The fractal biology of plague and the future of civilization

At the time of writing, the CoViD-19 pandemic was in its second wave with infections doubling every several days to two weeks in many parts of the world. Such geometric (or exponential) expansion is the hallmark of unconstrained population growth in all species ranging from submicroscopic viral par...

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Autor principal: William Rees
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Publicado: The White Horse Press 2020
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:3d1f916caf7b456d84db68244b56202b2021-12-02T15:28:21ZThe fractal biology of plague and the future of civilization2398-54882398-5496https://doaj.org/article/3d1f916caf7b456d84db68244b56202b2020-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://whp-journals.co.uk/JPS/article/view/653https://doaj.org/toc/2398-5488https://doaj.org/toc/2398-5496 At the time of writing, the CoViD-19 pandemic was in its second wave with infections doubling every several days to two weeks in many parts of the world. Such geometric (or exponential) expansion is the hallmark of unconstrained population growth in all species ranging from submicroscopic viral particles through bacteria to whales and humans; this suggests a kind of ‘fractal geometry’ in bio-reproductive patterns. In nature, population outbreaks are invariably reversed by the onset of both endogenous and exogenous negative feedback – reduced fecundity, resource shortages, spatial competition, disease, etc., serve to restore the reference population to below carrying capacity, sometimes by dramatic collapse. H. sapiens is no exception – our species is nearing the peak of a fossil-fueled ~200 year plague-like population outbreak that is beginning to trigger serious manifestations of negative feedback, including climate change and CoViD-19 itself. The human population will decline dramatically; theoretically, we can choose between a chaotic collapse imposed by nature or international cooperation to plan a managed, equitable contraction of the human enterprise. William ReesThe White Horse PressarticlepandemicsCoViD-19SARS-CoV-2fractal geometric growthovershootplagueEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Demography. Population. Vital eventsHB848-3697ENThe Journal of Population and Sustainability, Vol 5, Iss 1 (2020)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic pandemics
CoViD-19
SARS-CoV-2
fractal geometric growth
overshoot
plague
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Demography. Population. Vital events
HB848-3697
spellingShingle pandemics
CoViD-19
SARS-CoV-2
fractal geometric growth
overshoot
plague
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Demography. Population. Vital events
HB848-3697
William Rees
The fractal biology of plague and the future of civilization
description At the time of writing, the CoViD-19 pandemic was in its second wave with infections doubling every several days to two weeks in many parts of the world. Such geometric (or exponential) expansion is the hallmark of unconstrained population growth in all species ranging from submicroscopic viral particles through bacteria to whales and humans; this suggests a kind of ‘fractal geometry’ in bio-reproductive patterns. In nature, population outbreaks are invariably reversed by the onset of both endogenous and exogenous negative feedback – reduced fecundity, resource shortages, spatial competition, disease, etc., serve to restore the reference population to below carrying capacity, sometimes by dramatic collapse. H. sapiens is no exception – our species is nearing the peak of a fossil-fueled ~200 year plague-like population outbreak that is beginning to trigger serious manifestations of negative feedback, including climate change and CoViD-19 itself. The human population will decline dramatically; theoretically, we can choose between a chaotic collapse imposed by nature or international cooperation to plan a managed, equitable contraction of the human enterprise.
format article
author William Rees
author_facet William Rees
author_sort William Rees
title The fractal biology of plague and the future of civilization
title_short The fractal biology of plague and the future of civilization
title_full The fractal biology of plague and the future of civilization
title_fullStr The fractal biology of plague and the future of civilization
title_full_unstemmed The fractal biology of plague and the future of civilization
title_sort fractal biology of plague and the future of civilization
publisher The White Horse Press
publishDate 2020
url https://doaj.org/article/3d1f916caf7b456d84db68244b56202b
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