Endogenous social distancing and its underappreciated impact on the epidemic curve

Abstract Social distancing is an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of infectious diseases. If sick or healthy, or both, predominantly socially distance, the epidemic curve flattens. Contact reductions may occur for different reasons during a pandemic including health-related mobility loss (s...

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Autores principales:	Marko Gosak, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Heinrich H. Nax, Matjaž Perc, Bary S. R. Pradelski
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/41c275acd05b4e8a8403fbad58818337
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:41c275acd05b4e8a8403fbad588183372021-12-02T14:06:49ZEndogenous social distancing and its underappreciated impact on the epidemic curve10.1038/s41598-021-82770-82045-2322https://doaj.org/article/41c275acd05b4e8a8403fbad588183372021-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-82770-8https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Social distancing is an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of infectious diseases. If sick or healthy, or both, predominantly socially distance, the epidemic curve flattens. Contact reductions may occur for different reasons during a pandemic including health-related mobility loss (severity of symptoms), duty of care for a member of a high-risk group, and forced quarantine. Other decisions to reduce contacts are of a more voluntary nature. In particular, sick people reduce contacts consciously to avoid infecting others, and healthy individuals reduce contacts in order to stay healthy. We use game theory to formalize the interaction of voluntary social distancing in a partially infected population. This improves the behavioral micro-foundations of epidemiological models, and predicts differential social distancing rates dependent on health status. The model’s key predictions in terms of comparative statics are derived, which concern changes and interactions between social distancing behaviors of sick and healthy. We fit the relevant parameters for endogenous social distancing to an epidemiological model with evidence from influenza waves to provide a benchmark for an epidemic curve with endogenous social distancing. Our results suggest that spreading similar in peak and case numbers to what partial immobilization of the population produces, yet quicker to pass, could occur endogenously. Going forward, eventual social distancing orders and lockdown policies should be benchmarked against more realistic epidemic models that take endogenous social distancing into account, rather than be driven by static, and therefore unrealistic, estimates for social mixing that intrinsically overestimate spreading.Marko GosakMoritz U. G. KraemerHeinrich H. NaxMatjaž PercBary S. R. PradelskiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Marko Gosak Moritz U. G. Kraemer Heinrich H. Nax Matjaž Perc Bary S. R. Pradelski Endogenous social distancing and its underappreciated impact on the epidemic curve
description	Abstract Social distancing is an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of infectious diseases. If sick or healthy, or both, predominantly socially distance, the epidemic curve flattens. Contact reductions may occur for different reasons during a pandemic including health-related mobility loss (severity of symptoms), duty of care for a member of a high-risk group, and forced quarantine. Other decisions to reduce contacts are of a more voluntary nature. In particular, sick people reduce contacts consciously to avoid infecting others, and healthy individuals reduce contacts in order to stay healthy. We use game theory to formalize the interaction of voluntary social distancing in a partially infected population. This improves the behavioral micro-foundations of epidemiological models, and predicts differential social distancing rates dependent on health status. The model’s key predictions in terms of comparative statics are derived, which concern changes and interactions between social distancing behaviors of sick and healthy. We fit the relevant parameters for endogenous social distancing to an epidemiological model with evidence from influenza waves to provide a benchmark for an epidemic curve with endogenous social distancing. Our results suggest that spreading similar in peak and case numbers to what partial immobilization of the population produces, yet quicker to pass, could occur endogenously. Going forward, eventual social distancing orders and lockdown policies should be benchmarked against more realistic epidemic models that take endogenous social distancing into account, rather than be driven by static, and therefore unrealistic, estimates for social mixing that intrinsically overestimate spreading.
format	article
author	Marko Gosak Moritz U. G. Kraemer Heinrich H. Nax Matjaž Perc Bary S. R. Pradelski
author_facet	Marko Gosak Moritz U. G. Kraemer Heinrich H. Nax Matjaž Perc Bary S. R. Pradelski
author_sort	Marko Gosak
title	Endogenous social distancing and its underappreciated impact on the epidemic curve
title_short	Endogenous social distancing and its underappreciated impact on the epidemic curve
title_full	Endogenous social distancing and its underappreciated impact on the epidemic curve
title_fullStr	Endogenous social distancing and its underappreciated impact on the epidemic curve
title_full_unstemmed	Endogenous social distancing and its underappreciated impact on the epidemic curve
title_sort	endogenous social distancing and its underappreciated impact on the epidemic curve
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/41c275acd05b4e8a8403fbad58818337
work_keys_str_mv	AT markogosak endogenoussocialdistancinganditsunderappreciatedimpactontheepidemiccurve AT moritzugkraemer endogenoussocialdistancinganditsunderappreciatedimpactontheepidemiccurve AT heinrichhnax endogenoussocialdistancinganditsunderappreciatedimpactontheepidemiccurve AT matjazperc endogenoussocialdistancinganditsunderappreciatedimpactontheepidemiccurve AT barysrpradelski endogenoussocialdistancinganditsunderappreciatedimpactontheepidemiccurve
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Endogenous social distancing and its underappreciated impact on the epidemic curve

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