Accounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.

Assessments of population trends based on time-series counts of individuals are complicated by imperfect detection, which can lead to serious misinterpretations of data. Population trends of threatened marine turtles worldwide are usually based on counts of nests or nesting females. We analyze 39 ye...

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Autores principales:	Joseph B Pfaller, Karen A Bjorndal, Milani Chaloupka, Kristina L Williams, Michael G Frick, Alan B Bolten
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/410691ccce594c309ae65077d1f9b4ff
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:410691ccce594c309ae65077d1f9b4ff2021-11-18T07:47:58ZAccounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0062326https://doaj.org/article/410691ccce594c309ae65077d1f9b4ff2013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23638041/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Assessments of population trends based on time-series counts of individuals are complicated by imperfect detection, which can lead to serious misinterpretations of data. Population trends of threatened marine turtles worldwide are usually based on counts of nests or nesting females. We analyze 39 years of nest-count, female-count, and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data for nesting loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) on Wassaw Island, Georgia, USA. Annual counts of nests and females, not corrected for imperfect detection, yield significant, positive trends in abundance. However, multistate open robust design modeling of CMR data that accounts for changes in imperfect detection reveals that the annual abundance of nesting females has remained essentially constant over the 39-year period. The dichotomy could result from improvements in surveys or increased within-season nest-site fidelity in females, either of which would increase detection probability. For the first time in a marine turtle population, we compare results of population trend analyses that do and do not account for imperfect detection and demonstrate the potential for erroneous conclusions. Past assessments of marine turtle population trends based exclusively on count data should be interpreted with caution and re-evaluated when possible. These concerns apply equally to population assessments of all species with imperfect detection.Joseph B PfallerKaren A BjorndalMilani ChaloupkaKristina L WilliamsMichael G FrickAlan B BoltenPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 4, p e62326 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Joseph B Pfaller Karen A Bjorndal Milani Chaloupka Kristina L Williams Michael G Frick Alan B Bolten Accounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.
description	Assessments of population trends based on time-series counts of individuals are complicated by imperfect detection, which can lead to serious misinterpretations of data. Population trends of threatened marine turtles worldwide are usually based on counts of nests or nesting females. We analyze 39 years of nest-count, female-count, and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data for nesting loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) on Wassaw Island, Georgia, USA. Annual counts of nests and females, not corrected for imperfect detection, yield significant, positive trends in abundance. However, multistate open robust design modeling of CMR data that accounts for changes in imperfect detection reveals that the annual abundance of nesting females has remained essentially constant over the 39-year period. The dichotomy could result from improvements in surveys or increased within-season nest-site fidelity in females, either of which would increase detection probability. For the first time in a marine turtle population, we compare results of population trend analyses that do and do not account for imperfect detection and demonstrate the potential for erroneous conclusions. Past assessments of marine turtle population trends based exclusively on count data should be interpreted with caution and re-evaluated when possible. These concerns apply equally to population assessments of all species with imperfect detection.
format	article
author	Joseph B Pfaller Karen A Bjorndal Milani Chaloupka Kristina L Williams Michael G Frick Alan B Bolten
author_facet	Joseph B Pfaller Karen A Bjorndal Milani Chaloupka Kristina L Williams Michael G Frick Alan B Bolten
author_sort	Joseph B Pfaller
title	Accounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.
title_short	Accounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.
title_full	Accounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.
title_fullStr	Accounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.
title_full_unstemmed	Accounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.
title_sort	accounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/410691ccce594c309ae65077d1f9b4ff
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Accounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.

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