The mapping of cancer incidence and mortality trends in the UK from 1980–2013 reveals a potential for overdiagnosis

Abstract The incidence of cancer in the United Kingdom has increased significantly over the last four decades. The aim of this study was to examine trends in UK cancer incidence and mortality by cancer site and assess the potential for overdiagnosis. Using Cancer Research UK incidence and mortality...

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Autores principales:	Jason L. Oke, Jack W. O’Sullivan, Rafael Perera, Brian D. Nicholson
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2018
Materias:	Mortality Trends Overdiagnosis Cancer Sites Diagnostic Drift Atypical Endometrial Hyperplasia Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3d5690a7d5fa475782f50eba3a8a5d51
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3d5690a7d5fa475782f50eba3a8a5d512021-12-02T15:08:27ZThe mapping of cancer incidence and mortality trends in the UK from 1980–2013 reveals a potential for overdiagnosis10.1038/s41598-018-32844-x2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/3d5690a7d5fa475782f50eba3a8a5d512018-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-32844-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The incidence of cancer in the United Kingdom has increased significantly over the last four decades. The aim of this study was to examine trends in UK cancer incidence and mortality by cancer site and assess the potential for overdiagnosis. Using Cancer Research UK incidence and mortality data for the period (1971–2014) we estimated percentage change in incidence and mortality rates and the incidence-mortality ratio (IMR) for cancers in which incidence had increased >50%. Incidence and mortality trend plots were used to assess the potential for overdiagnosis. Incidence rates increased from 67% (uterine) to 375% (melanoma). Change in mortality rates ranged from −69% (cervical) to +239% (liver). The greatest divergences occurred in uterine (IMR = 132), prostate (IMR = 9.6), oral (IMR = 9.8) and thyroid cancer (IMR = 5.3). Only in liver cancer did mortality track incidence (IMR = 1.1). For four cancer sites; uterine, prostate, oral and thyroid, incidence and mortality trends are suggestive of overdiagnosis. Trends in melanoma and kidney cancer suggest potential overdiagnosis and an underlying increase in true risk, whereas for cervical and breast cancer, trends may also reflect improvements in treatments or earlier diagnosis. A more detailed analysis is required to fully understand these patterns.Jason L. OkeJack W. O’SullivanRafael PereraBrian D. NicholsonNature PortfolioarticleMortality TrendsOverdiagnosisCancer SitesDiagnostic DriftAtypical Endometrial HyperplasiaMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Mortality Trends Overdiagnosis Cancer Sites Diagnostic Drift Atypical Endometrial Hyperplasia Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Mortality Trends Overdiagnosis Cancer Sites Diagnostic Drift Atypical Endometrial Hyperplasia Medicine R Science Q Jason L. Oke Jack W. O’Sullivan Rafael Perera Brian D. Nicholson The mapping of cancer incidence and mortality trends in the UK from 1980–2013 reveals a potential for overdiagnosis
description	Abstract The incidence of cancer in the United Kingdom has increased significantly over the last four decades. The aim of this study was to examine trends in UK cancer incidence and mortality by cancer site and assess the potential for overdiagnosis. Using Cancer Research UK incidence and mortality data for the period (1971–2014) we estimated percentage change in incidence and mortality rates and the incidence-mortality ratio (IMR) for cancers in which incidence had increased >50%. Incidence and mortality trend plots were used to assess the potential for overdiagnosis. Incidence rates increased from 67% (uterine) to 375% (melanoma). Change in mortality rates ranged from −69% (cervical) to +239% (liver). The greatest divergences occurred in uterine (IMR = 132), prostate (IMR = 9.6), oral (IMR = 9.8) and thyroid cancer (IMR = 5.3). Only in liver cancer did mortality track incidence (IMR = 1.1). For four cancer sites; uterine, prostate, oral and thyroid, incidence and mortality trends are suggestive of overdiagnosis. Trends in melanoma and kidney cancer suggest potential overdiagnosis and an underlying increase in true risk, whereas for cervical and breast cancer, trends may also reflect improvements in treatments or earlier diagnosis. A more detailed analysis is required to fully understand these patterns.
format	article
author	Jason L. Oke Jack W. O’Sullivan Rafael Perera Brian D. Nicholson
author_facet	Jason L. Oke Jack W. O’Sullivan Rafael Perera Brian D. Nicholson
author_sort	Jason L. Oke
title	The mapping of cancer incidence and mortality trends in the UK from 1980–2013 reveals a potential for overdiagnosis
title_short	The mapping of cancer incidence and mortality trends in the UK from 1980–2013 reveals a potential for overdiagnosis
title_full	The mapping of cancer incidence and mortality trends in the UK from 1980–2013 reveals a potential for overdiagnosis
title_fullStr	The mapping of cancer incidence and mortality trends in the UK from 1980–2013 reveals a potential for overdiagnosis
title_full_unstemmed	The mapping of cancer incidence and mortality trends in the UK from 1980–2013 reveals a potential for overdiagnosis
title_sort	mapping of cancer incidence and mortality trends in the uk from 1980–2013 reveals a potential for overdiagnosis
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2018
url	https://doaj.org/article/3d5690a7d5fa475782f50eba3a8a5d51
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The mapping of cancer incidence and mortality trends in the UK from 1980–2013 reveals a potential for overdiagnosis

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