ZhaoDavid SimmonsNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Dahai Yu Yamei Cai Ying Chen Tao Chen Rui Qin Zhanzheng Zhao David Simmons Development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in Chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study
description	Abstract Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death among patients receiving peritoneal dialysis. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for cardiovascular death within 2 years after the initiation of peritoneal dialysis (PD). A cohort including all patients registered with the Henan Peritoneal Dialysis Registry (HPDR) between 2007 and 2014. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the risk prediction model. The HPDR data was randomly divided into two cohorts with 60% (1,835 patients) for model derivation, and 40% (1,219 patients) for model validation. The absolute rate of cardiovascular mortality was 14.2% and 14.4 in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. Age, body mass index, blood pressure, serum lipids, fasting glucose, sodium, albumin, total protein, and phosphorus were the strongest predictors of cardiovascular mortality in the final model. Discrimination of the model was similar in both cohorts, with a C statistic above 0.70, with good calibration of observed and predicted risks. The new prediction model that has been developed and validated with clinical measurements that are available at the point of initiation of PD and could serve as a tool to screen for patients at high risk of cardiovascular death and tailor more intensive cardio-protective care.
format	article
author	Dahai Yu Yamei Cai Ying Chen Tao Chen Rui Qin Zhanzheng Zhao David Simmons
author_facet	Dahai Yu Yamei Cai Ying Chen Tao Chen Rui Qin Zhanzheng Zhao David Simmons
author_sort	Dahai Yu
title	Development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in Chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study
title_short	Development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in Chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study
title_full	Development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in Chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study
title_fullStr	Development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in Chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study
title_full_unstemmed	Development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in Chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study
title_sort	development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2018
url	https://doaj.org/article/3cc380b3103340889b4d4b90e6a8306d
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_version_	1718387992814419968

Development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular mortality in Chinese people initialising peritoneal dialysis: a cohort study

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