Future increase in elderly heat-related mortality of a rapidly growing Asian megacity

Abstract Urban dwellers are at risk of heat-related mortality in the onset of climate change. In this study, future changes in heat-related mortality of elderly citizens were estimated while considering the combined effects of spatially-varying megacity’s population growth, urbanization, and climate...

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Autores principales:	Alvin Christopher G. Varquez, Nisrina S. Darmanto, Yasushi Honda, Tomohiko Ihara, Manabu Kanda
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2020
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/40c9171431014b709877dc454c45afe5
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:40c9171431014b709877dc454c45afe52021-12-02T17:52:33ZFuture increase in elderly heat-related mortality of a rapidly growing Asian megacity10.1038/s41598-020-66288-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/40c9171431014b709877dc454c45afe52020-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-66288-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Urban dwellers are at risk of heat-related mortality in the onset of climate change. In this study, future changes in heat-related mortality of elderly citizens were estimated while considering the combined effects of spatially-varying megacity’s population growth, urbanization, and climate change. The target area is the Jakarta metropolitan area of Indonesia, a rapidly developing tropical country. 1.2 × 1.2 km2 daily maximum temperatures were acquired from weather model outputs for the August months from 2006 to 2015 (present 2010s) and 2046 to 2055 (future 2050s considering pseudo-global warming of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The weather model considers population-induced spatial changes in urban morphology and anthropogenic heating distribution. Present and future heat-related mortality was mapped out based on the simulated daily maximum temperatures. The August total number of heat-related elderly deaths in Jakarta will drastically increase by 12~15 times in the 2050s compared to 2010s because of population aging and rising daytime temperatures under “compact city” and “business-as-usual” scenarios. Meanwhile, mitigating climate change (RCP 2.6) could reduce the August elderly mortality count by up to 17.34%. The downwind areas of the densest city core and the coastal areas of Jakarta should be avoided by elderly citizens during the daytime.Alvin Christopher G. VarquezNisrina S. DarmantoYasushi HondaTomohiko IharaManabu KandaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Alvin Christopher G. Varquez Nisrina S. Darmanto Yasushi Honda Tomohiko Ihara Manabu Kanda Future increase in elderly heat-related mortality of a rapidly growing Asian megacity
description	Abstract Urban dwellers are at risk of heat-related mortality in the onset of climate change. In this study, future changes in heat-related mortality of elderly citizens were estimated while considering the combined effects of spatially-varying megacity’s population growth, urbanization, and climate change. The target area is the Jakarta metropolitan area of Indonesia, a rapidly developing tropical country. 1.2 × 1.2 km2 daily maximum temperatures were acquired from weather model outputs for the August months from 2006 to 2015 (present 2010s) and 2046 to 2055 (future 2050s considering pseudo-global warming of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The weather model considers population-induced spatial changes in urban morphology and anthropogenic heating distribution. Present and future heat-related mortality was mapped out based on the simulated daily maximum temperatures. The August total number of heat-related elderly deaths in Jakarta will drastically increase by 12~15 times in the 2050s compared to 2010s because of population aging and rising daytime temperatures under “compact city” and “business-as-usual” scenarios. Meanwhile, mitigating climate change (RCP 2.6) could reduce the August elderly mortality count by up to 17.34%. The downwind areas of the densest city core and the coastal areas of Jakarta should be avoided by elderly citizens during the daytime.
format	article
author	Alvin Christopher G. Varquez Nisrina S. Darmanto Yasushi Honda Tomohiko Ihara Manabu Kanda
author_facet	Alvin Christopher G. Varquez Nisrina S. Darmanto Yasushi Honda Tomohiko Ihara Manabu Kanda
author_sort	Alvin Christopher G. Varquez
title	Future increase in elderly heat-related mortality of a rapidly growing Asian megacity
title_short	Future increase in elderly heat-related mortality of a rapidly growing Asian megacity
title_full	Future increase in elderly heat-related mortality of a rapidly growing Asian megacity
title_fullStr	Future increase in elderly heat-related mortality of a rapidly growing Asian megacity
title_full_unstemmed	Future increase in elderly heat-related mortality of a rapidly growing Asian megacity
title_sort	future increase in elderly heat-related mortality of a rapidly growing asian megacity
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/40c9171431014b709877dc454c45afe5
work_keys_str_mv	AT alvinchristophergvarquez futureincreaseinelderlyheatrelatedmortalityofarapidlygrowingasianmegacity AT nisrinasdarmanto futureincreaseinelderlyheatrelatedmortalityofarapidlygrowingasianmegacity AT yasushihonda futureincreaseinelderlyheatrelatedmortalityofarapidlygrowingasianmegacity AT tomohikoihara futureincreaseinelderlyheatrelatedmortalityofarapidlygrowingasianmegacity AT manabukanda futureincreaseinelderlyheatrelatedmortalityofarapidlygrowingasianmegacity
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Future increase in elderly heat-related mortality of a rapidly growing Asian megacity

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