Seasonality of confirmed malaria cases from 2008 to 2017 in Togo: a time series analysis by health district and target group

Abstract Background This study aimed to assess the seasonality of confirmed malaria cases in Togo and to provide new indicators of malaria seasonality to the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP). Methods Aggregated data of confirmed malaria cases were collected monthly from 2008 to 2017 by the...

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Autores principales:	Anne Thomas, Tchaa A. Bakai, Tinah Atcha-Oubou, Tchassama Tchadjobo, Nadine Bossard, Muriel Rabilloud, Nicolas Voirin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	BMC 2021
Materias:	Seasonality Malaria Seasonal-trend decomposition National Malaria Control Programme Togo Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3f4790434ee143589c39e3ca474d86ac
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3f4790434ee143589c39e3ca474d86ac2021-11-28T12:41:34ZSeasonality of confirmed malaria cases from 2008 to 2017 in Togo: a time series analysis by health district and target group10.1186/s12879-021-06893-z1471-2334https://doaj.org/article/3f4790434ee143589c39e3ca474d86ac2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06893-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/1471-2334Abstract Background This study aimed to assess the seasonality of confirmed malaria cases in Togo and to provide new indicators of malaria seasonality to the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP). Methods Aggregated data of confirmed malaria cases were collected monthly from 2008 to 2017 by the Togo’s NMCP and stratified by health district and according to three target groups: children < 5 years old, children ≥ 5 years old and adults, and pregnant women. Time series analysis was carried out for each target group and health district. Seasonal decomposition was used to assess the seasonality of confirmed malaria cases. Maximum and minimum seasonal indices, their corresponding months, and the ratio of maximum/minimum seasonal indices reflecting the importance of malaria transmission, were provided by health district and target group. Results From 2008 to 2017, 7,951,757 malaria cases were reported in Togo. Children < 5 years old, children ≥ 5 years old and adults, and pregnant women represented 37.1%, 57.7% and 5.2% of the confirmed malaria cases, respectively. The maximum seasonal indices were observed during or shortly after a rainy season and the minimum seasonal indices during the dry season between January and April in particular. In children < 5 years old, the ratio of maximum/minimum seasonal indices was higher in the north, suggesting a higher seasonal malaria transmission, than in the south of Togo. This is also observed in the other two groups but to a lesser extent. Conclusions This study contributes to a better understanding of malaria seasonality in Togo. The indicators of malaria seasonality could allow for more accurate forecasting in malaria interventions and supply planning throughout the year.Anne ThomasTchaa A. BakaiTinah Atcha-OubouTchassama TchadjoboNadine BossardMuriel RabilloudNicolas VoirinBMCarticleSeasonalityMalariaSeasonal-trend decompositionNational Malaria Control ProgrammeTogoInfectious and parasitic diseasesRC109-216ENBMC Infectious Diseases, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Seasonality Malaria Seasonal-trend decomposition National Malaria Control Programme Togo Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
spellingShingle	Seasonality Malaria Seasonal-trend decomposition National Malaria Control Programme Togo Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Anne Thomas Tchaa A. Bakai Tinah Atcha-Oubou Tchassama Tchadjobo Nadine Bossard Muriel Rabilloud Nicolas Voirin Seasonality of confirmed malaria cases from 2008 to 2017 in Togo: a time series analysis by health district and target group
description	Abstract Background This study aimed to assess the seasonality of confirmed malaria cases in Togo and to provide new indicators of malaria seasonality to the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP). Methods Aggregated data of confirmed malaria cases were collected monthly from 2008 to 2017 by the Togo’s NMCP and stratified by health district and according to three target groups: children < 5 years old, children ≥ 5 years old and adults, and pregnant women. Time series analysis was carried out for each target group and health district. Seasonal decomposition was used to assess the seasonality of confirmed malaria cases. Maximum and minimum seasonal indices, their corresponding months, and the ratio of maximum/minimum seasonal indices reflecting the importance of malaria transmission, were provided by health district and target group. Results From 2008 to 2017, 7,951,757 malaria cases were reported in Togo. Children < 5 years old, children ≥ 5 years old and adults, and pregnant women represented 37.1%, 57.7% and 5.2% of the confirmed malaria cases, respectively. The maximum seasonal indices were observed during or shortly after a rainy season and the minimum seasonal indices during the dry season between January and April in particular. In children < 5 years old, the ratio of maximum/minimum seasonal indices was higher in the north, suggesting a higher seasonal malaria transmission, than in the south of Togo. This is also observed in the other two groups but to a lesser extent. Conclusions This study contributes to a better understanding of malaria seasonality in Togo. The indicators of malaria seasonality could allow for more accurate forecasting in malaria interventions and supply planning throughout the year.
format	article
author	Anne Thomas Tchaa A. Bakai Tinah Atcha-Oubou Tchassama Tchadjobo Nadine Bossard Muriel Rabilloud Nicolas Voirin
author_facet	Anne Thomas Tchaa A. Bakai Tinah Atcha-Oubou Tchassama Tchadjobo Nadine Bossard Muriel Rabilloud Nicolas Voirin
author_sort	Anne Thomas
title	Seasonality of confirmed malaria cases from 2008 to 2017 in Togo: a time series analysis by health district and target group
title_short	Seasonality of confirmed malaria cases from 2008 to 2017 in Togo: a time series analysis by health district and target group
title_full	Seasonality of confirmed malaria cases from 2008 to 2017 in Togo: a time series analysis by health district and target group
title_fullStr	Seasonality of confirmed malaria cases from 2008 to 2017 in Togo: a time series analysis by health district and target group
title_full_unstemmed	Seasonality of confirmed malaria cases from 2008 to 2017 in Togo: a time series analysis by health district and target group
title_sort	seasonality of confirmed malaria cases from 2008 to 2017 in togo: a time series analysis by health district and target group
publisher	BMC
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/3f4790434ee143589c39e3ca474d86ac
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Seasonality of confirmed malaria cases from 2008 to 2017 in Togo: a time series analysis by health district and target group

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