Generalized radiation model for human migration

Abstract One of the main problems in the study of human migration is predicting how many people will migrate from one place to another. An important model used for this problem is the radiation model for human migration, which models locations as attractors whose attractiveness is moderated by dista...

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Autores principales:	Christian Alis, Erika Fille Legara, Christopher Monterola
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4109cc6711224d32a790a955792e0cb1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4109cc6711224d32a790a955792e0cb12021-11-28T12:20:27ZGeneralized radiation model for human migration10.1038/s41598-021-02109-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/4109cc6711224d32a790a955792e0cb12021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-02109-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract One of the main problems in the study of human migration is predicting how many people will migrate from one place to another. An important model used for this problem is the radiation model for human migration, which models locations as attractors whose attractiveness is moderated by distance as well as attractiveness of neighboring locations. In the model, the measure used for attractiveness is population which is a proxy for economic opportunities and jobs. However, this may not be valid, for example, in developing countries, and fails to take into account people migrating for non-economic reasons such as quality of life. Here, we extend the radiation model to include the number of amenities (offices, schools, leisure places, etc.) as features aside from population. We find that the generalized radiation model outperforms the radiation model by as much as 10.3% relative improvement in mean absolute percentage error based on actual census data five years apart. The best performing model does not even include population information which suggests that amenities already include the information that we get from population. The generalized radiation model provides a measure of feature importance thus presenting another avenue for investigating the effect of amenities on human migration.Christian AlisErika Fille LegaraChristopher MonterolaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Christian Alis Erika Fille Legara Christopher Monterola Generalized radiation model for human migration
description	Abstract One of the main problems in the study of human migration is predicting how many people will migrate from one place to another. An important model used for this problem is the radiation model for human migration, which models locations as attractors whose attractiveness is moderated by distance as well as attractiveness of neighboring locations. In the model, the measure used for attractiveness is population which is a proxy for economic opportunities and jobs. However, this may not be valid, for example, in developing countries, and fails to take into account people migrating for non-economic reasons such as quality of life. Here, we extend the radiation model to include the number of amenities (offices, schools, leisure places, etc.) as features aside from population. We find that the generalized radiation model outperforms the radiation model by as much as 10.3% relative improvement in mean absolute percentage error based on actual census data five years apart. The best performing model does not even include population information which suggests that amenities already include the information that we get from population. The generalized radiation model provides a measure of feature importance thus presenting another avenue for investigating the effect of amenities on human migration.
format	article
author	Christian Alis Erika Fille Legara Christopher Monterola
author_facet	Christian Alis Erika Fille Legara Christopher Monterola
author_sort	Christian Alis
title	Generalized radiation model for human migration
title_short	Generalized radiation model for human migration
title_full	Generalized radiation model for human migration
title_fullStr	Generalized radiation model for human migration
title_full_unstemmed	Generalized radiation model for human migration
title_sort	generalized radiation model for human migration
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/4109cc6711224d32a790a955792e0cb1
work_keys_str_mv	AT christianalis generalizedradiationmodelforhumanmigration AT erikafillelegara generalizedradiationmodelforhumanmigration AT christophermonterola generalizedradiationmodelforhumanmigration
_version_	1718408007501479936

Generalized radiation model for human migration

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