Shortcomings of vitamin D-based model simulations of seasonal influenza.

Seasonal variation in serum concentration of the vitamin D metabolite 25(OH) vitamin D [25(OH)D], which contributes to host immune function, has been hypothesized to be the underlying source of observed influenza seasonality in temperate regions. The objective of this study was to determine whether...

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Autores principales:	Jeffrey Shaman, Christie Y Jeon, Edward Giovannucci, Marc Lipsitch
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2011
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4140f1313e544edaad86cac0faaa11a4
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4140f1313e544edaad86cac0faaa11a42021-11-18T06:52:37ZShortcomings of vitamin D-based model simulations of seasonal influenza.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0020743https://doaj.org/article/4140f1313e544edaad86cac0faaa11a42011-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/21677774/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Seasonal variation in serum concentration of the vitamin D metabolite 25(OH) vitamin D [25(OH)D], which contributes to host immune function, has been hypothesized to be the underlying source of observed influenza seasonality in temperate regions. The objective of this study was to determine whether observed 25(OH)D levels could be used to simulate observed influenza infection rates. Data of mean and variance in 25(OH)D serum levels by month were obtained from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and used to parameterize an individual-based model of influenza transmission dynamics in two regions of the United States. Simulations were compared with observed daily influenza excess mortality data. Best-fitting simulations could reproduce the observed seasonal cycle of influenza; however, these best-fit simulations were shown to be highly sensitive to stochastic processes within the model and were unable consistently to reproduce observed seasonal patterns. In this respect the simulations with the vitamin D forced model were inferior to similar modeling efforts using absolute humidity and the school calendar as seasonal forcing variables. These model results indicate it is unlikely that seasonal variations in vitamin D levels principally determine the seasonality of influenza in temperate regions.Jeffrey ShamanChristie Y JeonEdward GiovannucciMarc LipsitchPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 6, Iss 6, p e20743 (2011)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jeffrey Shaman Christie Y Jeon Edward Giovannucci Marc Lipsitch Shortcomings of vitamin D-based model simulations of seasonal influenza.
description	Seasonal variation in serum concentration of the vitamin D metabolite 25(OH) vitamin D [25(OH)D], which contributes to host immune function, has been hypothesized to be the underlying source of observed influenza seasonality in temperate regions. The objective of this study was to determine whether observed 25(OH)D levels could be used to simulate observed influenza infection rates. Data of mean and variance in 25(OH)D serum levels by month were obtained from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and used to parameterize an individual-based model of influenza transmission dynamics in two regions of the United States. Simulations were compared with observed daily influenza excess mortality data. Best-fitting simulations could reproduce the observed seasonal cycle of influenza; however, these best-fit simulations were shown to be highly sensitive to stochastic processes within the model and were unable consistently to reproduce observed seasonal patterns. In this respect the simulations with the vitamin D forced model were inferior to similar modeling efforts using absolute humidity and the school calendar as seasonal forcing variables. These model results indicate it is unlikely that seasonal variations in vitamin D levels principally determine the seasonality of influenza in temperate regions.
format	article
author	Jeffrey Shaman Christie Y Jeon Edward Giovannucci Marc Lipsitch
author_facet	Jeffrey Shaman Christie Y Jeon Edward Giovannucci Marc Lipsitch
author_sort	Jeffrey Shaman
title	Shortcomings of vitamin D-based model simulations of seasonal influenza.
title_short	Shortcomings of vitamin D-based model simulations of seasonal influenza.
title_full	Shortcomings of vitamin D-based model simulations of seasonal influenza.
title_fullStr	Shortcomings of vitamin D-based model simulations of seasonal influenza.
title_full_unstemmed	Shortcomings of vitamin D-based model simulations of seasonal influenza.
title_sort	shortcomings of vitamin d-based model simulations of seasonal influenza.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2011
url	https://doaj.org/article/4140f1313e544edaad86cac0faaa11a4
work_keys_str_mv	AT jeffreyshaman shortcomingsofvitamindbasedmodelsimulationsofseasonalinfluenza AT christieyjeon shortcomingsofvitamindbasedmodelsimulationsofseasonalinfluenza AT edwardgiovannucci shortcomingsofvitamindbasedmodelsimulationsofseasonalinfluenza AT marclipsitch shortcomingsofvitamindbasedmodelsimulationsofseasonalinfluenza
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Shortcomings of vitamin D-based model simulations of seasonal influenza.

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