Supply Chain Management and Risk Management in an Environment of Stochastic Uncertainty (Retail)

In the context of stochastic uncertainty and the increasing complexity of logistics processes in the retail sector, managers face a problem in obtaining accurate forecasts for the dynamics of changes in key business performance indicators. The purpose of the present work is to assess the impact of r...

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Autores principales:	Sergey A. Lochan, Tatiana P. Rozanova, Valery V. Bezpalov, Dmitry V. Fedyunin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	risk management supply chain modeling stochastic uncertainty risk event simulation model threats Insurance HG8011-9999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3e7fd15647c04f5d8d7a0b77547b10b0
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:3e7fd15647c04f5d8d7a0b77547b10b0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3e7fd15647c04f5d8d7a0b77547b10b02021-11-25T18:56:08ZSupply Chain Management and Risk Management in an Environment of Stochastic Uncertainty (Retail)10.3390/risks91101972227-9091https://doaj.org/article/3e7fd15647c04f5d8d7a0b77547b10b02021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/11/197https://doaj.org/toc/2227-9091In the context of stochastic uncertainty and the increasing complexity of logistics processes in the retail sector, managers face a problem in obtaining accurate forecasts for the dynamics of changes in key business performance indicators. The purpose of the present work is to assess the impact of risk events and unstable conditions on the level of quality of supply chain services and economic indicators of the retail trade network. Using the anyLogistix software tool, a simulation model was constructed that allows assessing operational risks and their impact on key indicators of the supply chain using the bullwhip effect. Besides, a statistical model of the impact of the ripple effect in the event of failures caused by the occurrence of a man-made risk event and the shutdown of production of one of the suppliers on the financial, customer, and operational performance indicators of the supply chain of grocery retail. The results obtained show that the main factors of changes in the supply chain are operational risks associated with fluctuations in demand and order execution time by the distribution center. With a sufficiently high level of occurrence, their impact on productivity and quality of service is low because they can be eliminated in a short time. The simulation results show that the most tangible risks for the food retail supply chain are supply chain failures, whose consequences require significant coordinating efforts and longer recovery times, as well as additional investments. For example, events, such as a fire in one distribution center and the shutdown of production for 1 week of one of the suppliers of dairy products will lead to the loss of USD 181.75 million by the grocery retailer, which is 3% of the expected revenue. We believe that risk management in supply chains is becoming increasingly complex, and to make effective managerial decisions, it is necessary to constantly improve the tools that combine analytical and optimization methods, as well as simulation modeling.Sergey A. LochanTatiana P. RozanovaValery V. BezpalovDmitry V. FedyuninMDPI AGarticlerisk managementsupply chain modelingstochastic uncertaintyrisk eventsimulation modelthreatsInsuranceHG8011-9999ENRisks, Vol 9, Iss 197, p 197 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	risk management supply chain modeling stochastic uncertainty risk event simulation model threats Insurance HG8011-9999
spellingShingle	risk management supply chain modeling stochastic uncertainty risk event simulation model threats Insurance HG8011-9999 Sergey A. Lochan Tatiana P. Rozanova Valery V. Bezpalov Dmitry V. Fedyunin Supply Chain Management and Risk Management in an Environment of Stochastic Uncertainty (Retail)
description	In the context of stochastic uncertainty and the increasing complexity of logistics processes in the retail sector, managers face a problem in obtaining accurate forecasts for the dynamics of changes in key business performance indicators. The purpose of the present work is to assess the impact of risk events and unstable conditions on the level of quality of supply chain services and economic indicators of the retail trade network. Using the anyLogistix software tool, a simulation model was constructed that allows assessing operational risks and their impact on key indicators of the supply chain using the bullwhip effect. Besides, a statistical model of the impact of the ripple effect in the event of failures caused by the occurrence of a man-made risk event and the shutdown of production of one of the suppliers on the financial, customer, and operational performance indicators of the supply chain of grocery retail. The results obtained show that the main factors of changes in the supply chain are operational risks associated with fluctuations in demand and order execution time by the distribution center. With a sufficiently high level of occurrence, their impact on productivity and quality of service is low because they can be eliminated in a short time. The simulation results show that the most tangible risks for the food retail supply chain are supply chain failures, whose consequences require significant coordinating efforts and longer recovery times, as well as additional investments. For example, events, such as a fire in one distribution center and the shutdown of production for 1 week of one of the suppliers of dairy products will lead to the loss of USD 181.75 million by the grocery retailer, which is 3% of the expected revenue. We believe that risk management in supply chains is becoming increasingly complex, and to make effective managerial decisions, it is necessary to constantly improve the tools that combine analytical and optimization methods, as well as simulation modeling.
format	article
author	Sergey A. Lochan Tatiana P. Rozanova Valery V. Bezpalov Dmitry V. Fedyunin
author_facet	Sergey A. Lochan Tatiana P. Rozanova Valery V. Bezpalov Dmitry V. Fedyunin
author_sort	Sergey A. Lochan
title	Supply Chain Management and Risk Management in an Environment of Stochastic Uncertainty (Retail)
title_short	Supply Chain Management and Risk Management in an Environment of Stochastic Uncertainty (Retail)
title_full	Supply Chain Management and Risk Management in an Environment of Stochastic Uncertainty (Retail)
title_fullStr	Supply Chain Management and Risk Management in an Environment of Stochastic Uncertainty (Retail)
title_full_unstemmed	Supply Chain Management and Risk Management in an Environment of Stochastic Uncertainty (Retail)
title_sort	supply chain management and risk management in an environment of stochastic uncertainty (retail)
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/3e7fd15647c04f5d8d7a0b77547b10b0
work_keys_str_mv	AT sergeyalochan supplychainmanagementandriskmanagementinanenvironmentofstochasticuncertaintyretail AT tatianaprozanova supplychainmanagementandriskmanagementinanenvironmentofstochasticuncertaintyretail AT valeryvbezpalov supplychainmanagementandriskmanagementinanenvironmentofstochasticuncertaintyretail AT dmitryvfedyunin supplychainmanagementandriskmanagementinanenvironmentofstochasticuncertaintyretail
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Supply Chain Management and Risk Management in an Environment of Stochastic Uncertainty (Retail)

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