Estimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections

Ensemble projections of future changes in discharge over Europe show large variation. Several methods for performance-based weighting exist that have the potential to increase the robustness of the change signal. Here we use future projections of an ensemble of three hydrological models forced with...

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Autores principales:	Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Robrecht D. Visser, Peter Greve, Berny Bisselink, Lukas Brunner, Albrecht H. Weerts
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	ensemble projections performance-based weighting EURO-CORDEX climate change hydrological impact Europe Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/41cc9b44249146b9b5dbbaa9f783fdf0
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:41cc9b44249146b9b5dbbaa9f783fdf0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:41cc9b44249146b9b5dbbaa9f783fdf02021-11-10T10:37:46ZEstimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections2624-937510.3389/frwa.2021.713537https://doaj.org/article/41cc9b44249146b9b5dbbaa9f783fdf02021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frwa.2021.713537/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2624-9375Ensemble projections of future changes in discharge over Europe show large variation. Several methods for performance-based weighting exist that have the potential to increase the robustness of the change signal. Here we use future projections of an ensemble of three hydrological models forced with climate datasets from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment - European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). The experiment is set-up for nine river basins spread over Europe that hold different climate and catchment characteristics. We evaluate the ensemble consistency and apply two weighting approaches; the Climate model Weighting by Independence and Performance (ClimWIP) that focuses on meteorological variables and the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) in our study applied to discharge statistics per basin. For basins with a strong climate signal, in Southern and Northern Europe, the consistency in the set of projections is large. For rivers in Central Europe the differences between models become more pronounced. Both weighting approaches assign high weights to single General Circulation Models (GCMs). The ClimWIP method results in ensemble mean weighted changes that differ only slightly from the non-weighted mean. The REA method influences the weighted mean more, but the weights highly vary from basin to basin. We see that high weights obtained through past good performance can provide deviating projections for the future. It is not apparent that the GCM signal dominates the overall change signal, i.e., there is no strong intra GCM consistency. However, both weighting methods favored projections from the same GCM.Frederiek C. Sperna WeilandRobrecht D. VisserRobrecht D. VisserRobrecht D. VisserPeter GreveBerny BisselinkLukas BrunnerAlbrecht H. WeertsAlbrecht H. WeertsFrontiers Media S.A.articleensemble projectionsperformance-based weightingEURO-CORDEXclimate changehydrological impactEuropeEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066ENFrontiers in Water, Vol 3 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	ensemble projections performance-based weighting EURO-CORDEX climate change hydrological impact Europe Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066
spellingShingle	ensemble projections performance-based weighting EURO-CORDEX climate change hydrological impact Europe Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland Robrecht D. Visser Robrecht D. Visser Robrecht D. Visser Peter Greve Berny Bisselink Lukas Brunner Albrecht H. Weerts Albrecht H. Weerts Estimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections
description	Ensemble projections of future changes in discharge over Europe show large variation. Several methods for performance-based weighting exist that have the potential to increase the robustness of the change signal. Here we use future projections of an ensemble of three hydrological models forced with climate datasets from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment - European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). The experiment is set-up for nine river basins spread over Europe that hold different climate and catchment characteristics. We evaluate the ensemble consistency and apply two weighting approaches; the Climate model Weighting by Independence and Performance (ClimWIP) that focuses on meteorological variables and the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) in our study applied to discharge statistics per basin. For basins with a strong climate signal, in Southern and Northern Europe, the consistency in the set of projections is large. For rivers in Central Europe the differences between models become more pronounced. Both weighting approaches assign high weights to single General Circulation Models (GCMs). The ClimWIP method results in ensemble mean weighted changes that differ only slightly from the non-weighted mean. The REA method influences the weighted mean more, but the weights highly vary from basin to basin. We see that high weights obtained through past good performance can provide deviating projections for the future. It is not apparent that the GCM signal dominates the overall change signal, i.e., there is no strong intra GCM consistency. However, both weighting methods favored projections from the same GCM.
format	article
author	Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland Robrecht D. Visser Robrecht D. Visser Robrecht D. Visser Peter Greve Berny Bisselink Lukas Brunner Albrecht H. Weerts Albrecht H. Weerts
author_facet	Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland Robrecht D. Visser Robrecht D. Visser Robrecht D. Visser Peter Greve Berny Bisselink Lukas Brunner Albrecht H. Weerts Albrecht H. Weerts
author_sort	Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland
title	Estimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections
title_short	Estimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections
title_full	Estimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections
title_fullStr	Estimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections
title_full_unstemmed	Estimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections
title_sort	estimating regionalized hydrological impacts of climate change over europe by performance-based weighting of cordex projections
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/41cc9b44249146b9b5dbbaa9f783fdf0
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Estimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections

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