Inter-basin sources for two-year predictability of the multi-year La Niña event in 2010–2012

Abstract Multi-year La Niña events often induce persistent cool and wet climate over global lands, altering and in some case mitigating regional climate warming impacts. The latest event lingered from mid-2010 to early 2012 and brought about intensive precipitation over many land regions of the worl...

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Autores principales:	Jing-Jia Luo, Guoqiang Liu, Harry Hendon, Oscar Alves, Toshio Yamagata
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3e5f32cd799a44d08f8bab82e5eb4a9c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3e5f32cd799a44d08f8bab82e5eb4a9c2021-12-02T16:07:58ZInter-basin sources for two-year predictability of the multi-year La Niña event in 2010–201210.1038/s41598-017-01479-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/3e5f32cd799a44d08f8bab82e5eb4a9c2017-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01479-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Multi-year La Niña events often induce persistent cool and wet climate over global lands, altering and in some case mitigating regional climate warming impacts. The latest event lingered from mid-2010 to early 2012 and brought about intensive precipitation over many land regions of the world, particularly Australia. This resulted in a significant drop in global mean sea level despite the background upwards trend. This La Niña event is surprisingly predicted out to two years ahead in a few coupled models, even though the predictability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation during 2002–2014 has declined owing to weakened ocean-atmosphere interactions. However, the underlying mechanism for high predictability of this multi-year La Niña episode is still unclear. Experiments based on a climate model that demonstrates a successful two-year forecast of the La Niña support the hypothesis that warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans act to intensify the easterly winds in the central equatorial Pacific and largely contribute to the occurrence and two-year predictability of the 2010–2012 La Niña. The results highlight the importance of increased Atlantic-Indian Ocean SSTs for the multi-year La Niña’s predictability under global warming.Jing-Jia LuoGuoqiang LiuHarry HendonOscar AlvesToshio YamagataNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jing-Jia Luo Guoqiang Liu Harry Hendon Oscar Alves Toshio Yamagata Inter-basin sources for two-year predictability of the multi-year La Niña event in 2010–2012
description	Abstract Multi-year La Niña events often induce persistent cool and wet climate over global lands, altering and in some case mitigating regional climate warming impacts. The latest event lingered from mid-2010 to early 2012 and brought about intensive precipitation over many land regions of the world, particularly Australia. This resulted in a significant drop in global mean sea level despite the background upwards trend. This La Niña event is surprisingly predicted out to two years ahead in a few coupled models, even though the predictability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation during 2002–2014 has declined owing to weakened ocean-atmosphere interactions. However, the underlying mechanism for high predictability of this multi-year La Niña episode is still unclear. Experiments based on a climate model that demonstrates a successful two-year forecast of the La Niña support the hypothesis that warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans act to intensify the easterly winds in the central equatorial Pacific and largely contribute to the occurrence and two-year predictability of the 2010–2012 La Niña. The results highlight the importance of increased Atlantic-Indian Ocean SSTs for the multi-year La Niña’s predictability under global warming.
format	article
author	Jing-Jia Luo Guoqiang Liu Harry Hendon Oscar Alves Toshio Yamagata
author_facet	Jing-Jia Luo Guoqiang Liu Harry Hendon Oscar Alves Toshio Yamagata
author_sort	Jing-Jia Luo
title	Inter-basin sources for two-year predictability of the multi-year La Niña event in 2010–2012
title_short	Inter-basin sources for two-year predictability of the multi-year La Niña event in 2010–2012
title_full	Inter-basin sources for two-year predictability of the multi-year La Niña event in 2010–2012
title_fullStr	Inter-basin sources for two-year predictability of the multi-year La Niña event in 2010–2012
title_full_unstemmed	Inter-basin sources for two-year predictability of the multi-year La Niña event in 2010–2012
title_sort	inter-basin sources for two-year predictability of the multi-year la niña event in 2010–2012
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/3e5f32cd799a44d08f8bab82e5eb4a9c
work_keys_str_mv	AT jingjialuo interbasinsourcesfortwoyearpredictabilityofthemultiyearlaninaeventin20102012 AT guoqiangliu interbasinsourcesfortwoyearpredictabilityofthemultiyearlaninaeventin20102012 AT harryhendon interbasinsourcesfortwoyearpredictabilityofthemultiyearlaninaeventin20102012 AT oscaralves interbasinsourcesfortwoyearpredictabilityofthemultiyearlaninaeventin20102012 AT toshioyamagata interbasinsourcesfortwoyearpredictabilityofthemultiyearlaninaeventin20102012
_version_	1718384649662627840

Inter-basin sources for two-year predictability of the multi-year La Niña event in 2010–2012

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