Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on future glacial cycles

We propose a reduced-complexity process-based model for the long-term evolution of the global ice volume, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and global mean temperature. The model's only external forcings are...

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Autores principales:	S. Talento, A. Ganopolski
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Copernicus Publications 2021
Materias:	Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4001f09c820144598aaa5330888a4b3c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4001f09c820144598aaa5330888a4b3c2021-11-26T09:47:13ZReduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions on future glacial cycles10.5194/esd-12-1275-20212190-49792190-4987https://doaj.org/article/4001f09c820144598aaa5330888a4b3c2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/1275/2021/esd-12-1275-2021.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987<p>We propose a reduced-complexity process-based model for the long-term evolution of the global ice volume, atmospheric CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> concentration, and global mean temperature. The model's only external forcings are the orbital forcing and anthropogenic CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> cumulative emissions. The model consists of a system of three coupled non-linear differential equations representing physical mechanisms relevant for the evolution of the climate–ice sheet–carbon cycle system on timescales longer than thousands of years. Model parameters are calibrated using paleoclimate reconstructions and the results of two Earth system models of intermediate complexity. For a range of parameters values, the model is successful in reproducing the glacial–interglacial cycles of the last 800 kyr, with the best correlation between modelled and global paleo-ice volume of 0.86. Using different model realisations, we produce an assessment of possible trajectories for the next 1 million years under natural and several fossil-fuel CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> release scenarios. In the natural scenario, the model assigns high probability of occurrence of long interglacials in the periods between the present and 120 kyr after present and between 400 and 500 kyr after present. The next glacial inception is most likely to occur <span class="inline-formula">∼50</span> kyr after present with full glacial conditions developing <span class="inline-formula">∼90</span> kyr after present. The model shows that even already achieved cumulative CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> anthropogenic emissions (500 Pg C) are capable of affecting the climate evolution for up to half a million years, indicating that the beginning of the next glaciation is highly unlikely in the next 120 kyr. High cumulative anthropogenic CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> emissions (3000 Pg C or higher), which could potentially be achieved in the next 2 to 3 centuries if humanity does not curb the usage of fossil fuels, will most likely provoke Northern Hemisphere landmass ice-free conditions throughout the next half a million years, postponing the natural occurrence of the next glacial inception to 600 kyr after present or later.</p>S. TalentoA. GanopolskiCopernicus PublicationsarticleScienceQGeologyQE1-996.5Dynamic and structural geologyQE500-639.5ENEarth System Dynamics, Vol 12, Pp 1275-1293 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5
spellingShingle	Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 S. Talento A. Ganopolski Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions on future glacial cycles
description	<p>We propose a reduced-complexity process-based model for the long-term evolution of the global ice volume, atmospheric CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> concentration, and global mean temperature. The model's only external forcings are the orbital forcing and anthropogenic CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> cumulative emissions. The model consists of a system of three coupled non-linear differential equations representing physical mechanisms relevant for the evolution of the climate–ice sheet–carbon cycle system on timescales longer than thousands of years. Model parameters are calibrated using paleoclimate reconstructions and the results of two Earth system models of intermediate complexity. For a range of parameters values, the model is successful in reproducing the glacial–interglacial cycles of the last 800 kyr, with the best correlation between modelled and global paleo-ice volume of 0.86. Using different model realisations, we produce an assessment of possible trajectories for the next 1 million years under natural and several fossil-fuel CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> release scenarios. In the natural scenario, the model assigns high probability of occurrence of long interglacials in the periods between the present and 120 kyr after present and between 400 and 500 kyr after present. The next glacial inception is most likely to occur <span class="inline-formula">∼50</span> kyr after present with full glacial conditions developing <span class="inline-formula">∼90</span> kyr after present. The model shows that even already achieved cumulative CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> anthropogenic emissions (500 Pg C) are capable of affecting the climate evolution for up to half a million years, indicating that the beginning of the next glaciation is highly unlikely in the next 120 kyr. High cumulative anthropogenic CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> emissions (3000 Pg C or higher), which could potentially be achieved in the next 2 to 3 centuries if humanity does not curb the usage of fossil fuels, will most likely provoke Northern Hemisphere landmass ice-free conditions throughout the next half a million years, postponing the natural occurrence of the next glacial inception to 600 kyr after present or later.</p>
format	article
author	S. Talento A. Ganopolski
author_facet	S. Talento A. Ganopolski
author_sort	S. Talento
title	Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions on future glacial cycles
title_short	Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions on future glacial cycles
title_full	Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions on future glacial cycles
title_fullStr	Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions on future glacial cycles
title_full_unstemmed	Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions on future glacial cycles
title_sort	reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic co<sub>2</sub> emissions on future glacial cycles
publisher	Copernicus Publications
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4001f09c820144598aaa5330888a4b3c
work_keys_str_mv	AT stalento reducedcomplexitymodelfortheimpactofanthropogeniccosub2subemissionsonfutureglacialcycles AT aganopolski reducedcomplexitymodelfortheimpactofanthropogeniccosub2subemissionsonfutureglacialcycles
_version_	1718409651850051584

Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions on future glacial cycles

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