Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s

Maize, rice, and wheat are the major staple food crops in China and are crucial components of national food security and economic development. The cultivation and production of these crops are expected to be affected by climate change and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and...

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Autores principales:	Yajie Zhang, Haishan Niu, Qiang Yu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Yield change Climate change Atmospheric CO2 concentration Suitable planting area China Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/405279c8743d449997d8fc85631de2b9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:405279c8743d449997d8fc85631de2b92021-12-01T04:48:44ZImpacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107588https://doaj.org/article/405279c8743d449997d8fc85631de2b92021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21002533https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XMaize, rice, and wheat are the major staple food crops in China and are crucial components of national food security and economic development. The cultivation and production of these crops are expected to be affected by climate change and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and have drawn considerable public attention. The objective of this experiment was to understand the impact of future climate change (including increased temperature and changed precipitation patterns) and elevated CO2 concentration on variations of crop yields in their suitable planting areas. We conducted a spatial grid-based analysis of maize, rice, and wheat yields using projections of future climate generated by a multi-model ensemble of global climate models for three representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in suitable planting areas in China for the 2030s (2021–2040) and the 2050s (2041–2060). Suitable areas for the planting of maize, rice, and wheat under the high-emission scenarios migrated slightly northward over time. Yield of all three crops would be expected to remain stable or to slightly increase across China in the future. A possible reason for this result may be because the positive effects of increased precipitation and CO2 offset the negative effect of increased temperature on crop yields, resulting in a much more appropriate growth environment and increased biomass accumulation and crop yield. In addition, this study also indicated that changes in crop yields were mainly driven by temperature and CO2 factors. The potential effects of climate change and elevated CO2 concentration on migration of planting areas and yield fluctuations for crops should be given greater attention in the future.Yajie ZhangHaishan NiuQiang YuElsevierarticleYield changeClimate changeAtmospheric CO2 concentrationSuitable planting areaChinaEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 125, Iss , Pp 107588- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Yield change Climate change Atmospheric CO2 concentration Suitable planting area China Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Yield change Climate change Atmospheric CO2 concentration Suitable planting area China Ecology QH540-549.5 Yajie Zhang Haishan Niu Qiang Yu Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s
description	Maize, rice, and wheat are the major staple food crops in China and are crucial components of national food security and economic development. The cultivation and production of these crops are expected to be affected by climate change and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and have drawn considerable public attention. The objective of this experiment was to understand the impact of future climate change (including increased temperature and changed precipitation patterns) and elevated CO2 concentration on variations of crop yields in their suitable planting areas. We conducted a spatial grid-based analysis of maize, rice, and wheat yields using projections of future climate generated by a multi-model ensemble of global climate models for three representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in suitable planting areas in China for the 2030s (2021–2040) and the 2050s (2041–2060). Suitable areas for the planting of maize, rice, and wheat under the high-emission scenarios migrated slightly northward over time. Yield of all three crops would be expected to remain stable or to slightly increase across China in the future. A possible reason for this result may be because the positive effects of increased precipitation and CO2 offset the negative effect of increased temperature on crop yields, resulting in a much more appropriate growth environment and increased biomass accumulation and crop yield. In addition, this study also indicated that changes in crop yields were mainly driven by temperature and CO2 factors. The potential effects of climate change and elevated CO2 concentration on migration of planting areas and yield fluctuations for crops should be given greater attention in the future.
format	article
author	Yajie Zhang Haishan Niu Qiang Yu
author_facet	Yajie Zhang Haishan Niu Qiang Yu
author_sort	Yajie Zhang
title	Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s
title_short	Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s
title_full	Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s
title_fullStr	Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s
title_full_unstemmed	Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s
title_sort	impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in china by the 2050s
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/405279c8743d449997d8fc85631de2b9
work_keys_str_mv	AT yajiezhang impactsofclimatechangeandincreasingcarbondioxidelevelsonyieldchangesofmajorcropsinsuitableplantingareasinchinabythe2050s AT haishanniu impactsofclimatechangeandincreasingcarbondioxidelevelsonyieldchangesofmajorcropsinsuitableplantingareasinchinabythe2050s AT qiangyu impactsofclimatechangeandincreasingcarbondioxidelevelsonyieldchangesofmajorcropsinsuitableplantingareasinchinabythe2050s
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Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s

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